Mark Dayton leads Tom Emmer by 12 points in latest poll

A bad year for Democrats, but maybe not for Mark Dayton.

Conventional wisdom has it that this is going to be a tough election cycle for Democrats around the country, but the Minnesota governor's race may be shaping up to buck the trend.

Two polls in under a week have now given DFLer Mark Dayton a double-digit lead in the race against his Republican rival, Tom Emmer. And Dayton has led all but one poll since August, albeit by a sometimes very slim margin.

The MPR/Humphrey Institute poll released this morning gave Dayton a 41-29 percent lead over Emmer. IPer Tom Horner notched just 11 percent.

The results show that Dayton is leading in part because Democrats are more fired up about the election in Minnesota than their party brethren elsewhere across the country this year, and compared to 2006 when Republican Tim Pawlenty beat Democrat Mike Hatch.

Dayton also has a huge advantage over Emmer when it comes to voters who say the national economy is in poor shape.

But Emmer leads the pessimists. When people were asked whether they thought their own economic situation would be worse in a year, 46 percent broke his way.

MPR

Download and read the full poll results by clicking here.

Previous Polls:

St. Cloud State University, Oct. 25

• Dayton 40 percent
• Emmer 30 percent
• Horner 19 percent

Star Tribune, Oct. 23

• Dayton 41 percent
• Emmer 34 percent
• Horner 13 percent

Rasmussen, Oct. 22

• Dayton 44 percent
• Tom Emmer 41 percent
• Tom Horner 10 percent

KSTP/Survey USA, Oct. 15

• Mark Dayton: 42 percent
• Tom Emmer: 37 percent
• Tom Horner: 14 percent

Rasmussen, Oct. 8

• Dayton 40 percent
• Emmer 38 percent
• Horner 15 percent

MPR/Humphrey Institute, Sept. 29

• Dayton 38 percent
• Emmer 27 percent
• Horner 16 percent

Star Tribune, Sept. 26

• Dayton 39 percent
• Emmer 30 percent
• Horner 18 percent

Rasmussen, Sept. 24

• Emmer 42 percent
• Dayton 41 percent
• Horner 9 percent

KSTP/SurveyUSA, Sept. 15

• Dayton 38 percent
• Emmer 36 percent
• Horner 18 percent

MPR/Humphrey Institute, Aug. 31

• Dayton 34 percent
• Emmer 34 percent
• Horner, 13 percent

The following polls took place before the nominating conventions:

KSTP/SurveyUSA, Aug. 5

• Dayton 46 percent, Emmer 32 percent, Horner 9 percent
• Kelliher 39 percent, Emmer 33 percent, Horner 12 percent
• Entenza 38 percent, Emmer 33 percent, Horner 12 percent

Star Tribune, Aug 1:

• Dayton 40 percent, Emmer 30 percent, Horner 13 percent
• Kelliher 38 percent, Emmer 29 percent, Horner 13 percent
• Entenza 36 percent, Emmer 31 percent, Horner 15 percent

Fox 9/Rasmussen, July 19:

• Dayton 40 percent, Emmer 36 percent, Horner 10 percent
• Kelliher 40 percent, Emmer 35 percent, Horner 11 percent
• Entenza 37 percent, Emmer 36 percent, Horner 12 percent

Decision Resources, June 8:

• Dayton 40 percent, Emmer 28 percent, Horner 18 percent
• Kelliher 38 percent, Emmer 28 percent, Horner 17 percent
• Entenza 34 percent, Emmer 27 percent, Horner 19 percent