Tom Emmer trailing Mark Dayton by double digits in new poll

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Mark Dayton gets help from Tom Horner
For the second time in one week, a new statewide poll shows Democrat Mark Dayton pulling ahead of Republican Tom Emmer in the race for governor. And this time he has a double-digit lead.

The numbers from the just-released MPR/Humphrey Institute poll also show that Independence Party candidate Tom Horner is sucking the wind out out of Emmer's sails.

Dayton leads Emmer 38 percent to 27 percent, and Horner brings up the rear with 16 percent. However:

Horner is now drawing 22% of Republicans, starting to fulfill his plan to raid the GOP base.

Just a month ago, another MPR/Humphrey Institute poll showed Dayton and Emmer in a neck and neck race.

There were some other surprising findings.

We hear a lot about angry voters turning their backs on Democrats. But in Minnesota, folks unhappy with the state's direction said they supported Dayton over Emmer by 40-27 percent. Dayton is also winning voters who are most concerned about the economy and jobs.

And the so-called enthusiasm gap, predicted to help Republicans in November, appears to have vanished in Minnesota. The poll showed equally high interest in the election among members of both major parties, and more Democrats than Republicans said they intended to vote.

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On Sunday, a Star Tribune poll gave Dayton a 9 percentage point lead over Emmer.

Here are the results of statewide polls so far (undecideds make up the balance to reach 100 percent in each hypothetical race):

MPR/Humphrey Institute, Sept. 29

  • Dayton 38 percent
  • Emmer 27 percent
  • Horner 16 percent

Star Tribune, Sept. 26

  • Dayton 39 percent
  • Emmer 30 percent
  • Horner 18 percent

Rasmussen, Sept. 24

  • Emmer 42 percent
  • Dayton 41 percent
  • Horner 9 percent

KSTP/SurveyUSA, Sept. 15

  • Dayton 38 percent
  • Emmer 36 percent
  • Horner 18 percent

MPR/Humphrey Institute, Aug. 31

  • Dayton 34 percent
  • Emmer 34 percent
  • Horner, 13 percent

The following polls took place before the nominating conventions:

KSTP/SurveyUSA, Aug. 5

  • Dayton 46 percent, Emmer 32 percent, Horner 9 percent
  • Kelliher 39 percent, Emmer 33 percent, Horner 12 percent
  • Entenza 38 percent, Emmer 33 percent, Horner 12 percent

Star Tribune, Aug 1:

  • Dayton 40 percent, Emmer 30 percent, Horner 13 percent
  • Kelliher 38 percent, Emmer 29 percent, Horner 13 percent
  • Entenza 36 percent, Emmer 31 percent, Horner 15 percent

Fox 9/Rasmussen, July 19:

  • Dayton 40 percent, Emmer 36 percent, Horner 10 percent
  • Kelliher 40 percent, Emmer 35 percent, Horner 11 percent
  • Entenza 37 percent, Emmer 36 percent, Horner 12 percent

Decision Resources, June 8:

  • Dayton 40 percent, Emmer 28 percent, Horner 18 percent
  • Kelliher 38 percent, Emmer 28 percent, Horner 17 percent
  • Entenza 34 percent, Emmer 27 percent, Horner 19 percent


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