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Don't trust this poll: 20-point Obama swing is proof it was an outlier
Filed under: Barack Obama
Remember a week ago when I linked to a poll showing Obama pulling dead-even with Hillary in Pennsylvania and argued that it must be an outlier? Well, new numbers released today by the same polling company, American Research Group, now show Obama down by 20 points, 57-37.
Steve Perry at MinMon claims that the swing was caused by Obama's comment that small-town voters cling to God and guns because they're bitter. I disagree. Even if that comment did damage him, there's no way it would be enough to cause a 20-point swing in just one week. Rather, I think this is proof positive that the April 5-6 poll showing the candidates locked at 45 percent was indeed an outlier and not an accurate poll.
The lesson: All polls are not created equal, and it's important to be skeptical and study the fine print before jumping to conclusions about what a poll "means."
Pennsylvania
Likely Democratic Primary Voters
Mar 7-8 / Mar 26-27 / Apr 5-6/ Apr 11-13
Clinton 52% / 51% / 45% / 57%
Obama 41% / 39% / 45% / 37%
Someone else 1% / 2% / 4% / 2%
Undecided 6% / 8% / 6% / 4%
Posted by Kevin Hoffman at April 14, 2008 11:17 AM
« GOP sex scandal of the day: Bruce Barclay | Main | The hawk's hawk gives McCain two talons up. »
Comments
Go Obama! Show America your true colors. Thought you could talk to your pals behind closed doors. Well, everyone in America now knows that you are a FAKE.
Posted by: Jean Junk at April 14, 2008 1:15 PM
The cloak is falling around Obamanation. It takes a blogger at Huffington to get the real truth to the public and past the gate guards and the fawning media who are busy kissing Obama's ring.
Posted by: Frank at April 14, 2008 1:20 PM
Check the dates on that poll, too..I think they finished polling on the 10th...this story didn't break till the 11th...so it couldn't have been " Hillary McCain's bitter-gate"...
Posted by: Penny at April 14, 2008 1:24 PM
Its a bitter pill when you realize the US Supreme Court, the Federal Reserve, and media do not have your best interests at heart. Obama is essentially decrying the fact that the government has duped the American people for decades. If they weren't being duped, they'd vote for the most liberal politician, the one who would put the most money in their pocket! Obama is the people's candidate as evidenced by his 1.2 million individual donors.
Posted by: greg martin at April 14, 2008 2:16 PM
I totally agree with the analysis of the polls. Having taken statistics I know how easy it is to manipulate them to trump up a story to whoever's benefit. Statistics never lie and liars use statistics and it couldn't be truer in this case.
This is a trumped up last-ditch, desperate effort by Hillary to keep her dying campaign on life support, which is being megaphoned by a right-leaning media that likes to stir the hornet's nest. How else can they make headwind out of something so utterly stupid as this and not pay much attention to John McCain's senile "Al Qaeda is in Iran" gaffe?
Give it up Hillary, it's time to go to bed!
Posted by: Truthsayer at April 14, 2008 3:03 PM
Do the Amish vote? What about the Amish lobby? All dressed in black, faces in a stone frown. Is there such a thing as the Amish Mafia? All mafia wear black, right? I dunno...
Posted by: Helm Matthews at April 14, 2008 10:46 PM
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