11th-hour surprise: Voter ID, marriage amendments both set to fail, says latest polling

Categories: Voter ID
voter fraud mpls.jpg
Michael-Carlos Mitchell (@stmichael36)
These voter fraud ads aren't having their desired effect, according to the latest polling.
Voter ID has looked like a sure bet to be approved since it first became clear the amendment would be on this year's ballot -- until this weekend.

MORE VOTER ID COVERAGE:
-- Minnesota Majority wants you to follow buses leaving polling places on election day
-- Majority of MN college students favor voter ID amendment that could disenfranchise 70 percent of them
-- Mike Freeman on GOPers making Franken-Coleman voter fraud allegations: "They are just liars"


The last round of Public Policy Polling's work here in Minnesota this campaign season contains an 11th-hour surprise: Both voter ID and the marriage amendment look set to fail, with both measures trailing by margins comfortably outside the margin of error.

The survey finds Obama comfortably ahead of Romney (53-45) and Amy Klobuchar crushing Kurt Bills (62-32), but those aren't surprises. What is surprising, however, is what the polling has to say about the amendments. From PPP:
We find both narrowly trailing. 45% of voters say they'll vote for the gay marriage ban, compared to 52% who are opposed to it. And 46% say they'll support the voter ID amendment to 51% who are opposed. Public opinion has shifted against both of these measures in the last month. In early October voters were only against the marriage ban 46/49 and they supported the voter ID question 51/43.

The marriage amendment is trailing because of a massive generational divide. Seniors support it by a 57/40 margin but every other age group opposes it, including a 36/62 margin against it among voters under 30. Republicans support it (79%) and Democrats oppose it (76%) in almost equal numbers, but independents tip the balance by opposing it 41/55.

The reason the voter ID amendment now appears to be in serious trouble is that Democrats (82%) are just as opposed to it as Republicans (82%) are supportive of it. We've found Republicans strongly supportive of the concept all year, but Democrats have moved sharply against it from 36% support in June to now just 14%. And independents have shifted over the last five months from being very much in favor (58/35) to evenly divided (49/49).
PPP was founded by Democratic pollster Dean Debnam and its survey results are known to skew somewhat towards the left. For instance, in June, the New York Times' Nate Silver found that PPP "shows results are are about three percentage points more favorable to Mr. Obama than the consensus of surveys." But on the whole, PPP's work is regarded as reputable, and thanks to a large sample size, the margin of error for the latest Minnesota poll (conducted November 2 and 3) is just 2.9 percent.

Has public opinion really decisively turned against voter ID just in the nick of time, or are PPP's survey results inaccurate? At this point, we won't have to wait long to find out.

:::: UPDATE ::::

-- 8:45 a.m. -- New survey results from SurveyUSA also show both amendments failing, which takes some steam out of the 'PPP's polls show liberal bias' argument.

SEE ALSO: Madonna urges Minnesota fans: "Vote No on the Marriage Amendment!" [VIDEO]


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46 comments
mrsshorpee
mrsshorpee

The marriage amendment vote will not be won by overwhelming majority, but it will still go to the yes vote.  The majority of Minnesotans are not as naive as to give in to the illogical, emotional, hateful tactics of the radical minority who is pushing this agenda.  Even with the liberal education system having dumbed down the population on the whole, the majority is still not gullible to give in to bully and emotional tactics.  Of course, homosexuality is a very small percentage of the population and the only way to get the message across is to use bully tactics and sappy, emotional propaganda.  If this were a legitimate issue that anyone really cared about other than a minority on the radical left, it would actually be in issue that could be talked about and debated and discussed.  The left is afraid of debate and logical debate on the issue and is therefore only left to shallow, emotional appeals and bully propaganda.  It's a slow process and won't be successful this go around.

swmnguy
swmnguy topcommenter

I think the Marriage Amendment backers jumped the shark trying to say kids would be taught homosexuality in the schools.  Actual parents with kids in the schools can tell how overwrought that was, and it got people thinking about all the gay-couple families they actually know, and how little damage and how much good they do for the community.  As for the Voter ID amendment, it's so sloppily written and poorly thought-out, I think most people can see at least a handful of major problems it causes and no major problems it solves.

green23
green23 topcommenter

Though SUSA's numbers are closer than PPP, SUSA included cell phones in their sample. Since PPP's sample is much larger, it isn't crazy to believe that PPP is closer to the truth than SUSA. IOW, if PPP had included cell phones in its larger sample, the margin could very well be slightly larger than their current figures show.

 

Also note than Silver's remark refers to polling of Obama compared against *other pollsters* -- not against *final results*.

 

PPP also goes to great pains to sample rural areas proportionally. SUSA is much less transparent about their methods.

 

Even if the Voter ID Amendment passes, the enabling legislation will be written by a Legislature that is almost certain to be controlled by Democrats. It will also be tied up courts for so long that that enabling legislation probably won't be passed by 2014, which means that it won't go into effect during the midterms.

 

Remember, any ballot cast that doesn't include a vote on an Amendment is counted as a "No" vote.

MicheleBachmann
MicheleBachmann topcommenter

That is so awesome.  If I was a Tea Party idiot that barely won in 2010 I would be crapping my pants seeing this.  

Chris Pekkala
Chris Pekkala

Perhaps Public Policy Polling leans as left as Paul claims. But it's also possible the voters in Minnesota don't hate gays as much as you think. If any state is finally going to reject one of these defense of marriage amendments, it wouldn't exactly be a shock if it was Minnesota.

Yankee Doodle Pablo
Yankee Doodle Pablo

Just go ahead and Google Public Policy Polling. They write good fiction.

andrewj41
andrewj41

@jonmarcbauer Wow! That's great to see they'll both fail.

solace
solace

@micahspieler @citypages that headline is insanely misleading

Yankee Doodle Pablo
Yankee Doodle Pablo

Public Policy Polling, the firm that did this poll, is about the most liberal polling agency West of Beijing. This is just another lame assed attempt to dishearten voters.

ajm6792
ajm6792

@atrupar Pleasantly surprised on ID, but there's been a steady trend that way as people have moved past the "common sense" 1st impression

teddanson
teddanson

 @mrsshorpee do everyone a favor and kill yourself.  Nobody cares what you think. At all 

mrsshorpee
mrsshorpee

 @swmnguy I agree with you partically, swmnguy.  This idea that homosexuality will now be taught in schools is just an odd argument that makes no logical sense at all.  Homosexuality is already taught in school and the radical left has made great strides in infiltrating education.  There is no way that any school in the state would not bow down to the homosexual agenda; they are too afraid of the issue.  To say that homosexuality would just START to be taught in school is an illogical argument that makes no sense at all.

solace
solace

@andrewj41 @jonmarcbauer as much as i’d love to buy it… i don’t. i foresee the Marriage Amendment losing slightly, Voter ID passing.

jonmbauer
jonmbauer

@andrewj41 I always wonder about polls like this. And there have been sooooo many this political season. #Hopeful

keny1
keny1

 @teddanson  I think you need to do everyone a favor and get your Xanax refilled.

mrsshorpee
mrsshorpee

 @teddanson Ok, let's add another tactic to the leftist  toolbox: Lying.  Of course many people care what I think.  This is why this issue will be defeated.  If no one cared what I thought,  then the amendment would be defeated by a great majority and it would be a non-issue.  Most Minnesotans know that you can't debate or talk civility or encounter any tolerance or diversity on the radical left  The radical left is the most intolerant minority there is and that's why they realize they will never get anywhere by normal, civil, honest, non-insane tactics.  The only way to ever push their issues is to cater to sappy, emotionally led people who don't think rationally and to use the bully pulpit to force their issue on the rest of society. I do always chuckle though at the left's funny humor.  Anytime I see a "Diversity" I literally do chuckle out loud.  It is funny that the most intolerant people imaginable have use this as a slogan.  LOL, I do respect them for this self-deprecating jab at themselves.

mrsshorpee
mrsshorpee

 @teddanson Thanks for confirming what my point, Mr. Danson.  You cannot make a valid, cogent point or engage in civil, honest debate.  Your only way to push your agenda is to use vulgar, bully-like tactics.  Once again, if this were an issue that anyone other than the minority radical leftists actually cared about, you'd actually have seen debate and discourage and statesmanship on the issue.  The only way to push these issues that most of society couldn't care less about is to use emotional appeals and bully tactics to wear down any opposition.  Any sane debate on the issue is feared and would get nowhere, so this is the only tactic to use. 

Kieron
Kieron

 @mrsshorpee  Talk about illogical, what with your 'radical left' arguments.  Sorry, ma'am, but your worldview is going the way of the dinosaurs and you know it.

andrewj41
andrewj41

@solace @jonmarcbauer I thought the ID item had big passing numbers... Hopefully the marriage amendment fails.

jonmbauer
jonmbauer

@solace @andrewj41 That's what I'm expecting. This way we can be on par with Mississippi (the only other state with VoterID in their const.)

keny1
keny1

 @mrsshorpee  Of course they use the term "Diversity" as their weapon.  The term means "to divert"; or "to divide", and that is exactly what the radical left is trying to do to this country.  Their ultimate goal, as you have suggested, is to let the minority rule the majority.  I personally could care less if the Marriage Amendment passes or not, however, I'm voting against it for one simple reason: So I don't ever have to fucking hear about this topic ever again.  The radial left truly are insane.  But this is beyond the scope of the gay marriage issue. They will never admit it, but they hate this country and everything it was founded upon. It is because of these people that the Pledge of Allegiance have been eliminated in schools.  The term "melting pot" has been replaced with "mixed salad", because "melting pot" insinuates assimilation, and according to the radical left, it is "racist" to expect immigrants to assimilate into American culture. The radical left hates the free market system and entrepreneurship.  If a person becomes wealthy due to investing or starting a business, they are labeled as "greedy".  Yet, they have no problem with irresponsible people having babies that they cannot afford to take care of and live off the welfare dole. According to the radical left, these people are "victims of the greedy wealthy".  When in reality, they are victims of not being able to keep their legs closed and keeping their peckers in their pants.  But you can't tell the radical left that.

 

They oppose the Voter ID bill because it "disenfranchises" certain people from voting.  The only people it disenfranchises are illegal immigrants and those with felony records. But the radical left knows very well that these populations would vote Democrat if given the opportunity. The radical left would have no problem with these people illegally voting.  Admittedly, I do not believe that voter fraud is rampant, but I will vote yes on this bill, because the integrity of the voting process should be of the utmost importance.  Even if only one person in the entire nation votes illegally, the system has failed.  If my tax dollars can afford to support welfare mooches and corporate bailouts, it can afford to provide free I.D.'s for people to vote.

 

The radical left believe that they are entitled to things that other people have worked hard for.  They believe in no personal responsibility or accountability.  If they make bad decisions in life, it's always "someone else's fault".  Like their hero Obama, they like to blame others for their failure. However, I do not hate them.  If you really think about it, you should actually feel sorry for them.  They are so disconnected from the reality of the real world, it is actually pathetic.

 

And finally, as a Republican, I should point out that the radical right is equally as pathetic as the radical left.  The irony?  Both of these sub-cultures are looking for the same thing: Entitlement off of other people's hard work.  Yes, these people may make up a small percentage of the population, but they are both equally dangerous nonetheless.   

 

 

keny1
keny1

 @Kieron  So you are saying that the majority of the world's population agrees with the acceptance of gay marriage?  Do you have any facts to back up your "argument"?

steveskavnak
steveskavnak

@jonmarcbauer @andrewj41 @solace Exactly. And they will undoubtedly be involved in post-Election Day amendment discussion.

jonmbauer
jonmbauer

@steveskavnak @andrewj41 @solace that's the easiest area to skim over.

steveskavnak
steveskavnak

@andrewj41 @jonmarcbauer @solace I also hope that people are reading up on the judges on their ballots.

jonmbauer
jonmbauer

@andrewj41 @solace @steveskavnak Or simply not vote. I can't imagine not having an opinion on this.

andrewj41
andrewj41

@jonmarcbauer @solace @steveskavnak I just hope that if people are undecided, they leave it blank.

jonmbauer
jonmbauer

@andrewj41 @solace @steveskavnak that's been one benefit of grad school, I havent' had time for tv, but I've seen a few.

andrewj41
andrewj41

@jonmarcbauer @solace @steveskavnak Agree. So happy I don't have any TV so the ads aren't all over my living room.

jonmbauer
jonmbauer

@andrewj41 @solace @steveskavnak It literally makes me sick. I've had to stop reading news article comments.

jonmbauer
jonmbauer

@solace @steveskavnak @andrewj41 i guess we'll have to wait and see. (which was really the case before, but polls are always interesting.)

andrewj41
andrewj41

@solace @steveskavnak @jonmarcbauer Agree. I have close friends who would be horribly affected by the marriage ban and its discrimination.

solace
solace

@steveskavnak @andrewj41 @jonmarcbauer ditto

steveskavnak
steveskavnak

@andrewj41 @solace @jonmarcbauer Agreed. Don't want either, but the marriage amendment is much more personal for me. Voter ID is just shady.

solace
solace

@andrewj41 @steveskavnak @jonmarcbauer that one just makes it a bit tougher to vote… the other one is discriminatory at its core.

solace
solace

@andrewj41 @steveskavnak @jonmarcbauer not myself. most Voter ID ones have been struck down or not upheld in a lot of other states.

solace
solace

@steveskavnak @andrewj41 @jonmarcbauer right… i won’t be surprised if either passes, but marriage amendment certainly has the momentum

andrewj41
andrewj41

@steveskavnak @solace @jonmarcbauer If I had to have one pass (which stinks), I'd rather see voter ID sadly.

jonmbauer
jonmbauer

@steveskavnak @solace @andrewj41 That's very true. When we're talking winning by 5%, no study will give a clear prediction.

steveskavnak
steveskavnak

@solace @andrewj41 @jonmarcbauer The margin of error on these polls is what's concerning. We have to assume neither side has an advantage.

jonmbauer
jonmbauer

@solace @andrewj41 Isn't there some sort of football winning/losing rule we can cite for a prediction?

solace
solace

@andrewj41 @jonmarcbauer yeah… PPP doesn’t have the best track record

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