Is McCain the October Surprise?

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Cheney rumors reach page one of the NYT

Elisabeth Bumiller writes this morning that one of the more super-heated rumors making the rounds in Washington has Dick Cheney resigning from the Republican ticket next month for opportunely timed health reasons.

She mentions by name Colin Powell and John McCain as possible replacements. The latter seems eminently more plausible--especially in light of the recent boy-bonding between Bush and McCain, who have long disliked each other intensely. I assumed the explanation involved dirt that Karl Rove had turned up about McCain or his family. Or perhaps McCain's striking public change of heart a couple of months back reflected a different sort of understanding entirely.