Tom Emmer again trails Democrats, this time in Star Tribune poll

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Mark Dayton showed the widest lead over Tom Emmer in the Star Tribune poll
Republican candidate for governor Tom Emmer has again come up with the short end of the stick in a statewide poll compared to his Democratic rivals. A Star Tribune poll released over the weekend shows Mark Dayton, Margaret Anderson Kelliher and Matt Entenza each besting Emmer in hypothetical match-ups. Of them all, Dayton enjoys the widest lead.

Emmer trailed all Democrats in a Fox 9/Rasmussen poll released July 19, and in a June poll by Decision Resources.

Star Tribune, Aug 1:

  • Dayton 40 percent, Emmer 30 percent, Horner 13 percent.
  • Kelliher 38 percent, Emmer 29 percent, Horner 13 percent.
  • Entenza 36 percent, Emmer 31 percent, Horner 15 percent.

Fox 9 /Rasmussen, July 19:

  • Dayton 40 percent, Emmer 36 percent, Horner 10 percent.
  • Kelliher 40 percent, Emmer 35 percent, Horner 11 percent.
  • Entenza 37 percent, Emmer 36 percent, Horner 12 percent.

Decision Resources, June 8:

  • Dayton 40 percent, Emmer 28 percent, Horner 18 percent.
  • Kelliher 38 percent, Emmer 28 percent, Horner 17 percent.
  • Entenza 34 percent, Emmer 27 percent, Horner 19 percent.

Eric Ostermeier at the Humphrey Institute's Smart Politics blog points out that while Emmer may be trailing right now, he's doing no worse than Tim Pawlenty did at this time in his first run for the governorship.

That said, Pawlenty likely benfited from having a former Democrat, Tim Penny, running on the IP ticket and siphoning independent voters away from his Democratic rival, Roger Moe.

This time around, Emmer is faced with an IP candidate, Tom Horner, who used to be a Republican, and Horner may be taking away independent voters from Emmer's own stridently conservative candidacy.

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