But isn't there a flaw in Rosenberg's analysis? Latino Republican voters in Florida are undoubtedly overwhelmingly Cuban. Their perspective on immigration is going to be much different from Mexican Americans. This dynamic is unlikely to repeat itself elsewhere in the country, with maybe the exception of new jersey with its large cuban community.

Paul,

I definitely agree with you that Cuban immigrants in Florida are a very different population than Mexican immigrants elsewhere in the country. But I don't see why the analysis doesn't hold--if anything, I think McCain's pro-immigration stance will be even more popular with Mexican immigrants, for exactly the reason Norquist identifies: "Oddly enough, people resent the idea that you might throw their mother out of the country."

Republicans never seem to understand that this was the issue that could blow up on them in a huge way. The Rovian inspired Republican majority requires 30 to 40% Latino voter support. The tone of the debate has angered Latinos of all political persuasions as they see it increasingly as racist and directed at them even if they have been living here for generations.

And this goes for Cubans as well. Cubans see the attack on non-Cuban Latinos (who are now about 50% of the Latino vote in once Cuban predominant Florida) as an attack on them as well.

So while Cubans and Puerto Ricans have very different perspectives on their own immigration realities, they have a sense of solidarity with people they share much with culturally who appear to be threatened simply because of this same culture and ethnic heritage.

Not to mention that ICE has been very bad about being able to distinguish between US citizen Latinos and undocumented immigrants. Thus they have gone around the country trampling Latinos rights. This has led to a very unified perspective among Latinos of very different backgrounds.

At the same time, to expand on Demko's point: generally speaking, Cuban-Americans--particularly anti-Castro refugees--traditionally favor Republicans, while Mexican-Americans tend to lean Democratic. For this reason, McCain's immigration stance might not woo Hispanics elsewhere like it did in Florida. (Most of them will be deciding which Democratic candidate to support.)

Good points folks. My reasoning was a bit flawed. But Snyders makes the point that i was attempting to make. Going forward i don't see it being a major plus for Mccain. Most of the folks who would be impressed by his immigrant-friendly stance will be voting for democrats.

You have it backwards. Cubans in Florida tend to support to the GOP because of its traditionally hard line stance against Castro. Latinos typically are moderate voters, which previously garnered votes for the GOP (Bush). The problem is that the GOP has done more than advocate better control of the border. They have aligned themselves with hate groups such as FAIR and the Minutemen. Latinos, and immigrants as a whole, are rebelling against the notion that they are criminals by association. National polling has shown consistently for more than two years that Americans want the problem fixed universally, not just with more cops breaking up families. McCain is popular with Latinos because he was the sole voice of reason last summer in the Senate from his party. The local Latino media has actually endorsed him. However, McCain will likely suffer by association, especially in Minnesota. Senator Coleman has hurt the GOP within his party by advocating that police need to turn everyone over to immigration, regardless of whether they are the offender or victim. The governor, with his recent offensive, emboldened the community to unite against him and anyone associated with him. Within the immigrant community in Minnesota, the GOP is now a curse word.

Cubans in Florida cannot sway the country. Florida offers poor insight into the GOP's plight. If Rommney wins, the GOP looses.