Will Colorado be this year's Florida?

Colorado's ballot will contain a measure that lets citizens decide whether they want to dole out electoral votes proportionally, rather than on a winner-take-all basis. (Currently only two states--Maine and Nebraska--have some form of proportional allocation.) The most recent poll shows a majority of voters supporting the change in election law. If passed, the measure would take hold immediately--and could swing the entire election.

Consider the 2000 election. After everything shook out in Florida, this was the final electoral count: Bush 271, Gore 266. In Colorado, Bush won by a margin of 51 percent to 42 percent. Under the old system, Bush took all eight electoral votes. 

Now consider if Colorado had delegated its votes proportionally in 2000. By my calculus, Bush would have gotten five electoral votes, while Gore would have received three. The final tally under this scenario? Gore 269, Bush 268. Florida would have been irrelevant. We'd be deciding whether to re-elect President Gore.

But the reason I say that Colorado could be this year's Florida is because the matter may ultimately be decided in the courts. Here's a snippet from a recent MSNBC story on the ballot initiative:

Even if it wins, the measure is certain to be challenged in the courts due to questions about its constitutionality.

Article II of the Constitution says "Each State shall appoint, in such Manner as the Legislature thereof may direct, a Number of Electors."

Right now the state seems to be a toss-up.

Despite Matthew Dowd's hilarious attempts to, quite literally, portray John Kerry as the next Cicero, nobody expects a goddamn thing from him in tonight's "debate." So long as Kerry doesn't put down Jesus or speak French, the spin coming out of the debate will be that he more than held his own against the folksy Texas sod slinger. Then we'll have countless idiotic stories (like this one) in the days to come about what a great "finisher" Kerry is--whatever on earth that means.

The media pooh-bahs are increasingly desperate for a Kerry comeback. They're terrified at the thought of an electoral blowout. It makes them feel so insignificant.

The New York Times reports that, since 1992, annual garlic consumption has increased from 3/8 of a pound per person to 3.1 pounds.

Workers at the Minnesota Beef Industries plant in Buffalo Lake voted to join United Food and Commercial Workers Local 789 today. The margin was 53-46 in favor of unionizing.

It was the second time in recent months that the roughly 125 slaughterhouse employees, the vast majority of whom are Hispanic, have voted on the issue. In May, the workers rejected unionization by a margin of 67-32. But the plant was orderd by the National Labor Relations Board to hold a new election after it was determined that the company violated labor laws by threatening to fire or deport union supporters.

I've posted Local 789's press release.

Robert Novak's column yesterday was an extraordinary heap of b.s.--even by his standards. 

For those who missed it, Novak posited that immediately after the election the Bush administration will implement a rapid withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq. By this time next year, according to Novak's "sources" (none of which are named naturally), there will be no American troops in Iraq.

Now this is extraordinary because it runs completely counter to everything that's ever been publicly uttered by Team W. In fact, it's basically the Dennis Kucinich position.

The most hilarious graf in Novak's column (although it was extremely difficult to choose) is the one where he attempts to come up with some supposed intellectual justification for rapid withdrawal:

Getting out now would not end expensive U.S. reconstruction of Iraq, and certainly would not stop the fighting. Without U.S. troops, the civil war cited as the worst-case outcome by the recently leaked National Intelligence Estimate would be a reality. It would then take a resolute president to stand aside while Iraqis battle it out. (My italics).

In other words, it would be an extraordinary act of courage for President Bush to stand idly by as Iraqis slaughtered each other in a fit of sectarian violence. I guess, by this reasoning, President Clinton and the U.N. displayed great fortitude by ignoring the slaughter of 800,000 Rwandans in the mid-90s. Perhaps Novak's next column will be a salute to the courageous world leaders currently averting their eyes from the genocide in Sudan.

But my main point is this: Robert Novak is full of hooey. There's no way the Bush administration is going to rapidly withdraw from Iraq. Such a plan would fly in the face of everything the neo-cons believe. It would undermine their entire worldview. All those cute theories about democracy and the Middle East that Wolfowitz dreamed up in the 90s from his ivory tower at John Hopkins University would be rendered irrelevant. This won't happen. These people never admit they're wrong. They've drank too much of the Kool-Aid.

Novak, as usual, is being used by Team W. as a convenient mouthpiece. My theory is that they're floating this notion of a withdrawal to appease the increasingly disgruntled isolationist wing of the GOP, as personified by Pat Buchanan. These folks are appalled by our actions in Iraq, but there's little chance they'll vote for John Kerry. They might, however, just decide to cool their heals at home on election day. This is the administration's disingenuous attempt to get them back on the bus.

I've been down in Hastings much of this week watching the murder trial of Thanh "Tony" Quan Tran. It's a fascinating case, ripe with sex, gambling, and violence. Tran met Laura Xiong out at Canterbury Park. They gambled and screwed and ran up huge debts. Then they allegedly conspired to kill Xiong's husband for an $850,000 life-insurance policy.

Speaking of Canterbury, the Fall Poker Classic gets underway out there tomorrow. There are 15 events over the next two weeks, with buy-ins ranging from $100 to $1,000. The big event is the $1,000 buy-in, no-limit hold-em tournament, with $100,000 in payouts guaranteed.

I'm a little too poor to properly participate. But I'm going to head out there tomorrow morning and see if I can win my way into an event or two via a $40 satellite tournament.