September 2006

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Time to size up the Yanks

Filed under: Twins

Baseball Prospectus's Post-Season Odds Report--a computer program that daily chews up all the data from 2006 and runs one million simulations of the remainder of the season--gives the Twins a measly 20 percent shot at winning the division. If that seems smaller than the Twins' one-game deficit would suggest, that's because they've actually got to finish this week one game ahead of the Tigers, since the tie-breaking head-to-head record falls in Detroit's favor. If the Twins do manage to make up that ground, they'll face the A's with homefield advantage in the first round. If they don't, it's the big bad Yankees, with three games out of a possible five played in the Bronx. While that doesn't mean it's time to stop rooting against the Tigers just yet, it does mean that a good hard look at a ferocious Yankees lineup is in order.

Here's the batting order that the Yanks used last night to crush the Orioles:

1. Johnny Damon
2. Derek Jeter
3. Bobby Abreu
4. Alex Rodriguez
5. Jason Giambi
6. Gary Sheffield
7. Hideki Matsui
8. Jorge Posada
9. Robinson Cano

As Aaron Gleeman pointed out this morning, that's "two former MVPs, perhaps the leading candidate to win the award this year, another guy who's finished among the top three vote-getters in three different seasons...eight multi-time All-Stars, and a 23-year-old chasing Joe Mauer for the AL batting title." In other words, a bunch of big-ass bats who could rain homers all over the Twins' little post-season parade.

Luckily for Minnesota, there's an old adage--"pitching and defense win in the post-season"--that turns out to be true, at least statistically. Back to BP.com:

"There are three particular characteristics of teams that win more than their share of post-season games. These characteristics are as follows:

* A power pitching staff, as measured by normalized strikeout rate.
* A good closer, as measured by WXRL.
* A good defense, as measured by FRAA.

Of the dozens of team characteristics that we tested for statistical significance, in terms of their relationship with winning post-season games and series, these were the only three that mattered. Ending the year hot doesn’t make a whit of difference, for example, nor does having a veteran club, or a smallball offense."

That's sabremetrician Nate Silver explaining how he came upon a new stat equation, dubbed "Secret Sauce," that magically quantifies a team's playoff juju.

The good news for Minnesota fans is that Silver pegs the Twins' Secret Sauce score well above the Yankees. In fact, according to this wonderful new math, the Twins' pitchers, closer, and defense are good enough to carry the team past that indomitable Yankees lineup (in four games) and win the World Series.

Of course, that was before Silva's meltdown last night all but booted him from the post-season rotation. And no equation, no matter how advanced, can solve the big question mark inside Radke's shoulder. Which makes Radke's return tonight all that much more important. So watch carefully--you know the Yankees are.

Posted by Chuck Terhark at September 28, 2006 4:00 PM | Comments (1)

 

Clinched

It's official. 2006 is a magical season for the Twins, and here's proof: Tonight, sitting at a bar in Northeast celebrating a softball victory, I looked up at the TV screen just in time to see Torii Hunter stride to the plate with one on in the seventh inning. I turned and said to whoever was close enough to hear, "Callin' it! Number 30, right here." It's the first time I've ever called anything in public, and my timing proved impeccable. Torri did not disappoint.

Hunter's homer is a career high of course, since no Twin but Morneau has reached the mark since 1987. The fact that two Twins have done it this year is icing on a fantastic season.

An inning later, Morneau rediscovered his homerun swing, and an inning after that the Twins officially clinched a playoff berth, thus eliminating the White Sox. They celebrated, of course, with champagne.

Meanwhile, Yankees second baseman Robinson Cano garnered enough at-bats to qualify him for the batting title race, moving him and his .342 average into second place behind Joe Mauer. That means the only statistic Derek Jeter leads his team in now is stolen bases. Despite what a certain Sports Illustrated article would have you believe, he's not even the best shortstop on his team, regardless of whether he wins the AL MVP. As my softball team's pitcher said at the bar tonight just before Joe Nathan scored the final out, "He's definitely the best Yankees captain in all of baseball."

Whatever. Screw the MVP race. Screw the batting race. And screw the Wild Card race, even though it's over and won. There's still a division title out there, and that damn dome would look great with one more banner hanging from its ceiling.

Posted by Chuck Terhark at September 26, 2006 12:25 AM | Comments (1)

 

Holy Sh*t!

Filed under: Twins

Since I had absolutely nothing to do with the production of it, I can say without bias that this week's CP cover package devoted to the mighty Minnesota Twins is fabulous. Steve Perry talks with GM Terry Ryan. G.R. Anderson, Jr. tracks down fanatical fan Thomas Hodne. Britt Robson quizes the brains behind the best scouting system in baseball. And Chuck Terhark recounts the 10 greatest moments of the Twins absurd season. Read it all--and then go buy your playoff tickets.

Posted by Paul Demko at September 20, 2006 11:40 AM | Comments (2)

 

All together now: "MVP! MVP!"

Filed under: Twins

Some Twins notes before the F-Bomb climbs the mound for the first time since Aug. 7 in an effort to complete a three-game sweep of the first-place Oakland A's:

1. Before his big two-run, go-ahead double in the eighth last night, Justin Morneau was a footnote in the ongoing national debate over who deserves the AL MVP. Jeter and Ortiz have been jawing to the press about it, proving once again that nobody on the East Coast pays attention to what's going on in the rest of the country. Luckily, a few sports columnists and most of the 20,000 fans at the game last night know who the real contender is.

2. Speaking of which, it's nice to see the national media finally drooling over the Twins.

3. The Twins now have viable candidates for MVP (Morneau, Santana), Cy Young (Santana), batting champ (Joe Mauer) and Rookie of the Year (Liriano). There's almost no chance that all of those awards will go to a single team--that's never happened and probably never will. Still, think about that for a second.

4. All this MVP talk might be off-point, because, in the words of the great Derek Jeter, the Twins still have something to play for.

I'm eating a Dome Dog for lunch today. How about you?

UPDATE:

Well, this hurts. After cruising for two innings on 28 pitches, something inside Liriano's arm broke. Looks like he's out for the season. More bad news: The Twins dropped the game, and I didn't even get a Dome Dog. (Turns out it was Hormel dollar-dog day, so I went for the cheapies instead of my regular "rally Dome Dog." I take full responsibility for the loss.)

On a brighter note, Garza stepped in for Liriano and pitched the best major league game of his life, giving up just one run in six solid innings and earning a standing ovation as he walked off the field. Time to root against the White Sox.

Posted by Chuck Terhark at September 13, 2006 11:13 AM | Comments (2)

 

Credit that loss to Gardenhire

Filed under: Twins

Carlos Silva pitched his best game of the season tonight. Nearly every pitch was down in the strike zone. He pounded hitters inside early in the count and then proceeded to paint the black on the outside of the plate. When the rare runner reached first base they were immediately erased with a double play ball. The Devil Rays never even sniffed a run. Or a homerun, for that matter--the sinkerball pitcher's notorious Achilles heal this season.

Silva threw a ridiculously efficient 59 pitches through six innings, summoning memories of his phenomenal 74-pitch complete game against the Brewers last year. He seemed to get stronger and more confident as the game wore on, strutting around the mound like a matador. In short, this was the pitcher the Twins had been waiting to see all season--and sorely need for the final month of the playoff chase.

So how does Gardy reward Silva? By yanking him after six innings. What follows? Three pitchers and four runs later the Twins are staring at a 4-2 loss to the lowly Devil Rays on a night when they could have moved to within a tantalizing three games of the Detroit Tigers.

It's not like the bullpen needed the work. Granted the Twins got back-to-back phenomenal performances from Boof Bonser and Johan Santana in the prior two starts, giving the relievers some rest. But the team's heading into a crucial four-game series against the best team in the American League, with three largely untested pitchers (Scott Baker, Matt Garza, and Bonser) slated to start. Given the Twins anemic hitting of late, if they're going to have success against the Tigers the bullpen will be indispensable.

Worst of all Gardy's quick hook potentially undermines the confidence that Silva displayed tonight. Let's hope it's not so.

Posted by Paul Demko at September 6, 2006 9:03 PM | Comments (13)

 

Marching into the Bronx (cue "Taps")

Filed under: Twins

The bad news: After surging into first place in the Wild Card standings, the Twins inexplicably dropped two in a row to the Royals. I know, I know, the Royals aren't that bad, but the Twins were playing at being playoff contenders, and had baseball's best home record to boot. Meanwhile, the White Sox kept winning, effectively reclaiming a Wild Card lead that they aren't likely to lose anytime soon, especially considering they're taking on the lowly Royals now. Mean-meanwhile, the Twins are headed to Yankee Stadium for three games with a pitching rotation--"Homer" Silva and the Shaky Rookies-- that's surely got the Bombers itchin' to swing. Oh yeah, and Luis Castillo sprained his ankle, Radke's bum shoulder will force him to miss a start this weekend, and Joe Mauer is slumping.

The good news: There is none. Unless you count the fact the Liriano's season probably isn't completely over. Or the fact that the Twins acquired the aging right-handed slugger Phil Nevin to hit in the DH spot. Does that count as a silver lining?

More gloom and doom (and optimism, too) welcome in the comments.

Posted by Chuck Terhark at September 1, 2006 5:17 PM | Comments (1)

 

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