Mark Dayton leads Tom Emmer by 9% in new poll

Thumbnail image for daytomemmer2shot200.jpg
Mark Dayton, left, leads Tom Emmer, right, in another poll.
DFLer Mark Dayton leads Republican Tom Emmer in the race for governor by 9 percentage points in a Star Tribune opinion poll released over the weekend.

With one exception, that result continues Dayton's pattern of beating or tying Emmer for the lead since statewide polling began earlier this year.

Independent Tom Horner remaining in third place with a small but growing share of approval.

That exception came last week in a Rasmussen poll that gave Emmer a single percentage point lead over Dayton. And that narrow lead was well within the poll's margin of error. (See below.)

Not surprisingly, when the Strib released its results, rightbloggers immediately blasted it as biased. And Team Emmer insisted the situation remains a "competitive race."

The Strib and leftbloggers saw a different explanation: Cell phone users, who are thought to be more likely to vote Democratic. Rasmussen excluded cell phone users from its survey, while the Strib included them.

Here are the results of statewide polls so far (undecideds make up the balance to reach 100 percent in each hypothetical race):

Star Tribune, Sept. 26

  • Dayton 39 percent, Emmer 30 percent, Horner 18 percent

Rasmussen, Sept. 24

  • Emmer 42 percent, Dayton 41 percent, Horner 9 percent

KSTP/SurveyUSA, Sept. 15

  • Dayton 38 percent, Emmer 36 percent, Horner 18 percent

MPR/Humphrey Institute, Aug. 31

  • Dayton 34 percent, Emmer 34 percent, Horner, 13 percent

The following polls took place before the nominating conventions:

KSTP/SurveyUSA, Aug. 5

  • Dayton 46 percent, Emmer 32 percent, Horner 9 percent
  • Kelliher 39 percent, Emmer 33 percent, Horner 12 percent
  • Entenza 38 percent, Emmer 33 percent, Horner 12 percent

Star Tribune, Aug 1:

  • Dayton 40 percent, Emmer 30 percent, Horner 13 percent
  • Kelliher 38 percent, Emmer 29 percent, Horner 13 percent
  • Entenza 36 percent, Emmer 31 percent, Horner 15 percent

Fox 9/Rasmussen, July 19:

  • Dayton 40 percent, Emmer 36 percent, Horner 10 percent
  • Kelliher 40 percent, Emmer 35 percent, Horner 11 percent
  • Entenza 37 percent, Emmer 36 percent, Horner 12 percent

Decision Resources, June 8:

  • Dayton 40 percent, Emmer 28 percent, Horner 18 percent
  • Kelliher 38 percent, Emmer 28 percent, Horner 17 percent
  • Entenza 34 percent, Emmer 27 percent, Horner 19 percent


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