InTrade, the investment speculation site where you can trade "stock" in events like political futures, published the following graph which tracks the market for the Republican nomination.
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It's been conventional wisdom that John McCain's support for immigrants could cost him the Republican presidential nomination, because it put him on the "wrong side" of the party's base. Now comes the surprising news from Simon Rosenberg that it might in fact do the opposite:
According to the exit polls Mitt Romney and John McCain tied 33% to 33% among the 89% of the Florida Republicans who voted last night who were not Hispanic. Among Hispanics, who where 11% of the Florida GOP electorate last night, the vote was 54% McCain, 24% Rudy and 14% Romney. So it was the vote of Hispanic voters who put John McCain over the top in Florida, and gave him the most important win of his fight for the GOP nomination.Thus, John McCain, the candidate who championed immigration reform, may have had the nomination delivered to him by those Hispanic voters he has been fighting for. And Romney, who has led the anti-immigrant crusade in the GOP field this year, saw this strategy explode on him - as it has virtually every other Republican who has invested in it - last night.
Meanwhile, Rolling Stone has an article reporting that top Republican strategists are terrified that the xenophobia gripping the party could backfire in a major way:
Exploiting the spasm of xenophobia that has taken hold of the GOP base helped Huckabee win Iowa — where entrance polls found illegal immigration the primary issue among the party's voters. But top Republican strategists are petrified that pandering to a narrow band of nativists will ruin the GOP's future with the nation's fastest-growing bloc of voters. This November, Hispanic turnout is expected to jump by fifty percent over 2000, with more than 9 million Latinos predicted to cast ballots. "I have never seen an issue where the short-term interests of Republican presidential candidates in the primaries were more starkly at odds with the long-term interests of the party itself," Michael Gerson, former White House senior policy adviser, wrote recently.Grover Norquist, a top ally of Karl Rove, believes that the "vicious" rhetoric by GOP candidates could prompt Hispanics to flee "in droves" to the Democrats. "Talking about a strong border is one thing," Norquist says. "It's when you get into enforcing the law — which means deport — that you lose people's votes. Oddly enough, people resent the idea that you might throw their mother out of the country."
Almost anybody can be a gracious winner. The true mettle of a competitor shines through when you're less windshield, more bug. When you've lost a close and possibly pivotal battle, it's important not to come off -- for example -- as the petulant heir to an automobile fortune whose sense of entitlement comes glowering through his pie-hole.
For example.
Listening to Mitt Romney concede is like watching a sewer pipe overflow, and trying to defend his performance is like trying to say the sewer pipe was complimenting the rain on a hard-fought victory. Not every Republican candidate was like this, though. Some of them were downright likable, though, including:
The Huckster: A-.
Affable and off-the-cuff, Huckabee addressed supporters with just the right blend of aw-shucks and we'll-get-'em-next-time. Responding extemporaneously, Huck played off his supporters and managed to seem a likable, good-humored chap even to a guy who agrees with him minimally on the issues. (Though earlier in the contest on a few occasions, he's expressed more-or-less open disdain for Romney, albeit in funny ways). One of the TV talking heads floated the possibility of Huck staying in the race just to siphon evangelical votes from Mitt. Meeeeeeow.
CNN is calling the primary with 54 percent of the precincts reporting, with McCain their projected winner. Romney's strong performance indicates that he's still in the race ... but "America's Mayor" folded like a gutshot straight draw.
Politics fans hoping for a brokered convention are rooting for Romney to take the Florida primary. This would prevent the national media for tagging John McCain with the "front-runner" label, and keep the race wide open.
Plus, there's the fact that, should Romney end up the nominee, the McCain people have already prepared the perfect attack ad for Democrats to use. The video is after the jump.
The polls are just about to close in Florida, but this isn't close to being over.
The Miami Herald is reporting that voter turnout is looking extremely high, perhaps even record-breaking. One factor, drawing out even Democrats, is a statewide property tax referendum that's backed by popular, non-homosexual Gov. Charlie Crist, but looks in danger of failing. Meanwhile the St. Pete Times is reporting computer problems in Hernando County.
I'm not calling this primary, but I am readying the relevant muscles for a dynamic goodbye wave to Rudy Giuliani.
It's really too bad in a way. He gave us reason to confront some complex issues--most notably the intersection of race and politics.
Rudy's hometown paper ran a fascinating piece looking at the candidate's legacy of dealing with race issues as mayor of New York City. In a Republican contest virtually empty of the race discussion happening on the Democratic side, it's too bad this stuff wasn't much part of the conversation while he was still a contender.
With the all-important Florida primary and Super Tuesday looming, this seems like the perfect time for a round of Campaign Death Watch.
The game: Predict in what order the remaining six Republican candidates will drop out of the race. Here’s one scenario:
1. Mike Huckabee: After Super Tuesday on February 5, it becomes painfully obvious that Iowa was a fluke and his campaign doesn’t have a prayer. A gentlemanly sort, he withdraws within days.
2. Rudy Giuliani: He loses badly in make-or-break Florida, and can’t even win his home state of New York on February 5. Stunned, he hangs on desperately for a couple of weeks, then drops out.
3. Alan Keyes: I know what you’re thinking: Keyes is in this race? Apparently so. His vanity campaign lingers embarrassingly till the convention, but he’ll be the most irrelevant candidate in the room.
4. Ron Paul: Like Keyes, his zombie campaign (dead but ambulatory) stumbles along all the way to St. Paul, but he’ll be the second-most irrelevant candidate in the room.
5. John McCain: He’s flying high now, but once Huckabee is out of the race, conservative Christians—still a powerful bloc—hold their noses and vote for Romney. McCain concedes late in the convention.
6. Mitt Romney: He wins the nomination, prompting Republicans nationwide to ask: How the hell did that happen? His campaign finally dies November 4.
See, punditry is easy! Now it’s your turn.
With the pivotal Florida primary tomorrow night (along with the nearly-as-anticipated City Pages liveblog of same), candidates are ramping up their persuasive efforts. Mitt Romney is accusing John McCain of being a liar; McCain is rallying support from hawks, touting his national security credentials. Neither are engaging in the bold gambit employed by the former New York City mayor who has staked his candidacy on performing well here.
Rudy Giuliani is taking this opportunity to remind voters that no one likes him.
The gap between Ron Paul's political stances over the years and his supporter-chosen unofficial slogan, "Ron Paul Love Revolution," is hilarious in its incongruity. A paleoconservative coming with the hippie rhetoric? Fascinating.
I don't believe in the Devil, but if I did, I think he would look and act like Roger Stone. The longtime right-wing operative has a new initiative involving the nastiest epithet you can throw at a woman, and you can color all who've read of the man unsurprised.
I'm not sure what's the most jaw-dropping part about the latest Republican effort to call Hillary Clinton names. Let me summarize the story, then give you a list of the stupefying elements. Stone, a longtime right-wing activist with a penchant for dirty political tricks and dirtier tricks in the bedroom, has launched a new 527 organization designed to "educate the American public about what Hillary Clinton really is."
The name of the organization is Citizens United Not Timid. Get it? If you don't get it, look at their oh-so-clever graphic.
So, count with me the flabbergasting elements of this story, and pick your favorite:
Ever notice that the more people get to know Rudy Giuliani, the less they like him?
The Hyena is spending $350K a day in Florida ... and plunging in the polls. Check out Talking Points Memo's poll tracker for that state, where Giuliani is mostly running third or fourth.
You thought Chuck Norris was a big deal? Now Mike Huckabee has secured an endorsement from Jesus himself! Check it out:
Taking a cue from SNL, we're debuting our own Digital Short. You can also find a lower-res version on YouTube here. And here's the embed:
A NOTE TO VIEWERS: We are in no way intending to insult anyone's religious sensibilities, but rather to provide a parody of how politicians co-opt religion in service of earthly ends. When it comes to religion and politics, we follow the advice of a wise man: “Render unto Caesar the things which are Caesar’s, and unto God the things that are God’s.”
Take the jump to see some previous City Pages digital shorts ...
Uber-blog Politico has a story about which Hollywood stars are endorsing which Republican candidates. We all know that fitness guru Chuck Norris is on board with brother-in-Christ Mike Huckabee.
But what about Kelsey "Sniffles" Grammer?
Or Adam "The 67,543rd most talented man in show business" Sandler?
Sorry Huck, but these boys remember the pain of 9/11. They're with Rudy.
So are Jon "Superdad" Voight, Ron "Noun, Verb, September 11" Silver, Melissa Gilbert, and celebrated unfunny warmonger Dennis Miller.
In McCain's camp:
* Actor and serial drunk-driver Rip Torn
* Matriculating septuagenarian funnyman Dick Van Patten
* Producers Jerry Bruckheimer, Barry Diller, and Kirk Kerkorian
* Noted African-American media tycoon Richard Parsons
* Canadian evildoer Lorne Michaels
Fred Thompson has given up his amiable amble toward the White House. Statement:
"Today, I have withdrawn my candidacy for president of the United States. I hope that my country and my party have benefited from our having made this effort," the former Tennessee senator said in a brief statement.
Tim Pawlenty: Two terms as governor of a Midwestern swing state (Minnesota) provide a compelling argument for Pawlenty. Given their problems in the Northeast and Southwest in recent election cycles, Republicans must find a way with him to stay competitive in Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan and Ohio in November.
After seeing the fruition of our Shepard Fairey-inspired "Mike Huckabee has a posse" sticker, I put ace CP graphic designer Mike Kooiman to work on the next iteration: Obey Obama. As you can see, he once again knocked it out of the park:
As with our Huckabee sticker, feel free to download it, send it to friends, put it on your web page, etc. Just please provide a link back to this post. I'd love to see one of these "in the wild" on the back of somebody's car!
Time floats the possibility of a fractured GOP vote even after Feb. 5's "Super Duper Tuesday" primaries. This is a tantalizing possibility, if for no other reasons than drawing out the suspense and creating the most fascinating national convention atmosphere possible.
You'd think that President Bush's spiritual adviser, the man who gave the benediction at both of his inaugurations, would be throwing his weight into the Republican race for president, if he threw his weight at all.
Not so. AP is reporting that Rev. Kirbyjon Caldwell, senior pastor of Houston's Windsor Village United Methodist Church, has endorsed Barack Obama for president, and he called Bush to tell him the news.
Word on the blogosphere has it that Ron Paul's merry pranksters are planning to drop a "money bomb" tomorrow (Monday) to coincide with Martin Luther King Jr. Day. (Money bombs are days in which Paul supporters dump huge sums of cash into Paul's campaign coffers. Previous bombs were dropped on Guy Fawkes Day [Nov. 5] and the anniversary of the Boston Tea Party [Dec. 16], the latter being the largest single-day fundraising effort in U.S. political history).
This latest money dump comes at the heels of a January 8 New Republic article that uncovered racist and homophobic comments written in Paul's newsletter through the 70's, 80's, and 90's-- comments the Texas congressman claims were penned without his knowlege. (His full response can be found here.)
Earlier this month, Paul told Reason Magazine: "Martin Luther King is one of my heroes because he believed in nonviolence and that's a libertarian principle... So I believe in civil disobedience if you understand the consequences. Martin Luther King was a great person because he did that and he changed America for the better because of that."
This post on DailyKos nails something I've been thinking when I see Giuliani trailing Paul in each successive primary:
In case you're wondering how fringe candidate Ron Paul has fared against "front-runner" Rudy Giuliani, here are the approximate popular vote totals for both candidates so far this primary season (including 93% reporting from South Carolina):Paul: 105,848 votes
Giuliani: 60,213 votes
The mainstream media is going to have to re-evaluate how it bestows "frontrunner" and "fringe" status on candidates from here on out.
In case you haven't heard: it's going to be ridiculously cold the next few days. But don't fret. Nothing warms the body and spirit quite like listening to Mike Huckabee talk to Joe Scarborough about frying squirrels in a popcorn popper. Enjoy.
Chess superhero, noted anti-Semite, and fugitive from the law Bobby Fischer was quoted, hours before his death, endorsing Republican presidential candidate Ron Paul. "He is the only one who will take care of the Jews," Fischer reportedly mumbled to himself shortly before slipping into unconsciousness and meeting his maker.
Disclaimer: This isn't verifiably true, except for the Bobby Fischer dying part.
By now, most of us have watched the heated exchange between Mitt Romney and that seated, laptop-wielding fellow named Glen Johnson, whose job it is to follow the good candidate around and write about it for the AP.
Most pundits have either criticized Johnson for injecting his opinion/attacking the candidate at an inappropriate moment or, conversely, commended him for holding Romney's feet to the fire. I don't buy either analysis. Check out the nut of the exchange:
Romney: I don't have lobbyists running my campaign. I don't have lobbyists that are tied to my-
Johnson: That is not true Governor, that is not true.
Mitt Romney doesn't have a lobbyist running his campaign. His campaign manager, Beth Myers, may be many things, but she isn't a lobbyist.
But Romney obviously has at least one prominent lobbyist, Ron Kaufman, in the capacity of an "unpaid adviser," giving him lots of advice.
Johnson, by interrupting Romney a moment too early, didn't give the good candidate time to finish telling his lie.
The Wall Street Journal's Laura Meckler has an excellent story today detailing the growing pains of the post-Iowa Huckabee campaign. The piece deftly highlights the charms of his populist campaign, while also providing strong evidence for why he is highly unlikely to ultimately be the GOP nominee. Huckabee's folksy, snuff-using campaign manager, Chip Saltsman, delivers most of the yucks. Here's an anecdote about the campaign's Michigan misadventures:
It was barely 24 hours after the New Hampshire polls closed, but Michigan was less than a week away. The campaign was focused on South Carolina and had almost no infrastructure in Michigan. Polls showed Mr. Huckabee had a shot there, so Mr. Saltsman decided to make an effort.
He sent Shane Henry, a 28-year-old Arkansas lawyer who had helped get Mr. Huckabee on state ballots. Mr. Henry, whose father-in-law is close to Mr. Huckabee, sold some property in September, making enough to forgo a paycheck for a while. He signed on as a volunteer, and calls the timing of his windfall "a God thing."He was hardly the ideal organizer. Asked what Mr. Henry knew about Michigan, Mr. Saltsman says he knew where it was. Mr. Henry, asked about his experience in organizing events, says, "I was student-body president at my university."
But read the whole damn thing.
What is with conservatives and bestiality? Why do they like to talk about it so much? Specifically, why do prominent right-wing politicians keep trying to put gay people in the same category as Manimal lovers?
Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum was the prominent example of such, though not nearly the first. The latest: Presidential candidate Mike Huckabee.
Buck Humphrey was named Minnesota State Director for the Clinton campaign today. He filled an identical role for Al Gore's run in 2000 and served as Midwest finance director for John Kerry's 2004 effort. The grandson of political icon Hubert H. Humphrey III, Buck ran unsuccessfuly for secretary of state in 2002.
The world, as Annie Savoy noted in Bull Durham, is made for those not cursed with self-awareness. So it is with the young men who deliver this clever, if oddly-chosen, parody of the Beatles' "Help!". It's been altered to endorse Mike Huckabee.
I believe that's the phrase Pat Buchanan uttered earlier tonight on MSNBC. He was attempting to comment on the popular rallying cry among Hispanic workers that's been heard at Obama events recently. I ran "Si se purda" through babel fish. Translation: "Lord I despise Mexicans--except for the guys who fixed my roof."
With 32 percent of the precincts reporting, Rudy is getting three percent of the vote, with 8,648 total ballots cast for him.
This means he is outpacing:
* "Uncommitted" (6,082 votes, 2 percent)
* Duncan Hunter (1,013 votes, 0 percent)
* Dennis Kucinich (7,168 votes, 4 percent)
* My grandmother (0 votes, 0 percent)
Of those, "uncommitted" is not actually a person, Dennis Kucinich is Democrat running in a primary that doesn't count, and my grandmother not only never lived in Michigan, she is, in fact, dead. (You're still first in my heart, grandma!) Rudy's gonna have to take solace in the fact that he's Big Republican On Campus compared to Duncan Hunter.
Full disclosure -- he's also beating Chris Dodd and Mike Gravel, both Democrats. Courage, Rudy! Those campaign higher-ups are really earning their paychecks now.
Is it just me, or is this CNN headline unintentionally funny:
Clinton battles 'uncommitted' in Michigan
The story is about how supporters of Barack Obama and John Edwards are voting "uncommitted" after the candidates removed their names from the ballot in protest of Michigan jumping the line and moving its primary to January 15.
But it reminded me of this other time that Hillary battled "uncommitted."
CNN is calling Michigan for Mitt Romney, setting up a three-way race with John McCain and Mike Huckabee:
With 10 percent of precincts reporting, Romney had 37 percent of the vote compared to Arizona Sen. John McCain's 31 percent. Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee had 16 percent of the vote, followed by Texas Rep. Ron Paul with 7 percent. Former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson had 4 percent, and former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani trailed with 3 percent.
Both Thompson and Giuliani badly trailing Ron Paul? Ouch.
Two new exit polls: From Drudge (115% EXCLUSIVE!!! MUST CREDIT!!!):
"EXIT POLLS SHOW: Romney 34, McCain 29, Huckabee 16... Developing..."
From NRO: Romney 35, McCain 29, Huckabee 15, Ron Paul 10, Giuliani 4.
Polls close at 7 p.m. CST. That leaves less than three hours for predictions. Meaning this thread should have gone up much earlier.
But here's mine:
Romney, 30
McCain, 27
Huckabee, 19
Put your picks in the comments. Closest contestant will receive a copy of You Know You Love It: Lessons in Sexual Mischief by dominatrix Ilona Paris, which I inexplicably received in the mail today. I hear it's among Mitt's favorites.
That's the headline from a new Pi Press story. This reminds me of the game where you read a fortune from a fortune cookie, and add "in bed" to the end of it.
The Democratic candidates are boycotting the Michigan primary because of the Mitten's nefarious attempt to jump the line. But that doesn't mean liberal voters should stay home. A YouTube ad is urging them to vote for Mitt Romney, master of self-financed campaign sleeze! Check out the ad after the jump.
I love babies. There, I said it.
But I don't give one shit-soaked diaper whether or not a presidential candidate looks comfortable - caring even - with a limp and brand new miracle-of-life in her or his arms.
Apparently, I am alone. There are a host of photo galleries posted to the webernet that attempt (sometimes, I admit, with humorous results) to gauge the worth of a candidate by their ability to appear gracious and and at ease whenever somebody shoves some crying kid into their arms in the midst of the most exhausting, excruciating time of their political lives.
All the same, there has to be a winner.
Looks like a three-horse race for the state Sufjan Stevens says yes to. Three new polls show Mitt Romney with a strong lead over John McCain and Mike Huckabee further behind.
Still undecided on which presidential candidate is right for you? Though it may be months away, it’s never too early to start your research. That’s why I turn to CosmoGirl!, the leading source in political coverage.
Yes, you read the headline right -- Rudy Giuliani's top campaign people are foregoing paychecks for the month of January.
But the campaign isn't having money troubles. Of course not.
I've said it before, and I'll say it again: hyena.
The blogosphere is abuzz with conspiratorial whispers alleging inconsistencies in the New Hampshire Democratic primary.
According to a report by Presscue, Hillary Clinton trounced Barack Obama in precincts featuring Diebold voting machines, while Obama bested Hillary in precincts relying on hand-counts. Past revelations of Diebold's vulnerability to tampering, coupled with Hillary's unlikely come-from-behind victory have led some to a grim conclusion: the New Hampshire primary was rigged.
Pulp conspiracy theory? Or cause for concern? Discuss below.
This Dave Barry column about the absurd presidential fawning over the residents of Iowa and New Hampshire is quite amusing:
Now it's time for the politicians and the press to drop New Hampshire like an ant-covered corn dog and sprint for the airport, leaving the residents of The Granite State to spend the rest of the winter plucking 239 billion candidate signs out of their snowbanks, all the while wondering if there ever really was a candidate named "Mike Gravel," or if that was just teenagers playing a sign-planting prank.
(Cribbed from Campaign Standard)
[Insert even cheesier "Run-R.N.C." joke here]
Nobody really gives a shit about the Wyoming caucuses. Despite being nestled between the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary, the nation's least populous state attracts virtually no media attention-- only 12 delegates are at stake and the sparse population distribution makes robust campaigning not even worth the effort.
But just in case you were wondering, Mitt Romney finished first in the Cowboy State on Saturday, earning eight delegates. He was followed by Fred Thompson (3 delegates) and Duncan Hunter (1)(?!).
On Tuesday Republican voters will head to the polls in Michigan. The most recent polling data, from the Detroit News, shows Romney with a statistically insignificant lead over Huckabee. But that survey was taken in mid-December and is undoubtedly stale. Prior polls, by MRG and Rasmussen, found McCain and Huckabee to be the narrow front-runners respectively. In other words, it's impossible to say with any credibility who's the favorite. McCain and Romney will both be making a hard push for the state.
It's been an emotional week for Hillary Clinton. She was trounced in Iowa, there were reports she was going to make a major shakeup to her campaign staff, suggestions she might quit the race early if she didn't win New Hampshire, and a moment when she appeared to be fighting back tears. So it was mesmerizing to watch her victory speech tonight, in which she, for once, appeared to speak with candor and genuine emotion instead of the classic Clinton triangulation.
CNN's projecting that Hillary Clinton has narrowly edged Barack Obama, giving her the win in New Hampshire and confounding earlier poll results. MSNBC is on board as well.
Obama supporters at O'Gara's look glum as the results start to come in.
I gave up on staying at the Obama event all night, but the mood was glum when I left, and I imagine shock is setting in now.
That's what inflated expectations can do -- by all metrics a powerful performance suddenly feels like a devastating loss to Obama supporters, even though he's performing well. This does mean it looks more and more like a two-horse race.
After finishing third, John Edwards gave virtually the same concession speech as in Iowa. Again, he talks about Nataline Sarkisyan, the 17-year-old girl who died while awaiting a liver transplant that her insurance company refused to cover (am I the only one who finds it weird that Edwards never mentions the name of the insurance company? It was CIGNA and you can read more about the case here.) Again, he talks about James Lowe, the man who couldn't afford to get his cleft palate fixed for years (YouTube clip of Edwards with Lowe embedded below). Are these the only two people in America that have ever had a bad run-in with an insurance company? Why not just screen "Sicko" and call it a night?
As Paul Demko points out in the previous post, John McCain just gave one of the worst victory speeches I've ever heard. He walked in to the Rocky theme and the excitable crowd interrupted him several times with chants of "Mac is back!" (which at first sounded like "Pack his bags!"). He started off with a joke alluding to Bill Clinton's "comeback kid" victory, saying that though McCain is too old to be called a kid, "tonight, we sure showed 'em what a comeback looks like!" But after that, McCain seemed to fall apart, reading from an obviously written speech and several times stammering through language that clearly wasn't his own.
That was one long, marginally-coherent victory speech from John McCain. He seemed rather old and befuddled. For a guy whose reputation is built on speaking his mind, McCain appeared incapable of producing a single unscripted thought.
With 30 percent of precincts reporting, trailing John McCain (38%) and Mitt Romney (29%), Mike Huckabee (12%) conceded New Hampshire at a little past 8 p.m. tonight. But it sounded more like a victory speech.
Huckabee said he was thankful that an "unknown Southern boy" could do so well up north and said that when he comes back to New Hampshire as the Republican nominee, "I'll even learn how to say 'chow-da.'"
Strangely absent from the proceedings was Chuck Norris, who is apparently a fairweather friend.
I'm always baffled at how they're able to predict these things with so few precincts reporting, but CNN is calling it for McCain:
With 16 percent of Republican precincts reporting, McCain had 37 percent of the vote. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney was second with 28 percent, and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, the winner of last week's Iowa GOP caucuses followed with 12 percent.
Keep in mind that McCain won New Hampshire in 2000, but ultimately lost the nomination thanks to some Bush strategery, as chronicled by Matt Snyders here.
But it may set up McCain as the anti-Huckabee and turn it into a two-man race.
We're coming to you live from the Obama party at O'Gara's, where they only let us in because they thought it was spelled “O'Bama” and that he comes from County Cork.
Despite their best efforts to dismantle my good journalistic times – an earlier phone call to inquire about wireless Internet failed to mention that their wireless had been down for a week – I remain stout and resolute.
Back in 2000 (ah, those halcyon, pre-9/11 days!), you might recall a straight-shootin’, seemingly invincible John McCain carried New Hampshire only to lose momentum—and ultimately the nomination—to our current president, thanks to a doughy strategist named Karl Rove. (Rove, of course, mounted an ingenious smear campaign in South Carolina that insinuated McCain had not only fathered an illegitimate black child, but was, in fact, pro-breast cancer.)
So: just how significant is the New Hampshire primary in the nomination process? Answer: fairly.
Ron Paul, the straight-shooting OB-GYN/republican representative of Texas' 22nd district might be the only candidate for either major party who can openly disparage a group of people, and bank on their support.
In case you missed it last month, TV Guide interviewed several top presidential candidates on their TV-watching habits. We have taken their answers and turned them into a quiz just for you! Here goes:
Seeing Chuck Norris in Mike Huckabee's posse during his Iowa victory speech reminded me of Shepard Fairey's ubiquitous Obey Giant stickers. So I recruited City Pages Associate Art Director Mike Kooiman to design a spoof. I think you'll agree that he nailed it:
As with our image of Huckabee morphing into Nixon, feel free to download it, send it to friends, put it on your web page, etc. Just please provide a link back to this post. Thanks!
PS It would really make my day if I saw one of these out on the streets of St. Paul during the RNC convention. Anybody want to print up some stickers?
While my friend and New Hampshire denizen Jonah Keri was researching his new college basketball column for Deadspin, he and his wife happened upon an interesting photo opportunity. Turns out, there's an election going on, and it's got nothing to do with Duke or North Carolina.
The column shows off the following awesome photo by his brilliant bride: Binx the Goat endorses Obama! I already trust Binx more than the equally cute Punxsutawney Phil.
Hunter Thompson famously compared Nixon to a badger. If today's top Republican candidates were to be endorsed by a group of animals, here's how I think it would break down (in alphabetical order).
As we report in this week’s feature, likely New Hampshire primary runner-up Mitt Romney has cuddly ties to mercenary army Blackwater Worldwide (formerly Blackwater USA).
The portentously (and aptly) named Cofer Black—vice chair of the controversial private military force—has served as chair of Romney’s counter-terrorism advisory group since September.
The inclusion of Black in the Romney campaign has received scant attention from the national press, even amidst FBI-led investigations into Blackwater regarding the massacre of 14 Iraqi civilians.
While organizations such as Politico and MWC have covered Black’s role in the Romney campaign, the mainstream media has remained eerily silent. (If you google “Mitt Romney Blackwater,” the first two hits that appear are Media Matters essays decrying the msm for keeping mum on the issue.)
One of my favorite passages from Matt Snyders's cover story this week was his visceral description of the resemblance between Mike Huckabee and Richard Nixon:
If you took Richard Nixon circa 1973, sheared his jowls with a meat cleaver, and filed 1.3 centimeters off the tip of his nose with a synthetic grindstone, you'd be left staring at a creature physically identical to Huckabee.
Thanks to the miracle of modern technology, City Pages Associate Art Director Mike Kooiman has brought the concept to life with this gif:
Feel free to download it, send it to friends, put it on your web page, etc. Just please provide a link back to this post. Thanks!
In this week's cover story, Matt Snyders describes the disappointment of a questioner at a Fred Thompson rally upon learning that Fred is too lazy to deport Hispanic babies. To wit:
"I appreciate your tough stance against illegal immigrants. But what about the babies? Those that are born here? Are there policies you could make to deport them?"Thompson shuffled his feet and deftly answered, "Well, I don't believe the president can change that with the stroke of a pen. I believe the courts have interpreted that as falling under the 14th amendment."
The woman wilted ever so slight in her folding chair, visible disappointed that her candidate wasn't willing to deport American babies for the crime of being born Hispanic.
Cheer up, xenophobes! Mike Huckabee has your back after the jump!
Looking for a site to liveblog from tonight, I wanted to find a place where local politicos gathered. Ideally, I'd be at a Republican affair, since it's their convention we're covering and all. So I punched up the Minnesota GOP site and looked on their calendar for potential sites:
Don't strain yourselves, folks! Election season will be over soon. And yes, the calendar is real.
My personal verdict: I'll be setting up shop at the Obama party at O'Gara's, where the liquor streams in with the wireless Internet. Come say hi if you see me.
On a day when voters in New Hampshire are going to the polls to decide the fate of our nation, the Associated Press issues a memo to editorial staff on the most pressing issue of the day: Britney Spears.
Now and for the foreseeable future, virtually everything involving Britney is a big deal. That doesn't mean every rumor makes it on the wire. But it does mean that we want to pay attention to what others are reporting and seek to confirm those stories that WE feel warrant the wire. And when we determine that we'll write something, we must expedite it.
Hat tip: Romenesko
As pointed out on MNSpeak, there are a couple of presidential aspirants with Minnesota connections on the New Hampshire primary ballot. Ole Savior, a Minneapolis resident and perennial candidate for pretty much any office available, is representing for the Democrats. Meanwhile Granite State Republicans have the option of voting for fugitive dentist and former St. Paul-resident Jack Shepard. Of course it's unlikely the latter stands a chance against the likes of Vermin Supreme.
Just how rich is Mitt Romney? Allowing the passing physical resemblance to Gordon Gecko, "very rich indeed," we'd assume. Here's a helpful mathematical equation by which I tend to assess these things:
Rich < Super Rich < Scrooge McDuck < Holy Fucking Shit Rich < Bill Gates Rich
Mitt Romney is Holy Fucking Shit Rich, as this visual representation of the candidates makes painfully clear. None of these people are hurting, and they'd all be able to play Kristal Pong with me at the City Pages Mansion Off Washington Ave. But Romney's wealth leaves me wondering whether the Machiavellian Mormon might be better off just straight up attempting buy votes, and then bribing the underpaid public servants charged with arresting him for same.
The image makes my stomach churn a little bit, but it gets funnier when I imagine Romney rebuffing Mike Huckabee by saying this in Chappelle's Show fashion.
Also, Dennis Kucinich's image in that graphic is actual size.
Drudge is reporting a huge Democratic turnout in New Hampshire:
EPIC TURNOUT FOR DEMS -- We Are Out of Ballots!Secretary of State is making runs to Seacoast – Hampton, Portsmouth – and Southern Hillsborough – Pelham, Nashua – to bring extra democratic ballots. Many towns are reporting shortages... Developing..
(and you know it's true because he has a flashing siren on it).
This DailyKos diarist is reporting the same phenomenon.
While this bodes ill for the Republican Party as a whole, it could be particularly bad for John McCain. He's counting on independents to help put him over the top, and it looks like they're breaking for the Dems, most likely swept up in Obamamania.
Glenn Greenwald's new post at Salon makes the case that John Edwards' growing support is absent from the dominant media narrative. It's hard to argue with this -- I just spent a week in North Carolina, which is Edwards country, and heard much the same sentiment. Check out the new Rasmussen poll numbers, which make this look like a three-way race after all.
The more I know of Edwards, the more I like him, although I think he may be swamped by the rising Obama tide.
Ron Paul was excluded from the Fox News debates, and his supporters were ... nonplussed. Chanting "Fox News Sucks," their protests turned into a chase when Fox News Helmet Hair Issues Correspondent Sean Hannity was spotted walking to his car.
New Hampshire's Concord Monitor has issued one of my favorite political statements of all time. Before their authentic endorsement of a Republican candidate, they came out with an anti-endorsement: Whatever you do, the Monitor implored, do not elect Mitt Romney.
The logic is centered around Romney's, ahem, "pragmatism," which has allowed him to fundamentally change core positions on choice, stem cell research, taxation and more.
Rumors that Romney read the Monitor piece, agreed with it, and then changed his mind five minutes later are unsubstantiated.
The last Zogby poll numbers are out in advance of tonight's New Hampshire primary, and Barack Obama leads Hillary Clinton by 13 points (John Edwards is even further behind). Some of Hillary's advisors are even starting to wonder about whether it would be worth it to fight on the face of such a defeat. This is interesting to ponder given Eric Black's minimization of the New Hampshire hype.
Zogby shows a less dominating, but still significant advantage for John McCain on the Republican side, with Mitt Romney within striking distance and Mike Huckabee a distant third. This is how the playing field looks for tonight.
I used these numbers because I'm one of those polled by Zogby (not for New Hampshire, obviously, but for national issues). If you've got other numbers, let's see 'em.
Also, it looks like turnout is expected to be huge. Start your countdown and fire up your ulcer medication, the next dozen or so hours could get interesting.
