Always bet on black: Oddsmakers pick Obama 3 to 1

Categories: Primary
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Watching coverage of the presidential race since "Terminal Tuesday," I've been getting agitated at how the mainstream media blurs the facts in an attempt to turn this into a compelling horserace. The fact is, this contest, like so much of life, comes down to math, and it doesn't favor Hillary. To catch up, she'd need to win the 12 remaining contests by an average of 23 percentage points each--roughly double the margin she achieved on her most favorable terrain in Ohio, according to this Newsweek analysis.


While journalists are dealing from the bottom of the deck to keep viewers tuned in, the oddsmakers of the Iowa Electronic Market are heavily favoring Obama. According to this article:

Intrade traders gave Obama a 75 percent chance of winning the Democratic nomination for U.S. president, versus 23.5 percent for Clinton. Traders on the Iowa Electronic Markets, a nonprofit exchange run by the University of Iowa for research purposes, gave Obama a 74 percent chance of winning, versus 24 percent for Clinton.


This is good news for Obama fans, because the IEM has been very accurate at picking the eventual winners of political contests--much moreso than polling. According to this Wikipedia article:

This may be because it uses a free market model to predict an outcome, instead of the aggregation of many individuals' opinions. The speculator is more interested in a correct outcome than in his or her desired outcome.


Best advice for those gambling on the election? Listen to Wesley Snipes:


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