Michele Bachmann "likely to win re-election this year," according to new independent polling

bachmann graves.jpg
If Jim Graves can't beat Bachmann, who can?
A Jim Graves poll released last month portrayed his race against Michele Bachmann as a within-the-margin-of-error tossup. But new independent polling suggests the race isn't as close as it seemed in September.

SEE ALSO:
-- Jim Graves to Bradlee Dean: "Michele Bachmann is a wonderful person"
-- Unfactcheckable Michele Bachmann touts KSTP's fact-check of misleading Jim Graves ad [VIDEO]


It also reveals that the 6th Congressional District is a lot more conservative than folks living in the Twin Cities may want to believe.

Last week, Survey USA called 700 registered voters in the 6th, some on land lines and some on cell phones. The margin of error for the poll is 4.1 percent.

Here are some of the highlights:
If the election for U.S. House of Representatives from Minnesota's 6th Congressional District were today, would you vote for... (candidate names rotated) Republican Michele Bachmann? Or DFL Candidate Jim Graves?

50% Michele Bachmann (R)
41% Jim Graves (DFL)
9% Undecided

Is your opinion of Michele Bachmann ... favorable? Unfavorable? Neutral? Or, do you have no opinion one way or the other?

40% Favorable
40% Unfavorable
15% Neutral
5% No Opinion

Who do you agree with more on social issues?

46% Michele Bachmann (R)
39% Jim Graves (DFL)
15% Not Sure

If the election for President were today, would you vote for ... (choices rotated) Republican Mitt Romney? Democrat Barack Obama? Or one of the other candidates?

53% Mitt Romney (R)
36% Barack Obama (D)
5% Other
5% Undecided
LeftMN's Tony Petangelo acknowledges the new polling is bad news for the Graves campaign, and notes that Bachmann's recent wave of TV attack ads could be eroding Graves' popularity in the 6th.
Regardless of their differences one thing [all] three polls agree on is that Michele Bachmann is really close to 50%+1. There have been three polls released of this race [two internal Graves polls, and the new SurveyUSA one] and Michele Bachmann has been at 48%, 48% and now 50%. Even in the one that had Jim Graves down by only two, Michele Bachmann was at 48%...

If you're wondering, SurveyUSA's polls of Minnesota congressional districts have been very accurate in the past. In 2010 they polled both Minnesota's first and eighth congressional districts right before the election. The first district poll showed Tim Walz winning 50-41, he actually won 49-44. The eighth district poll showed Jim Oberstar winning 47-46, he of course lost to Chip Cravaack 48-47...

This means that Michele Bachmann, barring some unforeseen development, is likely going to win re-election this year.
It's up to you, 6th District voters. Most of us down here in the cities think the world would be a better place without Michele in power, but at the same time, watching her uniquely entertaining brand of crazy ride off into the sunset would be bittersweet for those of us who enjoy the spectacle.


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38 comments
FactCheck5
FactCheck5

Jim Graves is Oily! Funny how the Left hates Millionaires unless they are Leftist! Also funny how the Media can shape the minds of people, about people they never met.

Democrat: YES

Leftist: NO

Gay Marriage: NO

Voter ID: YES

Jim Graves: NO

Michele Bachmann: YES

Union: YES

Obama: NO 

 

Cori Omundson
Cori Omundson

I cannot believe that people still want to re-elect this ridiculous woman. I am so thankful I am not in her district, but am still saddened and embarrassed by the fact that she represents our state.

EdnaRamsey6
EdnaRamsey6

@skyflame1 @citypages If she doesn't win it will be a real loss for American

redpens68
redpens68

@skyflame1 @citypages I'm hoping for her reelection. We need Michele Bachmann for Congress

Hambone2
Hambone2

how can people in the 6th keep voting for this self serving, ignorant, lying, bigot?

Curtis Meyer
Curtis Meyer

Districts 3, 6, and 2 have that anti-metro complex. They're full of people who want those urban advantages, but can't handle the downfalls that go along with those advantages. There's not enough space to build a mcmansion and a mega-church downtown. The further you get from the metro, the more the "F" in DFL kicks in.

Noah Hanson
Noah Hanson

In that district most just look for the R and check the box. It doesn't matter what she says or does.

Trevor Ludwig
Trevor Ludwig

Yeah, we, as americans, are that idiotic. I believe it.

Erica Anderson
Erica Anderson

Another Bachman victory wouldn't come as a surprise to me. Her district has been gerrymandered in her favor.

Sara Mobrei
Sara Mobrei

They have spent a bajillion dollars on anti-Graves attack ads, but I haven't seen/heard much from the other side. A lot of folks probably vote for her just because she's familiar and have heard more negative than positive about Graves. Some of the 6th probably votes for her just because she's entertaining ;) I know many in her district who are incredibly frustrated at her cockroach-like ability to keep coming back despite being such an absurd person. It's not as if the 6th is extremely conservative overall (at least it didn't seem that way when I lived there), so I am quite surprised by how popular she remains.

Hoffman Humphrey
Hoffman Humphrey

Bachmannistan über alles? It is not worth the entertainment value.

Jessi Brennan
Jessi Brennan

A joke....just like everything that comes out of her mouth

Children
Children

The Sixth might the single most ignorant district in the Midwest. Stunningly stupid people.

Adam Garlie
Adam Garlie

The people that vote for her must not pay any attention to the crap she spews out of her mouth, not saying the other guy will be any better but...REALLY!!!

barefoot_612
barefoot_612

@citypages ish. She is an absolute embarrassment. Vote #Graves

Jean Claude Cau
Jean Claude Cau

I'd bet that she will win her district by at least 7-10 points.

ConscienceCit
ConscienceCit

@redpens68 @skyflame1 @citypages @skyflame1 @citypages I'm hoping for her reelection. We need @MicheleBachmann for Congress @talkradio200

EdnaRamsey6
EdnaRamsey6

@redpens68 @skyflame1 @citypages AMEN

mingtran
mingtran topcommenter

@Children : MB may be the most ignorant person in any room, but that's a bold statement to say the 6th is the most ignorant district. Populists are generally the most easily swayed, not many up there. Populists tend to congregate in more urban settings.

talkradio200
talkradio200

@ConscienceCit @redpens68 @skyflame1 @citypages We need @MicheleBachmann in Congress, she's a fighter. #IStandWithBachmann

MicheleBachmann
MicheleBachmann topcommenter

 @mingtran  When you elect a homophobic bigot who is married to a closeted gay man that instantly puts you in the running for most ignorant district.    Anyone that votes for Michele Bachmann is a stupid bigot.

mingtran
mingtran topcommenter

 @MicheleBachmann : he raided more legal dispensaries in three years than Bush did in four, all while promising in his campaign that drug laws were for states to decide, not federal. It's funny how the most aloof are usually the most afraid of Google. This has all been discussed before, don't be dumb.

MicheleBachmann
MicheleBachmann topcommenter

 @keny1  You support Republicans because you are openly racist.   That doesn't make you level headed. .  It's funny that your hatred of minorities overcomes Republicans hatred of you.   If you are really gay you are seriously one of the most messed up people on the planet.   A gay racist Republican?   That has to be nothing but mental illness.  Romney hired a gay man and fired him instantly because Republicans were outraged.  He is a coward, he will set gay rights back.  You are crazy and stupid to vote for people that hate you. 

MicheleBachmann
MicheleBachmann topcommenter

 @mingtran Please cite an example of one "weed law" Barack Obama has proposed or supports. 

Kieron
Kieron

 @keny1  A man and a women, eh?  Who redefining marriage now?

keny1
keny1

 @Hambone2  And if you believe that, I have some oceanfront property to sell you in North Dakota.  And BTW, not every gay person is a Democrat, unlike what Al Frankin may have told you.  Level-headed gay people are more concerned about the economy and the deficit than gay marriage.  And you are looking at one of them.

Hambone2
Hambone2

 @keny1  @mingtran he didnt have to change it stance on gay marriage. who were gays going to vote for romney? he did it because its the right thing to do!

keny1
keny1

 @mingtran You also forgot to mention that Obama once defined marriage as a union between a man and a women.  That is, until he conveniently changed his stance right before the election to get the gay vote. 

mingtran
mingtran topcommenter

@MicheleBachmann: with that same philosophy, half the US population is ignorant for supporting a guy like Obama. Obama is at least an ex weedster (maybe he still smokes) that supports tougher marijuana laws than Bush. Promised to bring troops home but instead extended deployments, proposed Obamacare that will create one of the biggest boondoggles in aamerican history all while bankrupting the country and assuring people it's ok because other countries do it. Created more deficit in three years than all other US presidents combined. I could go on, but I digress.

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