Open thread: NBA Second Round

• Finally Dallas was able to get over the San Antonio hump. Not that I dislike the Spurs (as a matter of fact Ginobli is one of my favorite players in the NBA), but it's time to see some new blood. Nowitzki's drive and ft at the very end was a great clutch play. Overall, a great series worthy of a final. Maybe Phoenix will find a way to match up against Dallas, but they have had a much tougher road. On the other side, I still like Detroit over Miami. This is based more on a gut feel but I think Miami changed too much since last year while Detroit has remained pretty much the same team with better offense. And, of course, they have home court. Hey, has anyone checked the ESPN lottery thing yet. It's right on their front page.

• draft day trade senarious should be considered sam smithian if they are from new york or california -- i don't care what university writes checks to them.

• Larry Coon is *the* recognized salary cap expert (outside of NBA affiliated folks, of course). I don't know where he got the information about KG's contract and trade bonus, but it is "the goods"..... He posted this the other day in a Lakers forum where they were plotting how to trade for KG. --------------------------------------- KG's salary is $18M before July 1, 2006 and $21M afterward.   In addition, he has a trade bonus of 15% of the remaining value of his contract, which he receives in full. Since his entire 05-06 salary has already been paid, the bonus is $9.9M whether he is traded before or after July 1.   For salary cap computations, a trade bonus is applied, pro rata, to the then-current and remaining guaranteed years of the contract (i.e., not 08-09, since it follows an ETO).  So if he is traded prior to July 1, $3.3 million counts as incoming salary.  If he's traded after July 1, $4.95M counts as incoming salary.  So the total incoming salary would be $21.3M before July 1, and $25.95M after July 1.  The team trading for him has to trade away at least $16.96M before July 1, or $20.68M afterward. Ug, another factor -- a player has the option to waive all or a portion of his bonus in order to make a trade legal.  So a pre-draft-day trade could require as little as $14.32 million outgoing IF KG AGREES TO WAIVE HIS BONUS.  This is one of the factors that KG can use to help steer a trade -- "I'll waive it to go here, but not to go there." Larry Coon University of California The NBA Salary Cap FAQ: <a href="http://members.cox.net/lmcoon/salarycap.htm" rel="nofollow">http://members.cox.net/lmcoon/salarycap.htm</a>

• olowa-ebi , I simply don't see how you can blame Flip - it's not his fault that the Pistons don't have a player on the roster who can guard LeBron. Who does? And LeBron is playing almost incredibly well right now. Actually, the case can be made that it's the Piston's offense which is struggling - which Detroit fans seem to have some experience and tolerance for. Maybe Oprah could do a show titled "When Good Shots Don't Drop". But in the end, like you saw at the end of Game 6, it's my belief that no other team *wants* the title more than Detroit and they will do whatever dirty work it takes to get it done. I'm not worried that Dumars will do the knee-jerk thing (with emphasis on the jerk) and fire Flip. He's got far too good a grasp on the big picture and is a long term guy. If you were truly cynical, you'd be thinking that this series going seven games is being directed by NBA head offices in order to promote LeBron on the national stage.

• I love it Britt. Both you and I are guilty of not tuning into the Detroit - Cleveland series because the outcome was practically pre-determined. Two angles on this series interest me. First, is Flip to blame. His track record is horrible and Detroit will want to blame somebody. You know McHale's at home reading a fishing magazine thinking that he could coach the Detroit team to a championship. Too bad he's also not thinking that he could build this type of team. Second, unlike KG, LeBron is a difference maker for his whole team and a win or a loss. His ability to handle the ball and take the big shot look out of this world when compared to our own superstar. I hope KG's taking notes - yes you should drive to the basket with more authority and further hone your desire to take the big shot (which might be in the second quarter or the fourth quarter). Britt, I know you're not fond of ripping KG, and either am I. But I see what we're missing when I see LeBron's ball handling and ability to consistently hit the big shot.

• I am absolutely loving the play-offs. I have been rooting for the Clippers (gotta love the underdog) since the start and I hope they manage to pull off a win for game 7. The Clips have lived for far too long in the shadow of the Lakers and it's high time they had their day. As far as the Cavs vs. the Pistons . . . GO CAVS! For a long time I was cheering for the Pistons, mainly because of Flip, but after the negative comments that the Pistons (Wallaces)have made following their losses against the Cavs, I personally hope that the Cavs totally slaughter them tonight. I also hope that the Spurs can hang on against the Mavs. I think that no matter which team wins, that is the team that will advance to the Finals, but I personally like the Spurs better (mostly because I like Duncan and Ginobli.) And regardless of who ends up representing the West, I hope the West wins it all! West is Best!!! Lisa P.S. Happy Birthday KG!!

• Wow is Detroit ever in trouble now ? Kobe doesn't think so but LeBron and the Cavs are for real. I still hope Detroit wins it for Flip's sake, but if they don't, what does that say about Flip ? On the other coast, the Dallas-San Antonio series has been worthy of a championship series. Every game but one has been tight and exciting. So has the Clips-Phoenix series. My favorite now is Dallas to win it all.

• I think Miami is going to take the championship. They haven't really played well all year, but I think they are about to come together at the right time. Congrats to Avery Johnson and the Mavs for taking it to the Spurs. I thought the defending champs would have a little more bite left in them but it appears they are about to be dethroned. Avery Johnson's COY award was well deserved.

• I'm afraid all I've got time for are some quick-hit impressions and responses. --I picked the Clips over the Suns because the Clips allowed the fewest fast-break points of any team in the league this year and because of how the Lakers were able to dominate inside much of the time in their series. So what happens but that the Clips get in a track meet and don't bother to box out on the glass. Also, there was the intensity factor, with the Suns having to fight for their lives the previous three games and the Clips needing only to be half-assed to get by the disappointing Nuggets. Cuttino Mobley, who was outstanding versus Denver, is one of the keys to this series; specifically his defense and ability to hit the open perimeter J. Chemistry-wise, I'm also not sure the fact that Maggette is finally in game shape and nearly rust-free is a good thing. When the Clips are in their natural rhythm this year, it is by playing off Brand and Kamen (in that order). Maggette is such a ball hog that Dunleavy's squad forgets about their bread and butter. Another key: pace. Cassell will get churned to jelly in an up-and-down game and Sean Livingston will commit too many turnovers. The Clips should have watched how Phil Jackson controlled the pace. Granted, they don't have an outside threat like Kobe to bail them out when the shot clock is nearly gone, but they usually have good ball movement, and, most importantly, a chance to dominate the offensive glass on missed shots. I think they'll get it together. I still like the Clips in 6. But they might not get it together, in which case the Suns will win in 5 or 6. In other words, I feel like games 2 and 3 generate permanent momentum one way or the other. I must confess I'm not watching the Pistons and Cavs because there is absolutely no mystery in the outcome. The Cavs don't play defense--LeBron is far from the main culprit here, either. Larry Hughes is returning from injury. Eric Snow is old and slow. Nobody has ever accused Ilgauskas, Gooden, Flip Murray or Donyell Marshall of being defensive stalwarts, and against a veteran machine running Flip's offense, the Pistons can pretty much name the score. Any games the Cavs get will be LeBron highlight reels. The Spurs-Mavs is obviously the dandy of the second round. Kudos to Avery Johnson for surprising the Spurs with Harris at the point to start game two. But I don't think that can be a permanent fix--the Spurs are just too good defensively to have Harris running the offense once SA is prepared for him. But that change of pace stole a game and you can't ask any more than that from a coach. The marquee matchup is between two incredibly valuable players, Josh Howard and Manu Ginobelli. Howard has the length and quickness to bother Ginobili and I think if you're a Dallas fan you've got to love that Ginobili and Parker are shooting less than 40 percent from the field combined and don't have a single three. That's means you've sealed the lane (both those guys love to break down defenses on drives; doesn't matter if it's transition or half-court) and outside the arc. Dallas has obviously chosen to dare Tim Duncan to beat them in the low block rather than let Parker and Ginobili take them off the dribble. And given Duncan's foot problems and passing ability, I think it's wise to not always double him. Meanwhile, at the other end, Bowen has done his usual stellar black-and-blue coverage on Nowitzki, but who's going to guard Howard--and, for the first two games anyway, Jerry Stackhouse? Dallas has essentially a 1-1 assist-to-turnover ratio (20/19) through the first two, yet is averaging a fat 99 ppg. That means Howard and Stack and crew are creating for themselves. I'd blame fatigue--the Spurs played three games in five days--but if it continues, Dallas will win this series. As it is, I've seen enough to think the Spurs will require 7 games instead of 6 to close out what feels like a classic. Whether Shaq fouls or gets fouled is the toughest call, bar none, for any NBA official. I think Shaq either fouls or gets fouled at least two out of every three times he attempts a shot, and the refs call maybe a third of the fouls. I happen to think that Shaq is remarkably sanguine about this--he gets hammered but because he's so big, the refs let it go. Yeah, he too commits his fair share, but I sincerely think that, at worst, it all evens out. Even if Richard Jefferson were healthy, I wouldn't change my prediction of Miami beating NJ in this series. Jason Kidd isn't going to hit 80 percent of his perimeter jumpers again, and presumably Pat Riley is going to start living up to his enormous rep and get quality effort out of Antoine Walker, Jason Williams, Posey, and the other vets on this club. All I can say is that this Heat squad is a hell of a lot less fun to watch than last year's, and that Stan Van Gundy got a raw deal. I wish the Nets had enough horses to spring the upset, but I just don't see it.

• Finally, the referees have started to properly call fouls on Shaq. For years he would pivot, elbow his defender in the head and the refs would call a foul on the defender. Or he would turn, lower his shoulder into the defender and again the refs would call a foul on the defender. The announcers were always excusing this be saying that Shaq is soooo hard to officiate. Well that's bs, he was committing offensive fouls and finally they are calling them the right way. Also, he has slowed down so much that he can no longer defend the paint very well as he can't get out of the protected area.

• Lebron James has an unbelievable amount of talent. And he's young. Maybe that is why he doesn't play defense. I really have no idea if Jordan played defense his first few years in the league. But, obviously, if Lebron ever wants to end up even close to as good as Jordan he needs to (eventually) learn to play some defense. I like him though and he's a lot of fun to watch. I only said arrogant because I wonder if (possibly because he's young) he thinks he's too good to worry about defense. I've seen McCants give more effort on defense. Too bad the Clips lost last night. Kaman looked awful in the fourth quarter but it wasn't really his fault. Suns were coming off so many screens that Kaman had to guard Nash. Ouch.

• I don't see any team stopping Detroit. They lost to San Antonio last year because they didn't have home court. They not only have that this year, they are better offensively due to Flip Saunders. I don't think San Antonio will get to the Western conference finals. How absurd by the way is it to have the two best teams in the West meeting in the conference semi-finals instead of the finals ? The NBA has got to fix their seeding system. As far as LeBron, Mitch Albom made an interesting parallel to Jordan yesterday on ESPN's Sports Reporters. Remember how Jordan had to pay his dues by getting beat up by the Bad Boys of Detroit. The same with LeBron. Sure, Cleveland will get walloped this year and maybe next but each time LeBron will learn and become better just like Michael did. The scary thing is, that at 21, LeBron is way ahead of where Jordan was as a player at that age. Whether he'll be as good a player as Jordan remains to be seen and depends on a lot of factors, but the potential is certainly there. Unlike Kobe, who had the benefit of playing with Shaq pretty much once he got to the NBA, James has had to carry his team from the get go. I think that will give him a huge edge eventually as a player. It remains to be seen if Kobe can actually do the same.

• Okay, I've finally recovered from my Pacers dropping Game Six to the Nets. I was really looking forward to a Miami-Indiana matchup, and I also will cling to the belief that Indy is the ONLY team in the East that is capable of beating the Pistons. But it's over, and I'm done crying. First of all, I think Britt's second round analysis is pretty solid, with the expection being that the Pistons are going to beat the Spurs in seven. Despite a miserable Game 1 for Cleveland (I didn't watch it - Mayday was MUCH more fun), I'm looking forward to watching LeBron take this one head-on. It's a good learning experience for the kid, at the very least. What is HE supposed to do about the fact that he got some calls in that last series, anyway? And Nate, you're the first person I've ever heard use the word arrogant to describe him. Spurs-Mavs sounds like it's a pretty even matchup, but the Clips-Suns series is probably the most compelling to me. I'm hoping Kaman establishes himself as "the man" down low, and you know that both Sam and Steve are going to knock down some big threes in the closing minutes of each game. While the L.A.-only series might have been fun, Kobe's comments after the Raja incident galvanized my feelings that he's a TOTAL prick and I can't cheer for guys like that, no matter how clutch they are.

• the problem with Nash is that he cannot play defense. His defense is worse than Sam Cassell's defense. Granted he nearly makes up for it on the offensive end. But, the MVP award does not go to the best two-way player, it goes to the most valuable player. Using the impossible to actually determine metric of how good would his team be without him, Nash is right up there with Kobe, James, and Dirk. Dirk seems to actually provide a lot of energy on defense this year. He drove to the basket with about 30 seconds left in game 1 and barely missed the layup and didn't get a foul call. If Duncan had made the drive he would have got the call. I hope the Pistons absolutely torch Cleveland and that Lebron averages under 20 points per game. If anything, that will motivate the little arrogant (I don't play defense) guy to actually maximize his talent and take it to the next level and fulfill his potential. Nothing works quite like failure to motivate the best players.

• Hmm...Spurs over the Pistons? I think I'll wait on that one as well. I'm still reeling from the "Duncan is overrated" claim from last week. Sunday's game proves why Duncan is just a shade better than our perennial MVP candidate, KG. You can say what you want about how Duncan handles the refs, but he actually gets calls. You can say what you want about his free throw shooting, but KG isn't that great at the foul line in the fourth quarter. You can say KG never had the talent around him, but this guy won an actual championship with Rasho on his team. Well, okay, he had Parker and Manu as well, but he delivered the goods. Now it's Nash who's undeserving? My goodness, here's a team with zero post presence, because of injuries to Amare and Kurt Thomas, and still they had an excellent record. Anyone who can play with Tim Thomas and still win gets an instant nomination in my book. Methinks you are way too harsh in your judgement of Nash. His team won't win a championship, but who else has done more for his team? All the others mentioned--Kobe, James, Dirk--are pretty deserving as well, but I don't think that diminishes what this guy does night in and out. Despite the inconsistent refereeing, and the obvious King (James) making, these have been compelling basketball games. I'll find it interesting to see how Sam tries to guard Nash, or if they'll put someone else on him to slow him down.

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