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LNW! The (Anti) Tip Sheet

Filed under: Stories

I've got a pretty remarkable streak of futility going at the racetrack. In two years of betting--encompassing roughly ten visits to Canterbury Park--I've not won a single bet. If you figure I probably bet on an average of seven races during each visit, this means I've managed to wrongly predict roughly 70 races in a row.

Luckily for my (non-existent) bankroll, this gambling has largely been restricted to $2 wagers. The most I've expended on any one race is $10 on a quarterhorse after receiving a tip up in the Canterbury press box that this particularly beast ran well in the mud. (I don't recall where that doomed horse finished, but it certainly wasn't first.) A nadir of sorts was reached near the end of the 2002 season when two of the thoroughbreds I bet on failed to even finish their races.

In order to subsidize my cursed betting habit, I've long contemplated becoming a tout. Unlike most track hucksters, however, my tip sheet would announce which horse, based on my predictive incompetence, is destined to lose each race. Granted this would not guarantee tip-sheet customers a sure thing, but it would at least narrow the field of possible winners. I would sell this valuable piece of information for a buck at each meet. In addition, I would offer to refund the purchase price if--by some miracle--one of my horses actually wins. (Of course, like any good tout, I might be forced to make myself scarce if this scenario actually played out.)

To prepare for this new line of work, I've been reading Scarne's New Complete Guide to Gambling, generously given to me by Mosedale recently. It's a fascinating, boastful, absurdly authoritative guide to one of the world's oldest, grandest--and financially ruinous--pastimes. (It was originally published in 1961, but I'm reading the updated 1974 version.) Consider, to cite just one example, this little nugget:

As to the employment of FBI agents in tracking down bookies all over the country, I agree with my friend, the late J. Edgar Hoover, former Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation, who said, "The FBI has much more important functions to accomplish than arresting gamblers all over the country."

I couldn't agree more!

As for touts, Scarne provides some sage counsel for would-be gamblers:

All touts follow the same rule: Never give a sucker an even break. What the sucker should ask himself and seldom does are these questions: Why, if this guy's selections are so good, doesn't he have a fat bankroll? Why is he trying to get money by giving me winners? Why doesn't he use his own money to bet on these surefire tips? The answer, of course, is that the tout doesn't really believe in his own selections.

The genius of my idea is that it renders all these quibbles irrelevant. Not only do I promise to bet on all my projected winners (admittedly you must take this pledge on good faith), but the buyer of my tip sheet will have been duly warned not to make the same mistake.

I'm still working out the specifics. If anyone would like to suggest a name for this endeavor, please shoot me an email. (So far I'm leaning toward "Soon to be Glue") 

For now, I will offer up, gratis, as a favor to faithful LNW! readers, my pick in this Saturday's 130th running of the Kentucky Derby. It's a highly volatile field, with a full slate of 20 horses likely and no consensus favorite. Right now, The Cliff's Edge looks to be the bookmakers' top choice. I've flirted with putting my money behind Castledale, surprise winner of the Santa Anita Derby. And I'm tempted by the massive racing neophyte Rock Hard Ten. But ultimately I've settled on Smarty Jones, winner of the Arkansas Derby. The insiders say he can't hold out for 1 1/4 miles, but I don't believe this hokum.

So you've been warned: "Soon to be Glue" says Smarty Jones will win the Derby.

(For a more informed opinion, the dean of horseracing writers, Andy Beyer, will be chatting live at the Daily Racing Form web site this Wednesday at 7:30 p.m. CST.)

I'm off to New Orleans for JazzFest. No posting for a week or so.

Posted by Paul Demko at April 26, 2004 9:17 PM

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