May 2006

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You leave town for a week...

Filed under: Twins

...and everything changes.

So I dropped off the grid for a week, spending most of my time either on a train or in a car and therefore disconnected with whatever the Twins were doing. To be honest, I couldn't care less what the Twins were doing, having reached my frustration threshold at a record pace this spring. Then, a few days ago, I get back to Minneapolis to find a completely different team on the field. Well, not completely. Fat Tony's still out there, as is Castro, unfortunately. Still, changes are being made, which proves that the team isn't ready to roll over for the Sox and Tigers just yet (and how about those Tigers, by the way?). A few of those changes:

Boof Bonser. I like the demotion of Kyle Lohse more than words can say, and if his line from his debut can hold up through a few more starts, this move will just keep getting better. Plus, his name is Boof. C'mon.

Cuddyer has a better handle on his role. That makes a cute headline, but I'm not sure it's entirely accurate. He just seems to be settling down, thanks to a guaranteed job and decreased expectations. His numbers lately have looked more and more like the prospect he's always been touted to be. That's perhaps that best news of the year so far.

Jason Kubel. With Shannon Stewart on the disabled list, Kubel once again has a chance to prove that he belongs. The trouble is, Gardenhire keeps starting Lew Strikeout in left field and plugging Kubel in to pinch-hit during high-stress ninth-inning situations. Kubel's looking like the Cuddyer saga all over again, and that's perhaps the worst news of the year.

Check that. Carlos Silva is the worst news of the year. Whoever wrote this has to feel like a total jackass right about now.

The stadium. This probably won't affect the current team, but I'm jazzed about it anyway.

Francisco Liriano. He's as good as anticipated, and if Silva ever makes his way back into the rotation, it's not gonna be "Franchise" who loses his spot. It should be Radke, but his seniority and contract are both too large to let that happen. Plus, then we'd have three rookie starters, and I can't recall a team ever doing that.

Gardenhire. Because some things never change, even when they ought to. He's still managing like he's entitled to his job and not in danger of losing it, as he should be, and he's still throwing tantrums like a 250-pound toddler.

Is it a better team? Maybe. Their recent home-stands seem to testify to that, and if they can win as often on the road as they do in the Dome, they'll be over .500 in no time. The first step is winning tonight's match-up between Liriano and his West Coast counterpart, "King" Felix Hernandez. It could be the Santana-Buehrle rivalry of tomorrow. Me, I'm rooting for a blow-out.

Posted by Chuck Terhark at May 26, 2006 9:21 AM | Comments (0)

 

Western Conference Finals Preview: The Suns Set in the West

Filed under: NBA

First of all, this is a matchup of the two best coaches in the postseason thus far. I happened to see Mike D'Antoni interviewed the day after the controversial last-second loss to the Lakers (Nash fouled then stripped as he tried to call a timeout) sent Phoenix down 3-1 and the guy just exuded calm confidence. Right then I knew that Phoenix had a decent chance to get to the second round. The other thing you have to admire about D'Antoni is that he plays unlike anybody in the league and goes out and gets parts to fit his system. Boris Diaw was obviously the main coup this year, but the acquisitions of Raja Bell and Tim Thomas weren't too shabby either. Granted that's the GM (now toiling in Toronto) but D'Antoni was obviously consulted and made it work. And flipping Barbosa over to the two-guard was a bold and savvy stroke that is all D'Antoni. This is a team that has won the divisional title and reached the Conference Finals two years in a row playing without a center, in constant transition. They're just a hell of a lot of fun. And the brains behind it all on the sidelines fades into the woodwork as much as he can.

As for Avery Johnson, well, I am now munching on my vote for Flip Saunders as coach of the year after AJ's insertion of Devon Harris at the point totally flummoxed the Spurs and literally changed the equation of how the entire second round series would be played.

Just like that; one bold masterstroke and San Antonio was exposed for its lack of foot speed, and forced to keep a money player like Robert Horry chained to the bench. Johnson's decision to not automatically double team Tim Duncan in the low block was another gutsy, if not as wildly successful, decision. And it is well known that Johnson's emphasis on defense has provided the Mavs with a personality transplant. (BTW, doesn't this throw a little more dirt on Don Nelson's reputation? D'Antoni did a "double Nelly" better than the original with his peddle-to-the-metal small-ball and crazy matchups, and Avery demonstrated that Nelson already had championship caliber talent if he just knew how to use it--and that's minus Michael Finley and Steve Nash.)

So, do the favored Mavs follow form and knock off Phoenix, or are the Suns just too charmed to go away just yet?

Dallas in 7.

If this was simply about talent and cohesion, I'd say Dallas in 5 or 6. Now that the Spurs are gone--and right up until Nowitzski's unbelievable three point play at the close of reg in Game 7 I would have bet good money on San Antonio repeating--the Mavs have depth, versatility, a superb young coach, an inspirational team leader, and a lovably iconoclastic owner (at least I've always appreciated the way Cuban has been the only nouveau moneybags who honestly acts out every hoop schlub's fantasy of owning a team and treating it the way any die-hard fan would).

But playing Phoenix takes both discipline and some accomodation, especially after series against a Fratello-coached Grizzlies and a Popovich-coached Spurs. You don't think Nowitzki, Terry, Howard, Harris, Daniels and the boys aren't going to succumb to the temptation to run with the Suns? Yes, if anyone from the NBA's final eight could have beaten Phoenix at its own game, it's Dallas. But the odds of the Mavs winning still plummet the fewer times the ball is dribbled. Phoenix will win at least one, and maybe two, abject shootouts, where the loser tops 105 points. And I think Phoenix will spurt enough and draw upon their eerie karma enough to steal a game that is relatively low-scoring for them. But Phoenix beating the Mavs more often than not? Uh-unh. Here are three reasons why:

1)Less rest for Steve Nash. At the beginning of this year, I predicted Phoenix wouldn't even make the playoffs because Nash would get injured (another brilliant prognostication, eh?). It didn't happen, but the rationale for it was based on the fact that Nash simply lacks the stamina and durability to perform at peak level for as long as the Dirks and Kobes and KGs and, apparently, even the foot-impaired Duncans of the world. It's already been bandied about a fair amount, and I hate to follow the pack, but the fact that there is less rest between games in the finals, and that the Mavs are quicker than the Clips, is going to take its toll on Nash.

2) The quickening superstardom of Nowitzki. The big Kraut is in a zone, and if the Spurs couldn't rattle him out of it, what with Bruce Bowen and Duncan and their black and blue style, how are the Suns going to disrupt this guy? He'll get 40 one night, dish for 8 assists another, grab 23 rebounds a third. And it will all be in the flow of the game. If the Suns elect to guard him with Shawn Marion they are going to get killed on the boards--never mind Diop and Dampier, Josh Howard will go nuts. Boris Diaw probably isn't quick enough. Tim Thomas doesn't have the bulk. I mean, Nowitzki's a legit seven feet. Oh, and if Phoenix doubles him, Nowitzki demonstrated against the Spurs that he'll dish to Terry, Harris and the rest of the crew.

3. Avery Johnson will grab the reins often enough. The Suns' only hope is what the Suns only hope always is--run like banshees for 48 minutes in hopes of transition hoops, and if the opponent gets back in time, spread the floor, then drive and kick out for treys, or dish to the perimeter and then hit the cutters down the middle. It is up to Johnson to prevent a track meet as often as possible, and to let his bigs handle the penetration on their own so the Mavs can contain the perimeter. Personally, I think Diop is better able to handle this than Dampier, who will accumulate many fouls per minute in this series, so Dallas has to hope his broken nose is not a problem. But Avery Johnson has built this team to succeed in the playoffs, and as good as Mike D'Antoni is, he and his squad simply don't have the horses to overwhelm Dallas. We all get to have a hell of a lot of fun watching them try, though.

Posted by Britt Robson at May 24, 2006 4:39 PM | Comments (8)

 

Three-Pointer: Heat-Pistons Opener

Filed under: NBA

1. No substitute for watching
Right after I posted my series pick of Pistons in 6, three respondents quickly chimed in to rebut me. The difference? They'd obviously been watching a lot more of the Pistons-Cavs series than I did. (For the record, I didn't see any of the games end-to-end, and missed two of the three Cavs wins entirely.) I did watch most of Game 7, particularly in the second half when that famed Pistons D came back into vogue, and figured they'd merely been coasting in their losses. And I'd seen enough of the Heat in the first two rounds to discern what I thought would be their weaknesses versus Detroit (and may still be).

But there is no substitute for getting a feel for a team game in and game out, and I'm afraid my sporadic playoffs watching--as good as the postseason has been, alas--is going to work against me in the Western Conference as well. (Ironically, I've seen just about every playoff game Phoenix has played, so have the best take on them. But mid-evening commitments prevented me from seeing a lot of the first halves of that classic Mavs-Spurs series.) So be forewarned: I'll be parading my ignorance once more in the Mavs-Suns preview I'll post later today. Meanwhile, please continue to enlighten me out there folks, and, my crazy schedule permitting, I'll try and keep up.

2. Veteran bench steps up.
Much was made about how Miami actually outscored Detroit after Wade went out with foul trouble in the third quarter. But the key for me was late in the second period, when both Wade and Shaq had to sit with foul trouble, on the tail end of a Pistons' run no less. If there was ever a time for Detroit to grab the game by the throat it was then. But Gary Payton turned back the clock, going off for three quick buckets and playing engaged D, almost like the old days. And Antoine Walker, always a great second banana so long as it is not beside a superstar like Shaq or Wade, played off Payton perfectly and got some buckets and strong rotations of his own. Throw in 'Zo, who you knew would give you quality, and Miami actually quelled the Pistons momentum and bumped the lead to six heading into halftime. Not to slight Jason Williams' third quarter heroics and the way Miami battled back after the Pistons had seized the lead, but that second quarter was the real confidence-builder for a couple of vets whose contribution is going to be vital in this series.

3. Billups and Billups and Hamilton, oh my
We can talk all we want about Miami's depth coming through (in fact I just did, didn't I?) but if Detroit hits a few of those eminently makeable shots from outside with any kind of consistency, the Pistons exploit the Heat's foul troubles to win this one going away. Chauncey Billups in particular had what for him was a horrendous shooting performance, and Rip Hamilton, who is out on the floor for one reason and that's to fill it up, was likewise tepid. It wasn't Miami's defense either--those are looks Detroit has been getting and converting all season (but maybe not in those Cavs' games I missed?). Lindsay Hunter and Antonio McDyess did their job off the bench. 'Sheed could have done more than 7 points, but he's a little banged up and is jousting with the leviathans down low. You never expect much from Ben Wallace on offense. And Tayshaun Prince should be using as much energy as possible for defending Wade. That leaves the backcourt, and if they don't regain their shooting touch in Game Two, this could be a pretty short series.

Posted by Britt Robson at May 24, 2006 10:15 AM | Comments (3)

 

Eastern Conference Finals Preview

Filed under: NBA

The team with all the depth has had all the rest, while the squad who only goes seven deep was pushed to seven games in the previous round. With Shaq, Mourning, Haslem and even veteran banger Michael Doleac, the Miami Heat have the beef to bully the Detroit Pistons underneath. And with a surfeit of graybeard vets who probably just have this last legitimate shot at a ring--Shaq, Mourning, Payton, 'Toine Walker, and coach Pat Riley--there is motivation aplenty for Miami to will themselves to the NBA Finals.

Detroit in 6.

The top three reasons I like the Pistons.
1) Miami doesn't have a good answer for Chauncey Billups.

Cleveland's Eric Snow is being given a ton of credit for forcing Billups into a subpar series in the second round, but I think Billups just hit a bad patch. Yes, Snow had something to do with it, but let's face it, the Pistons, and particularly Billups, were due for a little ennui at some point on this long trek back to the third straight championship finals. And once they had schooled the Cavs twice early, it happened in the middle three games of the series. Now, Billups will be focused, and have the underwhelming Jason Williams defending him when the waaaay-past-his-prime Gary Payton isn't. That means Billups will get his own shot, from outside the arc or off the dribble, pretty much whenever he wants it, with the tug of a rotten Cavs series spurring him on. I think he averages 20 points per game (if, as expected, the scores are in the 90s; he'll get more if Detroit goes into triple digits) this time.

2)The Pistons have at least partial answers for Dwyane Wade. I happen to think Wade is the second-best player off the dribble in the league this year--better than Kobe and AI, which is really saying something. But the Pistons just finished playing the one guy who is Wade's superior, in LeBron. Wade is slightly quicker but also appreciably smaller, meaning the Pistons can throw Rip Hamilton on him occasionally and use Tayshaun Prince, their invaluable stopper, only at the most crucial times, as when Shaq is on the bench and the Heat are relying on Wade to carry the entire load. I think Wade will have a marvelous series--perhaps only Iverson is more fun to watch this year, including LeBron, whose enormous heart is more closely camoflagued by his incredible physique--but eventually Prince will take enough out of him to prevent Wade from willing his team to four wins. Plus, don't underestimate the fact that Wade will have to chase Hamilton, the perpetual motion machine, through dozens of Flip's famous picks; or guard Billups, who is the most physical quality point guard any defender faces.

3) Experience. This is usually an overrated quality. But when you've won 11 of your past 12 elimination games, pretty much with the same guys, over the past four years or so, it really matters. Like the Spurs, you will have to drive a stake into the heart of the Pistons, they won't fold. And there is no opponent the caliber of Dallas to do that in this series.

For Devil's Advocacy sake, I think the Heat wins if the whistles blow in their direction. Between Wade's penetration and O'Neal's post-up game, they have two of the league's most productive generator of fouls on opponents. Ben Wallace can't afford to foul Wade on layups very often, if ever--he's got to save every foul for Shaq. And if Ben Wallace does get in foul trouble early, the Pistons are in deep shit, what with the beef Miami can bring. Antonio McDyess has already proven in the playoffs why he, and not Mike Miller, was the 6th Man of the Year, but with just him and 'Sheed against the likes of Shaq, Mourning, and Haslem, it becomes a rough, rough go. Don't underestimate Mourning's contribution--in fact I think whoever plays best between McDyess and Mourning will be a crucial swing factor in this series--because Zo was great versus Miami and have a thrilling desire to win. There is also the chance that Walker and Posey and Williams will get hot from behind the arc, freeing up the double-teams on Shaq, allowing the big aristotle to go off and regain the rhythm that Miami needs to pull the upset. This all could happen, but I think Billups, McDyess and company (including Lindsay Hunter who is the logical guy to implement Flip's standard practice of putting full-court pressure on J-Will, and has had great success against Wchoc's team as a result) have had their scare and will beat back a team that unfortunately needs to rely on Wade a tad too much to triumph. Unless the Pistons get in foul trouble of course.

What does everybody else think? I feel badly that we've let this blog lag during an unbelievable two rounds of NBA beauty. Let's see if we can all put our oars in a little more for the final two rounds.

Posted by Britt Robson at May 23, 2006 3:42 PM | Comments (8)

 

Old man take a look at my life

When Julio Franco hit a home run for the Mets earlier this season, he became the oldest (48 years old) player in league history to do so (I remember him fondly as a rare bright spot for the Cleveland Indians in the early '80s, knocking the ball around the urine-perfumed confines of Municipal Stadium). He's got nothing on this guy, but still, some sort of commemoration seems in order. And here's just the thing, taking into account the astonishing fact that Franco's career has spanned the entire history of video baseball games.

Posted by Quinton Skinner at May 17, 2006 9:20 PM | Comments (2)

 

The beautiful (con) game

Over the years, it has been my pleasure to enjoy a steady correspdondence with the progeny and widows of such African eminences as Mobutu Sese Seko, Laurent Kabila, Sani Abacha, and Foday Sanko. I was distinctly honored, naturally, to be invited to join banking ventures with these esteemed individuals.

Not being an international financier, however, I was unqualified to participate in any of these lucrative transactions. And so I considered myself duly fortunate finally to receive a solicitation in an area of my own interest: The World Cup. The fact that this business proposal involved Africa's greatest statesman and moral beacon? Well, you can imagine that the thrill was greater than scoring a goal in Germany 2006 with my own left foot.

DESK OF CHAIRMAN
Sub-Committee on Finance
South African World Cup bid 2010
24 Steven Bikko Blvrd Pretoria,
Republic Of South Africa.
Email: REDACTED
Attn: Ceo,

Greetings you must be aware now that my country The Republic of South Africa won the bid to host the world cup by 2010, prior to this bid my committee was mandated to lobby the members of board of Federation International Football Association (FIFA) on selection of the country to host the world, the bidding was intensive but at the end we got the hosting right.

My committee was given the sum of $29 million dollars to lobby the members of the FIFA ruling body to make sure that we win the hosting right considering he gain that comes with the hosting right like South Africa's economy will receive a massive direct boost from hosting the 2010 World Cup, financial impact report for South Africa's World Cup bid committee shows that the 2010 World Cup will pump R21.3-billion into South Africa's economy, and creating an estimated 159 000 new jobs.

With the help the living legend of our time 85-year-old Nobel Peace Prize winner Dr. Nelson Mandela who made an emotive case for The Republic of South Africa, we got the bid without spending all the money, I and my committee members saw this as a God sent opportunity to secure our future and that of our family therefore was mandated by other committee members to look for a way to move the remaining money to a safe place with the help of a foreigner who we can trust and is ready to assist us to move the funds considering the fact that we are still members of the bid committee and in the eyes of the public.

We have in our possession the sum $21 millon since we spent just $8 million for lobbying. We are ready to give you 20% for all your assistance then me and my colleagues will keep 80% lf you are willing kindly reply to my letter for further directive. we will want to invest our share into Real-estate and air taxi business in your country with your assistance, bearing in mind that confidentiality is of great essences so is time in this project I will await your response.

Best Regards
Mr.Mike Muyeke

All responses should be sent to: REDACTED

Obviously, I fully intend to avail myself of this exciting opportunity. After all, could it be any more dubious or corrupt an enterprise than the governing bodies of footie?

Posted by Michael Tortorello at May 17, 2006 10:50 AM | Comments (1)

 

Open thread: NBA Second Round

Filed under: NBA

Okay folks, sorry I don't have time for analysis right now, but I do want to open this thread for anyone who wants to talk about the second-round of the series. Hopefully I'll elaborate later, but here are my picks:

Miami over New Jersey in 6.
Detroit over Cleveland in 5.
Clippers over Phoenix in 6.
San Antonio over Dallas in 6. (No way to prove it, but this was my pick even before the Spurs triumphed this afternoon. For that matter, barring injuries or as of now unforeseen circumstances, I think San Antonio will again beat the Pistons and repeat as champs. But let's not get too far ahead of ourselves.)

Other permissible comment topics: The Phoenix comeback (otherwise known as the Kwame-Smush el foldo); the little white guy winning his second straight undeserved MVP; rethinking coach of the year and MVP by including playoffs in the context; and the extracurricular activities on the court (from Reggie Evans's nut grab to Raja Bell's clothesline to Udonis Haslem's mouthpiece toss).

Posted by Britt Robson at May 7, 2006 6:07 PM | Comments (15)

 

Foul tip: Wait 'til last year!

Filed under: Twins

Twins of 2006 starting to look just like the Twins of 2005

Going into tonight's game at the Dome, there's plenty of hand-wringing--in the daily newspapers, at least--about whether the Twins can overcome their 33-1 drubbing at the hands of Detroit last weekend. I'll humbly offer that that is the wrong question to consider.

We're one month into the season, a time when we can really take stock of this year's Twinkies. The real question is, now that the pitching is relatively back on track, are the Twins going to revert all the way back to 2005 form? If so, that's a shame, because that will make it hard to write off the team entirely.

Still, every indication this week was that the pitching's going to be stellar, and the hitting's going to suck, just like last year. (To add to the flashback feeling, both Cotton Joe Mays and Dougie Baseball made return appearances to the Dome this week.)

Santana, Radke and Silva all had excellent performances this week, and Juan Rincon, Joe Nathan and even Dennys Reyes looked unhittable. And for this, they were mostly rewarded with the Bats of Deafening Silence that has become the Twins' trademark in the last 12 months.

All of this makes for a rather torturous time watching this team--losing big can at least carry the welcome weight of diminished expectations. But like last night's game proved, most contests will ultimately be unsatisfying nailbiters, with the Twins failing to take exceptional pitching to the win column.

At any rate, here are some notables:

1. Bradke Ball takes a vacation. Just days after I called for the team to give the exhausted-looking Brad Radke a break in the rotation, he pitches a stellar game on Wednesday night, and manages to snap his streak of giving up a home run within the first three innings in every game this season. My cap's off to you, Brad, but as wildman and lifelong Royal fan Jack Sparks put it outside the Dome after the game: You pitched great against what might charitably be a called a Triple-A club.

2. Off-season upgrades? Any hopes I had for Ruben Sierra adding some grimace to this boyish outfit is gone now that he's torn a bicep and will be out indefinitely. And everyone knows that Rondell White, alas, is a total wash.

Still, that's not to say the Twins haven't improved in some places. I'm honestly starting to think Tony Batista is a good call at third base--he's more agile than I thought, and he has an amazingly consitent arm. Luis Castillo is looking like the frontrunner to be freakin' MVP of the team. And Reyes just may be the lefty reliever that finally pushed Francisco Liriano into the starting rotation. Upgrades, all of them--so why isn't the team improved?

3. The Gambler factor. Kenny Rogers was the darkhorse of the pitching staff when he was here with the Twins, and the team made a mistake of not trying to resigning him a couple years ago. He's tougher'n nails wherever he goes, and his career record is almost exactly the same as that of the vaunted Curt Schilling.

He's started off strong again this season (4-2, 2.59 ERA) and he's probably still bitter about not being asked back here, because that's just the kind of pill he is. All of this is a long way of saying that, with him on the mound tonight, the Twins will start this three-game series one in the hole.

Comments and reactions to this and the series are welcome all weekend long.

Posted by G.R. Anderson Jr. at May 5, 2006 4:40 PM | Comments (5)

 

More Derby musings

Filed under: Horse Racing

The redoubtable Garwood B. Jones, best known for his Wolves-related commentary in this spot, has sent forth some lengthy, informative (and undoubtedly misguided) commentary on Saturday's race. Because it's difficult to post links in the comments section (and because he sucked up to me by making an informed comment about poor Frankie Hejduk), I'm posting it as a separate item. Keep those comments coming! Soon I will post my superfecta pick so that all can be sufficiently warned away from those poor, doomed beasts.

Garwood B. Jones

Glad to see Demko's enthusiasm for the ponies spilling onto the venerable pages of the Balls! Blog.

Last year I barely kept my streak of winning money betting on the Derby alive. All I cashed was a $5 place bet on Closing Argument, but that $175 more than paid for a lot of other terrible betting, drinking, and processed meat consumption.

Jack has set up the race nicely except that I think there will be two "crap horse(s)" who are "going to come in ... and destroy everybody's superfecta." I haven’t decided on the second yet but I can tell you that one of them will be Jazil (Jazz-ull).

Jazil drew the inside post and is going to get a ground saving trip along the rail. In the Wood, he gobbled up Keyed Entry down the stretch like he was standing still. He would have rolled past Bob and John in another 50-100 yards. He looked like he had plenty of run in him. Without a win to his name in 2005 (he's only won once lifetime) that 2nd place showing vaulted him up to 17th in earnings and got him into the field. Though he hasn't hit triple digits yet, his beyers are going in the right direction and he seems to be improving and holding his own against quality horses. Here's what his handlers had to say after the Wood.

Jara is going to have a lot more to do in the Derby than he did in the slop at Aquaduct but if the pace battle that everyone is predicting sets up, Jazil's going to be flying at the finish. He won't likely go off at more than 30-1 but there is a huge amount of value there anywhere from 20-1 on up. He's trained by the same guy that trained Closing Argument last year, he's the only legitimate deep closer in a race that figures to set up for deep closers, and damn, if he doesn't looks great.

---
Now, I'm a value better, so I'm always looking for angles to "throw out" the chalk. I guess I'm inclined to believe that Lawyer Ron in the 17th position is dismissable at 4-1. The Arkansas Derby wasn't that great a field and he's raced 14 times. He’s got good tactical speed so he could avoid the crush to front but when was the last time a horse with 14 previous starts won the Derby?

I'm similarly going to pass on the California shippers. Brother Derek was impressive in the SA Derby but for much the same reasons as noted above by Andy, I'm leaving Derek, AP Warrior, and Point Determined out (though Brother Derek might find his way onto the bottom of my favorite exotic, the $1 partial tri-key).

I don't think you can leave Barbaro out of anything and in my book he's the most likely winner. His Florida Derby win is particularly impressive given that he started in the 10 hole at a track and distance that punishes outside posts (mile and one eighth races start super close to the first turn). He was bumped at the start, had to expend a lot of energy to get the lead, and still managed to drive to victory down the stretch. He probably ran an extra 50-60 yards more than Sharp Humor who had the rail and still won by a length and a half. He is fast, he's bred for distance, and he hasn't lost yet.

I also like what's happening with Sweetnorthernsaint (10-1) and Sinister Minister (12-1). Both are coming off huge G1 wins in The Illinois Derby and the Blue Grass respectively. Both have beyers going in the right direction and appear to be in the right part of their cycle. Sinister Minister’s 116 in the Blue Grass is the best beyer in the field. Now, the last horse to win the Derby after winning the Blue Grass was Strike the Gold way back in 1991, and Sinister Minister was a 9-1 shot in the Blue Grass when he just ran away from everyone. I wouldn't be chucking win bets on him if he goes off at less than 10-1 but he’s going to be in the lead, and that gives him a chance to hang in for a piece. Sweetnorthernsaint looks good, he's got 5 rising beyers, he burned it up in the morning, and has Desormeaux as a mount. Kent is a pretty good jockey, but evidently not an early morning guy.

I think, depending on which way the lines move, my final exotic fillers will be Bluegrass Cat (30-1) and Sharp Humor (20-1). Remember that Bluegrass Cat went off as better than a 2-1 favorite in the Blue Grass. While there’s plenty of things not to like about his recent record (he finished 20 lengths behind the Minister in his last race), the race sets up for him if he fires. That's a big "if" based on his last two, and a switch to journeyman mount Ramon Dimenguez is not promising, but someone’s got to be coming from behind and it might as well be him. Sharp Humor is really the enigma of the field for me. I don't know where he'll run or where he'll fit but I think he's got tactical speed and he's gritty (read the comments from his previous races and note use of the word "gamely"). His trainer said that he was "on the muscle" which didn’t mean much to me but followed it up by saying, "He is training about as well as any horse that I have brought into a race."

Well… There's 6 horses out of 20 to focus on. Bet 'em as you see fit and if you cash one on Jazil, I'll be somewhere on the ground floor with the plebes, looking for congratulatory Budweisers.

Posted by Paul Demko at May 4, 2006 3:58 PM | Comments (1)

 

Derby Day: half-baked ruminations on horseracing's finest day

Filed under: Horse Racing

One of the grandest days of the sporting calendar is upon us. On Saturday the 132nd Kentucky Derby will take place at Churchill Downs. Even better for local horseracing junkies, Canterbury Park opens its summer season that same day. In honor of this occassion, over the last couple of days I've conducted an email discussion with two renowned gamblers and jackasses, Jack Sparks and James "Taco" Martin. Hopefully this discussion can continue in the comments section below.

Jack Sparks:

HBO26 is showing "Bikini Chain Gang," I'm listening to "The 5 Levels of Drinking," by Larry Miller, I have 45 minutes until a multi-vendor conference call for my day job, I haven't really slept a lot in the last 4 days, and Demko and I have a half baked idea to discuss the Kentucky Derby in Balls!

This is where you learn the definition of the word "limits."

For instance, there are people who have fallen in love with a horse in the May 6th race who desperately pray that that horse doesn't have a limit of one and 3/16th's miles. The derby is a mile and a quarter, and if your horse is some kind of fucking freak that runs as hard as he can until he craps out 220 yards short of the wire, well that speaks for itself, doesn't it?

For whatever reason, I'm listening to "El Paso" by Marty Robbins, another example of limits. A) He didn't have to shoot that guy over Felina, and B) he didn't have to come back. It's the old trap, going back to the well once too often, getting greedy, thinking that passion and numbers will somehow equal success.

For instance, if Baffert gets 3 of 20 horses into the gate, you figure, "hey, 3 horses out of 20, he's gotta have a shot." This is pure folly. There are two stone cold rules to this chilly slab of pari-mutuel marble: 1) half these horses have no chance at all, and 2) "names is for tombstones baby...take this honky out back and waste him." Last year, a really shitty horse named Giacomo won the Derby because the rest of them all fucked off. Then Giacomo fucked off for the rest of the year. Under the right conditions, Baffert could have fucked up Secretariat.

No, this year's race is remarkable for the number of speed freaks in it who ARE ALSO getting odds to win. Pay attention here...usually in a big race like this there are one or two horses that "set the pace." These horses are beautiful...sprinters...give them a mile on turf and it looks like a fucking picture book on the replay monitor. They get out there, run like a bat out of hell, get caught at the end, and end up 3rd or 4th; if you do a little ciphering and box these guys into your exotic, you can clean up.

But this year's Derby has no less than 7 of these fuckers. I wouldn't bat an eye if a horse fell over dead on the backside next Saturday. They're going to break every record getting to 6 or 7 poles. Then
they're going to start falling off like junebugs flying into a zapper light.

YOUR job is complicated because 1) as God is my witness, one of these nags has a better than even chance of running wire to wire, 2) there are 2 or 3 stalkers in the group, one of whom is probably going to win it, and 3) some crap horse is going to come in between Place and 4th and destroy everybody's superfecta, a grandmother in Bugtussle is going to hit it and buy herself a brunette Jackie-O wig, with accompanying pill box hat.

All that being said, here are the 4 horses that Demko's going to talk me out of 5 minutes before post:

Sweetnorthernsaint--you want a closer that's going to have a mediocre number that can win you some real dough? Here's your guy.

Sinister Minister--crazy speed horse that's going to run 3rd or 4th, throw him in your box.

Lawyer Ron--the only horse in this race that's been forced to do a little running. He's been beating up on the Arkies, but he's still been running.

Brother Derek--the fastest horse in the race...can he go a mile and a quarter?

Finally, watch for the horse that the junkies jump off of ... by this I mean, there's a horse in this race that oughta win it on paper. But there isn't a single one of those people with the notebook the size of a phone directory, sitting in their own filth at a teleracing cubicle who's going to bet on him ... Hello, my name is Barbaro. Never lost, never really been challenged, good pedigree. Sounds beautiful, doesn't it? The television networks will run a story about how he eats too much and likes to take long naps.

Paul Demko:

None of these horses has ever run a 1 1/4 mile race. Look at their race histories. (You might have to register at Daily Racing Form, but it's free and highly worth your while.) In other words, you're attempting to figure out what these beasts might do under circumstances that they've never encountered before. What kind of absurdly foolish task is that?

Furthermore, the field is going to be monstrous, probably 20 horses, the max allowed at Churchill Downs. (The post draw will be televised live at 4 p.m. central on ESPN today.) These horses have never raced in a field this large and never will again. Once more: you're dealing with circumstances that these horses have never previously encountered. I ask again: What kind of absurdly foolish task is that? All kinds of strange shenanigans are likely to ensue. That's how a worthless future tub of Elmer's glue like Giacomo wins the Derby.

I'm a proven loser at this game. I can't pick a third-place finisher in a five-horse field. So the absurdity of me giving anyone advice about anything other than which horse is likely to be shot first is profound. Plus I missed most of the big prep races.

That's why I seek the counsel of people who supposedly know a lot more about this stuff than me. I think Jack has pretty much covered the favorites, so here are a couple of longshot possibilities.

Dan Illman makes a half-hearted case for why Keyed Entry (currently at 30-1 odds) might be worth tossing some bucks at. This horse has the best Beyer speed rating of the longshots and has shown some potential.

I'm more intrigued by Showing Up. He's only run in three races, but won each time. Andrew Beyer makes the case that if Barcley Tagg (trainer of 2003 Derby and Preakness winner Funny Cide) believes this horse belongs in the field then the beast merits watching.

Taco, can we convince you to add some thoughts to this steadily mounting heap of ignorance?

James "Taco" Martin:

I'm going for the money all the way this year baby! I can't imagine any situation where all the money was on two horses like the last few years.

Lots of speculation and hunches this year more then PPR's to go on. Any and all speculation is first subject to post position and IF any horse can get from his or hers gate to the first turn in good shape. Right away that is going to cut the 20 horse field to maybe 8. That's an insanely large field with crazy front running speed. I'd take odds that a pile up may even happen before they hit the first pole.

Everyone is predicting a lightning fast race which makes you think the first few turns are going to be a real mess. I'm looking for a horse that likes to keep pace behind the front runners and has a mighty finish. Some of these horse are going to run themselves out you got to think.

Long race with a lot of untested horse at this distance and so much speed makes me think that the jocks are going to be a even bigger factor then in most stakes races.

Barbaro is the only horse I've noticed that strikes me as it may one day be considered on of those special horses in history.

You can make solid cases for ten or more horses in this field. I will say I do agree with the Keyed Entry tip if those odds hold anywhere close to 30-1. I think you're going to see 7-10 horses going off at 5-1 to 12-1. Lot fewer long shots (25-1+) then last year. Chances are pretty slim that anyone is going to be able to score big on a win ticket but I'm betting all the payoffs should be above average. I watched all the pre-derby tune ups and have purposely not looked at any writers tips in the last two weeks. I'm going to mostly just react to the tote board. I don't want to fall in love with some hag I can't leave at the alter if the right odds show up three minutes to post. Then again I could be totally wrong (again). That's why we go, horse race handicapping keeps us humble.

It's a post time call if there ever was.

T.

Posted by Paul Demko at May 3, 2006 2:35 PM | Comments (24)

 

Foul tip: 41 reminders why the Twins won't contend this year

Filed under: Twins

Last night's 8-2 loss to Seattle pushed the total runs surrendered by the Twins to 41 in the past four games. Their year-to-date runs-allowed presently stand at 156--the most given up by any major league team through May 1. Only Tampa Bay is close, with 154 runs surrendered. Even the lowly Colorado Rockies, who play half their games in the alternate hitting universe that is Coors Field, look stingy by comparison (132 runs allowed through yesterday).

It's not as if the hometown team has been taking its lumps from the Yankees or Red Sox, either. Before encountering the healing balm of Twins pitchers over the weekend, the Detroit Tigers were tied for 10th in the American League in scoring. And the Mariners, before putting up an 8-spot in last night's game, were likewise mired in 10th place in the league in runs scored. Powerhouses they ain't.

And the Twins offense? In all of baseball, only the Kansas City Royals, San Diego Padres, and Florida Marlins have failed to outscore them.

So sure, you can say this team's a lot better than it's looked so far. But when you're 30th of 30 major league teams in runs allowed and you're tied for 27th in runs scored, that's pretty cold comfort.

Posted by Steve Perry at May 2, 2006 12:29 PM | Comments (0)

 

Foul Tip: Wheels-are-off edition

Filed under: Twins

Question: Can you lose a three-game series by a combined score of 33-1 and still call yourself a Major League Baseball team? Answer: No, you can't.

The best thing about the massacre in Detroit this weekend was that Sunday's game was mercifully short, clocking in at two hours, one minute. The rest, Twins fans, is so distressing that it's nearly impossible to fully articulate what trouble this team is in. But let's give it a try anyway.

"I'm not the type to panic so early under normal circumstances," writes reader and my favorite Twins-sounding-board-about-town Mike. "But we've never seen this from a team that we had expectations for. This is not filling a hole or weakness. It is rotten across the board."

And that about sums it up--there is something rotten on this team, and it's really not the talent. The talent, for all intents and purposes, is there on paper. What else is really going on with this club is anyone's guess, but it's getting pretty close to calling this season done already.

Or am I just full of panic? Maybe. The die-hards are saying that the Twins are a different team at the Dome, and tonight's series against Seattle will start bringing all sorts of victories. While that may be true in part, it's more important to note one fact: That's not good enough.

What we have here is the old drastic times, drastic measures scenario. Some suggestions from here on out.

1. Take Radke out of the rotation. I've been tough on Bradke Ball, and his streak of giving up a home run in the first three innings is still alive this season. Unfortunately. I'm starting to feel bad for the guy, and this is no way for a loyal, if middling, pitcher to end his career.

Radke looks plain-old worn-out: His physique belongs to a 14-year-old, and his fastball is popping in the mid-80s. Watching him pitch Friday in Detroit was one of the most embarrassing Twins moments in recent memory. In all honesty, I'm not sure if he can make it through the season at this point. Give the guy a break and skip him once or twice. I hear the team has at least one superstar-in-waiting who could fill his spot.

2. Bench Hunter and Morneau. All apologies to Huey Lewis, but the "heart" of the lineup is barely beating, thanks to these two. Hunter is a really great glove and nothing else--his pathetic showings at the plate obliterate that attribute. More than that, the self-proclaimed team leader has been anything but that this year, hacking away at the plate, producing decent numbers in exactly one game, and mouthing off on every topic under the sun.

Hunter's favorite refrain is that he won't be here next year and that he imagines himself in a major market, maybe even as a Yankee. It's a notion that would be laughable if it didn't also send a wrong message to his teammates: I'm out of here, and you guys aren't worthy.

Nice leadership. I say send the guy to the Bronx--or anywhere, really--while you can still get more than a batboy and a rosin bag for him.

Morneau is clearly not ready to face big-league pitching, and the Twins don't miss him a bit while he's on the bench. In fact, if anything, Michael Cuddyer looks like an upgrade at the plate and a straight-up swap in the field.

Besides, this will give Justin and Torii a chance to further their newly repaired relationship. It seems to be working, since they look like they're on the same page. Unfortunately, that page is the one that reads, "No matter what, just close your eyes and swing."

3. Shake up the rest of the lineup. I'm down on Lew Ford, but I'd take him over Hunter in center right now. And I'd keep Cuddyer at first and bring back Jason Kubel to start in right. While we're at it, might as well get Terry Tiffe some time at the plate and at third, since Phat Tony Batista is hardly a man for the future, as entertaining as he has been at some points during the year.

In short, forget about this season, start getting some experience on guys for next year. Because unless there's some kind of big change and now, I'm afraid that's all this team has got to offer: Next year.

Posted by G.R. Anderson Jr. at May 1, 2006 3:07 PM | Comments (5)

 

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