New poll shows Franken leading Coleman
Lost in the media shuffle over Jesse Ventura's non-announcement announcement yesterday was a nugget of news about the very race Jesse ducked out of.
A new Rasmussen poll shows Al Franken with a 44-42 advantage over Norm Coleman. This is the first poll in memory that shows the former comedian ahead of the incumbent; hell, it's the first one in some time that shows positive movement from Franken.
In a week where Franken found out he's facing a new primary challenge, his campaign could use some good news. A few reasons for the Franken team to be hopeful and a few reasons for them to be skeptical after the jump.
The immediate concern is that this poll is an outlier. The DFL candidate has been moribund lately, both taking hits from multiple sources and just not showing much electoral life generally. His recent failure to gain against Coleman has led to murmurs of doubt that he can beat Coleman -- notably from Priscilla Lord Faris, who plans to take Franken on herself. However well-respected a poll is, it's just one poll.
But let's talk about poll accuracy. Besides his upward shift in the numbers from one month ago, Franken backers must be heartened by the poll's source. Rasmussen polls are widely considered one of the nation's most accurate sources of polling data. By the way, the Rasmussen man-in-charge is a Republican, so no liberal bias here either.
Another wild card to consider is the effect of the Jesse rumors:
Franken’s support has stayed between 43% and 45% in four straight polls. The current poll is by far the lowest level of support earned by the incumbent, suggesting that the rumblings of a possible Ventura campaign raised new possibilities for voters to consider. However, on Monday night, Ventura announced that he will not enter the campaign.
Momentum can be a factor in political campaigns. Can Franken use these new numbers to gain traction, or is this just another blip on the radar screen?
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