The Big Game XLI
The keys to this game are Bob Sanders and Nick Harper. Sanders makes Indy's D a different unit because, surprise, he can actually tackle, something the other 10 guys can't do. Harper is hurt and plays CB for the Colts. Look for the Bears to test his side of the field, regardless of whether he's there, early, with Bernard Berrian. If these two guys play well for the Colts, it will be a good close game. If somehow they become the Achilles' heal(s), then it's going to be a long day for Indy.
It's important to note that Manning threw 9 interceptions in 16 regular season games; he's thrown 6 in 3 playoff games against the Chiefs (3), Ravens (2), and Pats (1). He had a pretty good 2nd half in the AFC Championship game, but, if he comes out flat against the Bears, that defense will bury him.
I would bet the Bears to cover the spread at the start of the game, for sure. At halftime, if Sanders and Harper look broke, sticky, and confused, I'd press, reverse the spread and maybe give a few more points. Once you see the Bill Simmons' coined "Manning Face," you'll know it's over.