Tim Pawlenty may be a drag on Tom Emmer's campaign

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Tim Pawlenty: Is this guy the problem?
Is outgoing Gov. Tim Pawlenty proving to be a drag on Republican Tom Emmer's campaign for the governor's mansion?

Public Policy Polling's Tom Jensen asks that in the wake of his survey released over the weekend giving Democrat Mark Dayton a 43-40 percentage point lead over Emmer. IPer Tom Horner trails with 15 percent.

The results by themselves merely confirm a pattern since the August primaries: With one exception, Dayton has led the race. Sometimes it's been by a hair's breadth, sometimes by as much as 12 percentage points, depending on the pollster and the time period.

But in a larger sense, the question is, Why? Isn't this the year that Republicans are supposed to be riding a wave of voter disgust with Democrats?

Not in this race, Jensen says. Here's why:

Only 43 percent of voters in the state approve of the job Pawlenty is doing to 50 percent who disapprove. And the state expresses little enthusiasm for a 2012 Pawlenty White House bid with only 23 percent supportive of the idea and 59 percent opposed to it. It's a close race and could go either way but Pawlenty fatigue might help put Dayton over the top.

Download the full Public Policy Polling results here.

Previous Polls:

KUSA/SurveyUSA, Oct. 29

  • Dayton: 39 percent
  • Emmer: 38 percent
  • Horner: 13 percent

MPR/Humphrey Institute, Oct. 28

  • Dayton: 41 percent
  • Emmer: 29 percent
  • Horner: 11 percent

St. Cloud State University, Oct. 25

  • Dayton 40 percent
  • Emmer 30 percent
  • Horner 19 percent

Star Tribune, Oct. 23

  • Dayton 41 percent
  • Emmer 34 percent
  • Horner 13 percent

Rasmussen, Oct. 22

  • Dayton 44 percent
  • Emmer 41 percent
  • Horner 10 percent

KSTP/Survey USA, Oct. 15

  • Dayton: 42 percent
  • Emmer: 37 percent
  • Horner: 14 percent

Rasmussen, Oct. 8

  • Dayton 40 percent
  • Emmer 38 percent
  • Horner 15 percent

MPR/Humphrey Institute, Sept. 29

  • Dayton 38 percent
  • Emmer 27 percent
  • Horner 16 percent

Star Tribune, Sept. 26

  • Dayton 39 percent
  • Emmer 30 percent
  • Horner 18 percent

Rasmussen, Sept. 24

  • Emmer 42 percent
  • Dayton 41 percent
  • Horner 9 percent

KSTP/SurveyUSA, Sept. 15

  • Dayton 38 percent
  • Emmer 36 percent
  • Horner 18 percent

MPR/Humphrey Institute, Aug. 31

  • Dayton 34 percent
  • Emmer 34 percent
  • Horner, 13 percent

The following polls took place before the nominating conventions:

KSTP/SurveyUSA, Aug. 5

  • Dayton 46 percent, Emmer 32 percent, Horner 9 percent
  • Kelliher 39 percent, Emmer 33 percent, Horner 12 percent
  • Entenza 38 percent, Emmer 33 percent, Horner 12 percent

Star Tribune, Aug 1:

  • Dayton 40 percent, Emmer 30 percent, Horner 13 percent
  • Kelliher 38 percent, Emmer 29 percent, Horner 13 percent
  • Entenza 36 percent, Emmer 31 percent, Horner 15 percent

Fox 9/Rasmussen, July 19:

  • Dayton 40 percent, Emmer 36 percent, Horner 10 percent
  • Kelliher 40 percent, Emmer 35 percent, Horner 11 percent
  • Entenza 37 percent, Emmer 36 percent, Horner 12 percent

Decision Resources, June 8:

  • Dayton 40 percent, Emmer 28 percent, Horner 18 percent
  • Kelliher 38 percent, Emmer 28 percent, Horner 17 percent
  • Entenza 34 percent, Emmer 27 percent, Horner 19 percent

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