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The Armchair Pundit: Campaign Death Watch

Filed under: National Republicans

With the all-important Florida primary and Super Tuesday looming, this seems like the perfect time for a round of Campaign Death Watch.

The game: Predict in what order the remaining six Republican candidates will drop out of the race. Here’s one scenario:

1. Mike Huckabee: After Super Tuesday on February 5, it becomes painfully obvious that Iowa was a fluke and his campaign doesn’t have a prayer. A gentlemanly sort, he withdraws within days.

2. Rudy Giuliani: He loses badly in make-or-break Florida, and can’t even win his home state of New York on February 5. Stunned, he hangs on desperately for a couple of weeks, then drops out.

3. Alan Keyes: I know what you’re thinking: Keyes is in this race? Apparently so. His vanity campaign lingers embarrassingly till the convention, but he’ll be the most irrelevant candidate in the room.

4. Ron Paul: Like Keyes, his zombie campaign (dead but ambulatory) stumbles along all the way to St. Paul, but he’ll be the second-most irrelevant candidate in the room.

5. John McCain: He’s flying high now, but once Huckabee is out of the race, conservative Christians—still a powerful bloc—hold their noses and vote for Romney. McCain concedes late in the convention.

6. Mitt Romney: He wins the nomination, prompting Republicans nationwide to ask: How the hell did that happen? His campaign finally dies November 4.

See, punditry is easy! Now it’s your turn.

Posted by Matt Smith at January 28, 2008 7:10 PM

« Rudy: Not endorsed by anyone! | Main | Will Rudy's legacy on race issues be buried with his candidacy ? »

Comments

"Ron Paul: Like Keyes, his zombie campaign (dead but ambulatory)"

I commend you for acknowledging the candidacies of Keyes and Paul. I know Paul's campaign seems outwardly dead as the mass media would like us to think (more correctly, to not think about Ron Paul at all).

In reality, Dr Paul's campaign is growing in dollars and grassroots support. He took second in Nevada and Louisiana. He is earning key endorsements. He has the money to campaign aggressively beyond Super Tuesday.

People who used to turn away from politics are flocking to Ron Paul to learn the solutions to problems that have plagued us for decades (militarism, inflation, debt, taxes, personal freedom). For example, Ron Paul presents a comprehensive and convincing plan to root out government waste, slash taxes and restore the dollar in order to revitalize our economy.

Ron Paul is not a politician, he is a statesman and I am excited about this great opportunity to put a true independent into the White House. Learn more at http://www.ronpaul2008.com

Posted by: Dave Dines at January 28, 2008 8:47 PM

Ron Paul ,,,,the Best is Yet to come!!!

Posted by: Flo at January 28, 2008 8:48 PM

You keep telling yourself that Ron Paul is irrelevant. Once Rudy is gone then Huckabee the media might start having Ron Paul on the news. Once that happens people find out about him and we have a new front runner. This is a marathon not a sprint. Ron Paul is the only one running his campaign this way.

Posted by: Jon R at January 28, 2008 9:02 PM

7. Ron Paul chooses to run as an Independent; as a result, true Republicans choose to vote for Ron Paul instead of Romney; because Paul attracts bi-partisan support, he also takes votes from disenfranchised Democrats, and narrowly defeats Obama and Romney in November.

Posted by: Anonymous at January 28, 2008 9:02 PM

*cough* Ron Paul's campaign lagging? Nope, sorry. Or maybe you can explain why Ron Paul has meetup groups in 32 countries.

http://www.ronpaul2008.com/

http://ronpaul.meetup.com/cities/

Posted by: False at January 28, 2008 9:15 PM

So if Huck, Rudy and McCain run out of support and money, and Romney decides his losses are to great financially to continue buying his way to the white house...That leaves Paul and Keyes...Cool.

Posted by: James at January 28, 2008 9:21 PM

Your take on the Ron Paul campaign is a joke. It is the only living and growing of all the campaigns. How can it be classified as dead? You are a jackass

Posted by: Jordan at January 28, 2008 9:28 PM

It's good to know the Google alert for "Ron Paul" is still working. We've lit the Moonbat signal again.

Oh, and my prediction:

Mormons nationwide see this video and demand Romney stand down in favor of another LDS candidate. This leads to the independent candidacy of your next U.S. President: Donny Osmond.

Posted by: Jeff Shaw at January 28, 2008 9:45 PM

I haven't seen anything even remotely moonbat-ish posted yet. well, other than an odd donny osmond retort.

Posted by: Robert at January 28, 2008 9:51 PM

Paul will indeed be around until the convention, but his "under the radar" strategy (which the MSM has forced him to use) will alow him to do well in the super Tuesday states, but even better in the post-super tuesday states. He has the money, the grass roots, and the momentum to pull off the upset. I really dont see any grassroots for McCain, Huckabee, Romney (other than Mormons, but the majority of mormons dont even like the guy) or Giuliani (laugh, I still question whether he ever even had any support, I've been talking to a lot of people for a long time, and have yet to meet a Giuliani supporter.

Posted by: Michael Cathcart at January 28, 2008 10:02 PM

Maybe you didn't notice but Dr. Paul won first place in the Louisiana Caucus. The GOP down there is trying their best to cheat Dr. Paul out of his win, but this time the cheating just wasn't clever enough and the trail of misdeeds is easy to follow. You have written the obituary far to quickly for Dr. Paul's campaign. It is becoming more invigorated then ever. Did you happen to notice the fool McCane made of himself by not even knowing what the President's Working Group on Financial Markets is when asked the question by Dr. Paul in the last Debate? Romney was wired with someone feeding him answers. How could anyone be proud of supporting those two dim wits? Ron Paul is not just going to win an election, he will lead a Revolution!

Posted by: Elaine McKillop at January 28, 2008 10:04 PM

Ron Paul gets more financial support from our military personel than ANY other candidate. Ron Paul is not just a candidate, this is a REVOLUTION!!!!! It is imperative that Ron Paul gets elected so that he disbands the Federal Reserve, IRS, Dept of Education, gets us out of Iraq and ends birthright citizenship of illegals. If we don't stop the Federal Reserve from printing money out of thin air then our children will continue to be enslaved with sensless wars and unConstitutional income taxes. We will continue to fight shoulder to shoulder with Ron Paul until the last vote, and beyond.

Posted by: Reeves Mollman at January 28, 2008 10:36 PM

You may be insulting but you're not very bright. Dismissing Ron P. is one thing (and quite common) but comparing him to Alan K. is just silly. In a brokered convention Paul's delegates might be quite attractive to a candidate if there is no clear majority.

Posted by: Dan Hansen at January 28, 2008 10:36 PM

I still think there's a chance for Huckabee to be a player. He barely lost South Carolina and the two most recent national polls show him second to McCain: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/republican_presidential_nomination-192.html

Alabama, Georgia, Kansas, Tennessee and Oklahoma all seem like states where he could potentially run strong on Feb 5. If neither McCain or Romney can vault to a formidable lead I see no reason for him to drop.

Posted by: Demko at January 28, 2008 11:31 PM

Giuliani drops out now. Huckabee drops out after Super Tuesday, then Romney right after him. McCain is the Republican nominee by February 8th at the latest.

Actually, McCain is the nominee now... it's just not official yet.

Posted by: Austin Cassidy at January 29, 2008 9:55 PM

Oh pleeeeze Mr. Osama bin Huckabee...don't drop out. If you can just win the Republican nomination then I am confident that America WILL put a Democrat in the White house!

David

Posted by: David L. Wylie at January 30, 2008 1:49 PM

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