Always bet on black: Oddsmakers pick Obama 3 to 1
Intrade traders gave Obama a 75 percent chance of winning the Democratic nomination for U.S. president, versus 23.5 percent for Clinton. Traders on the Iowa Electronic Markets, a nonprofit exchange run by the University of Iowa for research purposes, gave Obama a 74 percent chance of winning, versus 24 percent for Clinton.
This is good news for Obama fans, because the IEM has been very accurate at picking the eventual winners of political contests--much moreso than polling. According to this Wikipedia article:
This may be because it uses a free market model to predict an outcome, instead of the aggregation of many individuals' opinions. The speculator is more interested in a correct outcome than in his or her desired outcome.
Best advice for those gambling on the election? Listen to Wesley Snipes: