Tim Pawlenty may be a drag on Tom Emmer's campaign

Tim Pawlenty: Is this guy the problem?

Public Policy Polling's Tom Jensen asks that in the wake of his survey released over the weekend giving Democrat Mark Dayton a 43-40 percentage point lead over Emmer. IPer Tom Horner trails with 15 percent.

The results by themselves merely confirm a pattern since the August primaries: With one exception, Dayton has led the race. Sometimes it's been by a hair's breadth, sometimes by as much as 12 percentage points, depending on the pollster and the time period.

But in a larger sense, the question is, Why? Isn't this the year that Republicans are supposed to be riding a wave of voter disgust with Democrats?

Not in this race, Jensen says. Here's why:

Only 43 percent of voters in the state approve of the job Pawlenty is doing to 50 percent who disapprove. And the state expresses little enthusiasm for a 2012 Pawlenty White House bid with only 23 percent supportive of the idea and 59 percent opposed to it. It's a close race and could go either way but Pawlenty fatigue might help put Dayton over the top.

Download the full Public Policy Polling results here.

Previous Polls:

KUSA/SurveyUSA, Oct. 29

• Dayton: 39 percent
• Emmer: 38 percent
• Horner: 13 percent

MPR/Humphrey Institute, Oct. 28

• Dayton: 41 percent
• Emmer: 29 percent
• Horner: 11 percent

St. Cloud State University, Oct. 25

• Dayton 40 percent
• Emmer 30 percent
• Horner 19 percent

Star Tribune, Oct. 23

• Dayton 41 percent
• Emmer 34 percent
• Horner 13 percent

Rasmussen, Oct. 22

• Dayton 44 percent
• Emmer 41 percent
• Horner 10 percent

KSTP/Survey USA, Oct. 15

• Dayton: 42 percent
• Emmer: 37 percent
• Horner: 14 percent

Rasmussen, Oct. 8

• Dayton 40 percent
• Emmer 38 percent
• Horner 15 percent

MPR/Humphrey Institute, Sept. 29

• Dayton 38 percent
• Emmer 27 percent
• Horner 16 percent

Star Tribune, Sept. 26

• Dayton 39 percent
• Emmer 30 percent
• Horner 18 percent

Rasmussen, Sept. 24

• Emmer 42 percent
• Dayton 41 percent
• Horner 9 percent

KSTP/SurveyUSA, Sept. 15

• Dayton 38 percent
• Emmer 36 percent
• Horner 18 percent

MPR/Humphrey Institute, Aug. 31

• Dayton 34 percent
• Emmer 34 percent
• Horner, 13 percent

The following polls took place before the nominating conventions:

KSTP/SurveyUSA, Aug. 5

• Dayton 46 percent, Emmer 32 percent, Horner 9 percent
• Kelliher 39 percent, Emmer 33 percent, Horner 12 percent
• Entenza 38 percent, Emmer 33 percent, Horner 12 percent

Star Tribune, Aug 1:

• Dayton 40 percent, Emmer 30 percent, Horner 13 percent
• Kelliher 38 percent, Emmer 29 percent, Horner 13 percent
• Entenza 36 percent, Emmer 31 percent, Horner 15 percent

Fox 9/Rasmussen, July 19:

• Dayton 40 percent, Emmer 36 percent, Horner 10 percent
• Kelliher 40 percent, Emmer 35 percent, Horner 11 percent
• Entenza 37 percent, Emmer 36 percent, Horner 12 percent

Decision Resources, June 8:

• Dayton 40 percent, Emmer 28 percent, Horner 18 percent
• Kelliher 38 percent, Emmer 28 percent, Horner 17 percent
• Entenza 34 percent, Emmer 27 percent, Horner 19 percent