Primary

In bed with Republicans: Hillary Clinton cheats on the Democratic party UPDATED

Filed under: Primary

It was widely believed that if Hillary Clinton lost Indiana as well as North Carolina, she would be forced to exit the race. Now comes word in the new issue of Time that the only reason Hillary won Indiana was because of Republican shenanigans:

Clinton's slim margin of victory in Indiana was provided, appropriately enough, by Republicans, who were 10% of the Democratic-primary electorate and whose votes she carried 54% to 46% — some, perhaps, at the behest of the merry prankster Rush Limbaugh, who had counseled his ditto heads to bring "chaos" to the Democratic electoral process by voting for their favorite whipping girl. Clinton's new glow, her newfound stump proficiency, her symbiosis with Limbaugh, seemed an eerily Faustian narrative. But, as we know, those sorts of bargains tend to end badly.

The worst part about it is, she's not even repentent. Indeed, the Verbatim page in the front of the book features a quote from Hillary celebrating and joking about it:

'He's always had a crush on me.'

HILLARY CLINTON, on conservative talk-show host Rush Limbaugh, who called for Republicans to vote for Clinton as a way of keeping Democrats divided

Bill only cheated on his wife. Hillary is cheating on the entire Democratic party.

UPDATE: Last night, Saturday Night Live turned on Hillary. Here's the clip:

Posted by Kevin Hoffman at May 11, 2008 6:12 PM | Comments (2)

 

Obama pulling even with Hillary in Pennsylvania?

Filed under: Primary

This poll, showing Obama pulling even with Hillary in Pennsylvania, cannot possibly be correct:

Pennsylvania Democrats

Mar 7-8 / Mar 26-27 / Apr 5-6

Clinton 52% / 51% / 45%

Obama 41% / 39% / 45%

Someone else 1% / 2% / 4%

Undecided 6% / 8% / 6%

While I think the Bosnia lie did significant damage to Hillary's campaign, and Obama wasn't hurt nearly as bad as was initially suspected on the Radical Reverend (thanks in large part to the candidate's widely-hailed race speech), I think this much of a swing is beyond credibility and this poll is likely an outlier. That said, even a single-digit loss in Pennsylvania would be a win for Obama, and he appears to be building up an avalanche of support in North Carolina.

Posted by Kevin Hoffman at April 7, 2008 4:32 PM | Comments (1)

 

Always bet on black: Oddsmakers pick Obama 3 to 1

Filed under: Primary

Watching coverage of the presidential race since "Terminal Tuesday," I've been getting agitated at how the mainstream media blurs the facts in an attempt to turn this into a compelling horserace. The fact is, this contest, like so much of life, comes down to math, and it doesn't favor Hillary. To catch up, she'd need to win the 12 remaining contests by an average of 23 percentage points each--roughly double the margin she achieved on her most favorable terrain in Ohio, according to this Newsweek analysis.

While journalists are dealing from the bottom of the deck to keep viewers tuned in, the oddsmakers of the Iowa Electronic Market are heavily favoring Obama. According to this article:

Intrade traders gave Obama a 75 percent chance of winning the Democratic nomination for U.S. president, versus 23.5 percent for Clinton. Traders on the Iowa Electronic Markets, a nonprofit exchange run by the University of Iowa for research purposes, gave Obama a 74 percent chance of winning, versus 24 percent for Clinton.

This is good news for Obama fans, because the IEM has been very accurate at picking the eventual winners of political contests--much moreso than polling. According to this Wikipedia article:

This may be because it uses a free market model to predict an outcome, instead of the aggregation of many individuals' opinions. The speculator is more interested in a correct outcome than in his or her desired outcome.

Best advice for those gambling on the election? Listen to Wesley Snipes:

Posted by Kevin Hoffman at March 11, 2008 11:32 AM | Comments (0)

 

It's the superdelegates, stupid

Filed under: Primary

If this ABC analysis is correct, and the numbers certainly seem convincing, we're heading for a brokered convention:

ABC News' current delegate estimate has Obama at 1,555.

That means he would need to win 77% of all the remaining pledged delegates to hit the magic number of 2,024 to secure the nomination. That is highly unlikely due to the proportional delegate allocation rules in the Democratic Party.

Clinton would need to win 94% of all the remaining pledged delegates to hit the magic number of 2,024. (ABC News currently has her at 1449.)

So, clearly they both are going to be relying on superdelegates to secure the nomination.

Another possibility is that they have a "do-over" to reinstate the delegates of Michigan and Florida. In which case we're once again putting our faith in the completely bankrupt Florida election system. Michigan is the new New Hampshire.

Posted by Kevin Hoffman at March 5, 2008 9:32 AM | Comments (1)

 

Texas for CLINTON

Filed under: Primary

TEXAS
CLINTON 780,494 50%
OBAMA 760,548 48%

Posted by Kevin Hoffman at March 4, 2008 10:05 PM | Comments (0)

 

Ohio and Texas could decide it today

Filed under: Primary

By the end of the evening, we may (or may not) know the Democratic candidate for president. Weather could be a factor in Cleveland:

THIS AFTERNOON
FREEZING RAIN MIXED WITH SLEET. ADDITIONAL ICE ACCUMULATION OF LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH. BRISK WINDS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT.

TONIGHT
FREEZING RAIN BEFORE MIDNIGHT...CHANGING TO SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION AROUND AN INCH ALONG WITH A GLAZE OF ICE. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. BRISK NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH BECOMING NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT.

Posted by Kevin Hoffman at March 4, 2008 9:58 AM | Comments (0)