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Elephants in the Room

« Previous Post | Main | Next Post »

It's the superdelegates, stupid

Filed under: Primary

super%20delegate.jpg
If this ABC analysis is correct, and the numbers certainly seem convincing, we're heading for a brokered convention:


ABC News' current delegate estimate has Obama at 1,555.

That means he would need to win 77% of all the remaining pledged delegates to hit the magic number of 2,024 to secure the nomination. That is highly unlikely due to the proportional delegate allocation rules in the Democratic Party.

Clinton would need to win 94% of all the remaining pledged delegates to hit the magic number of 2,024. (ABC News currently has her at 1449.)

So, clearly they both are going to be relying on superdelegates to secure the nomination.

Another possibility is that they have a "do-over" to reinstate the delegates of Michigan and Florida. In which case we're once again putting our faith in the completely bankrupt Florida election system. Michigan is the new New Hampshire.

Posted by Kevin Hoffman at March 5, 2008 9:32 AM

« Bush will endorse McCain tomorrow | Main | Clinton holds beer with left hand, pundits grasp for meaning »

Comments

I'm from Michigan (a recent transplant). I would have been so completely over-the-top bezerkly insane about the idiots getting disqualified from delegates because of a pissing contest to somehow be "better" by having an earlier primary. (Why not give up all this pandering to Iowa and just have EVERYone have their primaries on the same day?)

There should be absolutely NO re-vote. Simply taking the votes that were already cast, and letting them stand? Sure. Turning the delegates loose and voting as they are bribed to? Sure.

But a re-do is opening the door to having a re-do any other damn time a group of people get themselves screwed and then don't like the results.

One person - one vote.

Otherwise we should simply embrace Dewey: Vote early, vote often.

Posted by: GopherMPH at March 5, 2008 4:12 PM

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