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Deck the Halls...

Throw out the 18 games he played as a September call-up in 1986, and Mark McGwire played 15 seasons. Be honest with yourself, and say, worried about his future after missing most of two seasons, and only playing 104 games in a third, he began to use something in 1996, and was on it for the 1996 through 1999 seasons, when he hit 52, 58, 70, and 65 homers, respectively. Throw out those four seasons, and the two where he was hurt (93 and 94), and add up the homers...317. Three hundred Seventeen, divided by 9 seasons equals 35 homers and change. Now, multiply those 35 homers by 15 fictional seasons, and you get 525 home runs.

What does this mean? You can Sabremetricize him into the Hall based on an adjusted average of his numbers, 500 homers is an automatic ticket. However, use that fictional 35 HR average again, and subtract the differences during his 4 astonishing seasons; if you give him his 35 homers a year through those years and subtract the rest, you take 105 dingers off of his 583 total, leaving him with 478 for his career. The Crime Dog, Fred McGriff, is the only other retired player with that many homers who's not in the Hall yet. But, that number is right about the spot in the order where the Hall tickets drop off, 500 really being a magic number of sorts.

I'm splitting hairs, but the numbers for me are 9 and 22. I don't think there's any doubt he cheated to get 9 extra homeruns in a season for the record, and 22 extra homeruns for 500 in a career. Without that now surpassed record, and that 500 plateau, we probably would be haggling over whether he belonged in the Hall, but it would be more along the lines of how folks are haggling over Blyleven right now, trying to work numbers to prove he was a dominant player of some sort. Without the juice, I think McGwire was a feared hitter to an extent, and, he was part of some great teams. But in my own tortured analysis of the situation, I just don't think he belongs in the Hall.

Posted by Jack Sparks at January 10, 2007 8:54 AM

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