Minnesota in play? No way.

Republicans have given every indication that they want to put Minnesota in play this fall. The polls give no indication that will happen.

The latest from poll/baseball/poker analyst Nate Silver:

There just isn't much indication, however, that the state is liable to be competitive. Rasmussen's newest poll in Minnesota has Barack Obama leading John McCain by 13 points. This is technically not a bounce: Obama led by 12 and 13 points in Rasmussen's April and May polls, respectively.

Silver also says he's sitting on research that shows the selection of a VP candidate actually doesn't boost the presidential nominee's chances all that much in the veep's home state. This makes sense given history -- John Edwards, extremely popular in North Carolina, couldn't help John Kerry carry the state.


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