InTrade, the investment speculation site where you can trade "stock" in events like political futures, published the following graph which tracks the market for the Republican nomination.

It's been conventional wisdom that John McCain's support for immigrants could cost him the Republican presidential nomination, because it put him on the "wrong side" of the party's base. Now comes the surprising news from Simon Rosenberg that it might in fact do the opposite:

According to the exit polls Mitt Romney and John McCain tied 33% to 33% among the 89% of the Florida Republicans who voted last night who were not Hispanic. Among Hispanics, who where 11% of the Florida GOP electorate last night, the vote was 54% McCain, 24% Rudy and 14% Romney. So it was the vote of Hispanic voters who put John McCain over the top in Florida, and gave him the most important win of his fight for the GOP nomination.

Thus, John McCain, the candidate who championed immigration reform, may have had the nomination delivered to him by those Hispanic voters he has been fighting for. And Romney, who has led the anti-immigrant crusade in the GOP field this year, saw this strategy explode on him - as it has virtually every other Republican who has invested in it - last night.

Meanwhile, Rolling Stone has an article reporting that top Republican strategists are terrified that the xenophobia gripping the party could backfire in a major way:

Exploiting the spasm of xenophobia that has taken hold of the GOP base helped Huckabee win Iowa — where entrance polls found illegal immigration the primary issue among the party's voters. But top Republican strategists are petrified that pandering to a narrow band of nativists will ruin the GOP's future with the nation's fastest-growing bloc of voters. This November, Hispanic turnout is expected to jump by fifty percent over 2000, with more than 9 million Latinos predicted to cast ballots. "I have never seen an issue where the short-term interests of Republican presidential candidates in the primaries were more starkly at odds with the long-term interests of the party itself," Michael Gerson, former White House senior policy adviser, wrote recently.

Grover Norquist, a top ally of Karl Rove, believes that the "vicious" rhetoric by GOP candidates could prompt Hispanics to flee "in droves" to the Democrats. "Talking about a strong border is one thing," Norquist says. "It's when you get into enforcing the law — which means deport — that you lose people's votes. Oddly enough, people resent the idea that you might throw their mother out of the country."

Almost anybody can be a gracious winner. The true mettle of a competitor shines through when you're less windshield, more bug. When you've lost a close and possibly pivotal battle, it's important not to come off -- for example -- as the petulant heir to an automobile fortune whose sense of entitlement comes glowering through his pie-hole.

For example.

Listening to Mitt Romney concede is like watching a sewer pipe overflow, and trying to defend his performance is like trying to say the sewer pipe was complimenting the rain on a hard-fought victory. Not every Republican candidate was like this, though. Some of them were downright likable, though, including:

The Huckster: A-.
Affable and off-the-cuff, Huckabee addressed supporters with just the right blend of aw-shucks and we'll-get-'em-next-time. Responding extemporaneously, Huck played off his supporters and managed to seem a likable, good-humored chap even to a guy who agrees with him minimally on the issues. (Though earlier in the contest on a few occasions, he's expressed more-or-less open disdain for Romney, albeit in funny ways). One of the TV talking heads floated the possibility of Huck staying in the race just to siphon evangelical votes from Mitt. Meeeeeeow.

CNN is calling the primary with 54 percent of the precincts reporting, with McCain their projected winner. Romney's strong performance indicates that he's still in the race ... but "America's Mayor" folded like a gutshot straight draw.

Politics fans hoping for a brokered convention are rooting for Romney to take the Florida primary. This would prevent the national media for tagging John McCain with the "front-runner" label, and keep the race wide open.

Plus, there's the fact that, should Romney end up the nominee, the McCain people have already prepared the perfect attack ad for Democrats to use. The video is after the jump.

The polls are just about to close in Florida, but this isn't close to being over.

The Miami Herald is reporting that voter turnout is looking extremely high, perhaps even record-breaking. One factor, drawing out even Democrats, is a statewide property tax referendum that's backed by popular, non-homosexual Gov. Charlie Crist, but looks in danger of failing. Meanwhile the St. Pete Times is reporting computer problems in Hernando County.

I'm not calling this primary, but I am readying the relevant muscles for a dynamic goodbye wave to Rudy Giuliani.

It's really too bad in a way. He gave us reason to confront some complex issues--most notably the intersection of race and politics.

Rudy's hometown paper ran a fascinating piece looking at the candidate's legacy of dealing with race issues as mayor of New York City. In a Republican contest virtually empty of the race discussion happening on the Democratic side, it's too bad this stuff wasn't much part of the conversation while he was still a contender.

With the all-important Florida primary and Super Tuesday looming, this seems like the perfect time for a round of Campaign Death Watch.

The game: Predict in what order the remaining six Republican candidates will drop out of the race. Here’s one scenario:

1. Mike Huckabee: After Super Tuesday on February 5, it becomes painfully obvious that Iowa was a fluke and his campaign doesn’t have a prayer. A gentlemanly sort, he withdraws within days.

2. Rudy Giuliani: He loses badly in make-or-break Florida, and can’t even win his home state of New York on February 5. Stunned, he hangs on desperately for a couple of weeks, then drops out.

3. Alan Keyes: I know what you’re thinking: Keyes is in this race? Apparently so. His vanity campaign lingers embarrassingly till the convention, but he’ll be the most irrelevant candidate in the room.

4. Ron Paul: Like Keyes, his zombie campaign (dead but ambulatory) stumbles along all the way to St. Paul, but he’ll be the second-most irrelevant candidate in the room.

5. John McCain: He’s flying high now, but once Huckabee is out of the race, conservative Christians—still a powerful bloc—hold their noses and vote for Romney. McCain concedes late in the convention.

6. Mitt Romney: He wins the nomination, prompting Republicans nationwide to ask: How the hell did that happen? His campaign finally dies November 4.

See, punditry is easy! Now it’s your turn.

With the pivotal Florida primary tomorrow night (along with the nearly-as-anticipated City Pages liveblog of same), candidates are ramping up their persuasive efforts. Mitt Romney is accusing John McCain of being a liar; McCain is rallying support from hawks, touting his national security credentials. Neither are engaging in the bold gambit employed by the former New York City mayor who has staked his candidacy on performing well here.

Rudy Giuliani is taking this opportunity to remind voters that no one likes him.