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The Three-Pointer: The Breaking Point

Filed under: Timberwolves

Note: I'm going to tape the Dallas game tonight while I check out Bobby Previte at the Walker; and don't imagine I'll be posting a trey on Super Bowl Sunday. So, please use this thread for your comments on the Mavericks game as well as the loss to the Hornets.
--Britt

1. James and Foye and Jaric, oh my
The statute of limitations on patience with point guard Mike James finally seems to have run out. The Wolves broadcasting team of Jim Petersen and Tom Hanneman, Fox Sports analyst Mike McConnell, me, you, and everyone else watching Chris Paul immediately settle into a comfort zone against James's maddeningly tepid play last night in the Wolves 83-90 loss to the Hornets were all thinking the same thing: Time to sit this joker down. J-Pete put a good spin on it, noting that James coming off the bench would then at least be playing against opposing scrubs like Jannero Pargo rather than an obviously superior stud like Paul. And McConnell chimed in after the game that he saw James light up the scoreboard plenty of times in Toronto last year and wonders if he might be the microwave off the pine rather than force feed him as a playmaker any more.

Me, I just think it is time to alter this excruciating, dysfunctional pattern. Maybe that means telling James he has ten games of crunchtime ball to prove he belongs on the court, then playing him in the 4th quarter either beside or instead of Randy Foye, just to see if a little infusion of faith will give him a pulse. Or maybe you tell James that Troy Hudson has been keeping his seat warm at the far far end of the bench, and that is where he will stay for awhile as Huddy and Foye handle the point; see if a little shock treatment can jumpstart his intensity.

And yes, it has come to that. James was back-peddling into his own players as Paul dribbled down the floor on the break, keeping almost a perfect 8-10 foot distance right through to the time Paul pulled up for a jumper or just slowed the pace and leisurely surveyed the floor with plenty of time left on the shot clock. For the second game in a row, the Wolves' lack of defensive pressure enabled an opponent to play turnover-free ball for the entire first quarter while running up a lead that would set the tone for the rest of the game. That defensive lethargy starts with James, the team's most consistent weak link on D.

At the other end of the court, James didn't have the luxury of his teammates bailing him out this time. Kevin Garnett maintained the funk that has enveloped him since the Phoenix extravaganza. He got shoved around by David West and bodied up neatly by defensive stalwart Tyson Chandler and was incredibly ineffective for a guy who finished with 17 points on 8-16 FG. Ricky Davis almost single-handedly kept the Wolves close in the first stanza, hitting five of his first seven shots. Unfortunately his last field goal of the game occurred with 2:41 to play in the first, as he clanked his final eight missives. But even a chronic Davis critic like me could see he was the Wolves' best player last night, with 6 assists that should have been 10 if any of his mates could convert an open shot, and better than average defense to boot.

But the problem is that Minnesota relies on KG or Davis to power their offense, especially in the half-court sets. That works okay with Blount and Hassell, both of whom are reliable open jump-shooters (though Hassell suffered through an abysmal 0-7 FG night and, like KG, was not his usual snuff-out self on defense). But how many times are we going to swing the ball to Mike James for a wide open trey and watch him miss it? And miss it badly: not a rattled in-and-out, but a big boing off the back iron, or a skim of the rim.

Not that Randy Foye has been making the decision any easier in recent weeks with his horrible, selfish shot-selection, his lack of judgment on proactive passes (instead of the simple, around-the-horn type), his dribbling woes, especially against traps, and his hot-and-cold defense. Every single one of those flaws can be chalked up to inexperience, of course, and should be. You can't blame Foye for being merely a solid rookie with teasing star potential rather than a precocious gem who makes the transition from college swingman to pro point without a ruffle or a hitch. I stopped hollaring so much about Foye's gaping weaknesses when it became clear that the Wolves' braintrust were feverishly grooming their next resort rather than working from a position of strength in getting the rook loads of point guard minutes.

If Kevin McHale really thinks this team can be markedly better than .500 with an outlandish underachiever as the key free agent signing and an on-the-job rook running the offense on the heels of a 33-49 season, Dwane Casey and now Randy Wittman probably have some deprogramming to do. Wittman got so desperate last night that he shelved both James and Foye for a brief stint in the fourth period and played Marko Jaric at the point. At first blush it was a good instinct, as Jaric was second only to Davis in value to the squad, and was pushing the offense in transition in a manner that James either has forgotten or never knew, and with fewer turnovers than Foye customarily musters. But on second blush, the matchup was Chris Paul, who just happens to be the dude that exposed Marko's cobweb feet and fragile ego in a memorably disastrous game for Jaric in this very same Oklahoma City building last season. It opened up the first tiny sliver on the eggshell of Jaric's self-regard, and before long Casey was trying to make an omelet with Anthony Carter, Marcus Banks, and a perpetually distraught Marko Jaric. This time, the Jaric as point guard experiment lasted 94 seconds, long enough for Paul to hit a jumper and drawing a foul on Blount while driving the lane.

2. And the Paint was as Bad as the Point
New Orleans dominated scoring in the paint, including ridiculous margins of 18-4 in the first period and 30-8 at halftime (the final tote was 44-24). Wittman obviously decided that Mark Madsen wasn't a good matchup with either Chandler or West, and their mutual absence from the game for the bulk of his 6:50 is probably the only reason MadDog was the only Wolves big who posted a plus number (specifically, +2) for the game. Still, would it have hurt to sit Blount for awhile in the second half, when he played all but 2 and a half minutes, and seen if that big pale caboose could have bothered Chandler enough so that he didn't shoot 8-9 from the field and grab 18 rebounds?

This was one of those classic games that divide the pro-Blount folks from the anti-Blount crew. Clearly, he was the Wolves' best option in the 3rd quarter, feasting on a diet of choice (mostly) Davis feeds for five straight buckets in ringing up more than half of Minnesota's 18 points in the period. But Chandler wasn't too shabby himself, getting six points, seven boards (to Blount's 2) and a pair of blocks. Now, Garnett owns some of those numbers, as he and Blount were going back and forth with Chandler and West all night. But the bottom line is that the Wolves were outscored and outrebounded in the 3rd period, and again provoked zero Hornets turnovers on D. Even Wittman acknowledged after the game that Blount and the Wolves got a little too enamored with Blount's jumper.

And since I've given Petersen credit for correctly presaging what has been a breakout season for Blount (besides his contract year a couple seasons back, anyway), it's time to ladle grief on the tail end of his analysis of the Celtics trade last night, when he said that Blount was worth the first-round pick the Wolves sacrificed in the deal. Really? Put it this way: Would you have swapped Blount for Rashad McCants at the end of last season? How about Blount for Randy Foye? And remember, you are paying Blount $8 million a year for the three seasons when you are grooming that rookie at pennies on the dollar. Consider that Blount is a -60 in the plus/minus totals, a worse mark than anyone but James and Jaric on the squad (admittedly skewed by the Phoenix blowout). Yes, Blount is the only seven-footer on the roster besides KG, and that would have to be addressed if he were not around. But even with him here, having a stolid interior banger ranks behind only a quality point guard on the list of needs for this ballclub, as Madsen's value despite submediocre talent attests. Has Mark Blount been a pleasant surprise for this team, bringing a great work ethic and an overall sense of professionalism in the locker room and on the court? Does he get along famously with KG? Yes and yes. Would I trade him back to the Celtics right now for Michael Olowokandi and that first-round pick? It's a close call only because of the Kandi Man's baggage and the fact that the pick won't be exercised until the team forks one over to the Clippers. But if the pick was for this off-season? I'd do that deal in a heartbeat.

3. Quick hits
Did anyone else notice in the second period when KG came down on the break and floated up a decent alley-oop lob to McCants barrelling down the other lane? Last year, I'm pretty sure Rashad skies for that ball and slams it home. This year, not even close. Hope it is rehab and not the new status quo.

One of many places where Flip Saunders is sorely missed on this team: The routine but rapid outlet pass. At least twice last night the Wolves got burned trying to deliver a long, half-court outlet only to serve up an easy steal. Instead of Davis quitting on defense and breaking for the hoop, how about if he locks down his man a titch longer, and receives the outlet on the wing just this side of the half-court line? (And that's not a knock on Ricky's D last night; as I mentioned, he was Minnesota's best player.)

Last but certainly not least, Wolves stat guru Paul Swanson periodically sends interesting tidbits to make us look smart. Last night's dope was particularly good, taking in the team's abysmal mark against sub-.500 opponents and upset proclivity against the quality teams, KG's dominance on the roster, and, most edifying for me, quarter-by-quarter shooting percentages.

Here you go:

Minnesota Timberwolves
Last 5 vs. sub-.500 Opponents:
Jan. 17 Atlanta L 88-105
Jan. 24 @ Portland L 98-101
Jan. 26 @ Seattle L100-102
Jan. 31 Sacramento L 98-100
Feb. 2 @ Okla.City L 83- 90

Note: Minnesota has won 10 of its last 15 against teams with .500+ records at tipoff, beginning with the Dec. 6 victory against Houston. On the season, the Wolves are 8-11 against sub-.500 teams, 14-13 vs. clubs with winning marks...

- - - -

Kevin Garnett is nine assists short of leading the Timberwolves in all five PARBS categories (points, assists, rebounds, blocks and steals). Ricky Davis currently has 201 assists on the season (4.5 apg) to Garnett's 192 (4.3). He is one of only five players in NBA/ABA history to accomplish that feat over a full season, having done so in 2002-03...

http://www.nbcsports.com/nba/957583/detail.html

- - - -

Shooting Percentage by Quarter, 2006-07:
(through Feb. 2)

Player 1stQ 2ndQ 3rdQ 4thQ
F--Hassell... 53.8% 62.0% 45.7% 58.8%
F--Garnett... 49.8% 46.9% 48.2% 45.7%
C--Blount.... 54.4% 53.6% 53.8% 49.3%
G--Davis..... 46.3% 50.0% 49.4% 39.7%
G--James..... 46.3% 38.7% 45.8% 33.8%
Foye...... 39.5% 36.6% 40.4% 46.1%
Jaric..... 37.5% 51.9% 31.3% 43.8%
Smith..... 57.7% 55.5% 62.5% 48.5%

Posted by Britt Robson at February 3, 2007 1:19 PM

« The Three-Pointer: Wolves as Dogs | Main | The Three-Pointer: 77-105 »

Comments

Wow. That is really an interesting stat about the Wolves record against sub .500 teams. I guess they think the can just coast against the bad teams. Hmmm......

Britt, your comment about needing a big banger inside and a point guard is right on. Does it not seem that this point has been brought up every year for the past 10 years by fans and media alike. "If we only had a big banger to help KG"..."If we only had a defensive minded point who could occasionally hit the 3"

This just points out another failure of the McHale administration. Does it seem like the team is finally just giving in knowing that they are not going anywhere this season??

I have a feeling that we'll win at Dallas tonight by 10. Just to make all of us fans even more insane.

Posted by: andy at February 3, 2007 5:19 PM

I think we can dissect individual players and player needs and coaches until we're all blue in the face from frustration.

But ultimately, it seems to me that what's missing (and has been since Flip was sacrificed, back when we were a playoff team) is a style of play. Determine a style (based on a coaching philosophy or built around a key player or two) and find players who can play that style, rather than getting the "best available choice" and then forcing them to play a different kind of game, or a position they're not accustomed to.

Yes, it may mean overhauling the team. But what have we had the past few years but a trainwreck of mediocrity, inconsistency (yes, that word), a few overpaid hacks who can only perform when the game is a blowout, a few head cases, and a team without the guts to ride out the rough spots (i.e., coming out flat at in the first quarter or after halftime, or beating teams they're "supposed" to beat).

Phoenix has a style. Dallas has a style. San Antonio has a style. Detroit has (or had?) a style. Their coaches (and GMs) have a vision, their players understand it and play to it, other teams have to adjust to it. Otherwise, we're continually rejiggering players, throwing them together and then wondering why they can't play well together. Or rolling the dice on a one-season miracle via high-priced veterans.

Granted, Flip's style didn't get us far in the playoffs. But we were a top-notch team. Every game I watched in those days, I expected us to win. Now I watch and am not surprised when we lose. This, with one of the top five players in the league.

Is it about the players? Or is it the style of play?

Posted by: el machino at February 3, 2007 11:19 PM

Here's a solution to the Wolves rebounding woes: box out! Half of Chandler's points in that game were on put back dunks. Ricky is gone at the release of the shot, KG relies on out jumping his man, and Blount just stands around. The only people I see consistantly boxing out their man are Madsen and Hassell. I can't tell you how many times this season that I've seen the opposing team get 2nd chance points because the Wolves don't box out as a team.

Another thing Jim Peterson has been pleading for years of KG is for him to use the jump hook. It is virtually unblockable and a high percentage shot, but instead he spins outside and shoots a fall away jumper. I love KG's game as much as anyone and he's an incredible jump shooter for his size, but he rarely gets to the rim in the Wolves offensive sets. He's too athletic to not score closer to the basket. Watch the next game and see how many dunks he gets. Hassell's the only guy willing to throw and alley-oop and I think it could be there more. He should be trying to throw that thing down any chance he gets and go to the line. Speaking of which, KG gets to the line far less than any other star player in the league. The other guys are on the floor shoulder some of the blame on where they get him the ball, but really I wish he'd play inside more. Love ya, KG.

One thought on Mike James. He's not that great and I he benefited from his contract/career year. However, had the Wolves not signed him, they would have blown that money on Marcus Banks. He was somewhat of a surprise in his play last year with the Wolves, but still had glaring deficiencies. Hindsight is 20/20. Banks is now the 3rd point guard on arguabley the best team in the league. What would Wolves fans be saying right now if Banks was being paid what James is and playing the same? They'd yank him in a heartbeat for Foye. T-Hud and Jaric would be playing more. My point is that despite the fact that James is not playing up to his contract, I'd still take him over Banks for the same money. They were going to spend the money anyways, so I'd rather have a veteran.

Posted by: Sid at February 4, 2007 1:10 PM

I'm still rooting for the long losing streak to wake up the franchise. I don't really find last night's near victory even mildly encouraging. We need to to say hello to the lottery. Let's keep that top 10 pick and make a few trades.

KG needs to have some tendinitis problems that require maybe a 15 game absence.

Posted by: Nate at February 4, 2007 2:08 PM

I think the twolves winning games against over 500 teams has more to do with the other teams playing down to the twolves rather than the wolves getting up.
Or KG has preemptively followed nate's advice and is beginning to throw games.

Posted by: midlife crisis at February 5, 2007 6:47 AM

This roster can't establish an identity because its unable to do anything well enough. What would the identity be?

We can't rebound and don't get to the foul line, so a grind-it-out style is out. We don't shoot well enough from the perimeter or have good enough ball handlers to fun-n-gun ala Phoenix. And we don't play consistant enough on D to merit a defensive identity.

I'm still waiting to see what this "flow" offense we've heard so much about actually is. Currently the ball movement is too poor in half court sets to claim its a team that finds open jumpers on a regular basis.

Blount may be the exception on that one, but can we honostly conclude his smooth jumpers offset the fact that he's a bad rebounder for his size? Again, nice season, great professional, but he is what he is, and that's unfortunately not what this team needs.

KG says he wants more vets, but it's becoming clear this club would be better off starting McCants and Foye and seeing if they are good enough scorers to keep the Wolves in games in the future.

Posted by: Mike at February 5, 2007 11:52 AM

What is so infuriating about the Wolve's record against winning vs. losing teams is that it validates McHales contention that this team is underachieving and inconsistent. The changing of the guard from Casey to Wittman might not transform this team into a more reliable playoff contender, but it does demonstrate the defects of this team that McHale was attempting to address.

I am all in favor of scrapping this season, and working the way back toward the lower 10 teams so we can salvage one more first round pick to go with a slowly declining KG in the latter half of his career. The only thing I worry about is the identity that this team so desparately needs to define for itself. If the Wolves took this course, it would mean the second year in a row the Wolves conspired to lose for the prize of keeping a draft pick for one more year before losing it to the Clippers.

With this in mind, I think Wittman should pursue a course that is thinking toward the future, while still attempting to muster all he can out of the apparent talent this team sometimes demonstrates and hope to catch a winning wave to the playoffs off--compliments of a new rotation.

1.) KG playing time needs to be limited to no more than 36 minutes a game. This will give KG some rest and also preserve him for fourth quarter heroics. He should sit down the last three minutes of the 1rst quarter and three more minutes in the second. And also the last three minutes of the third and the first three minutes of the fourth.

2) Start Foye and bring James and/or Thud off the bench.

3) Slowly work McCants into the rotation.

4) Begin a conversation with McHale and Taylor about addressing the teams needs for a point guard and the surplus of Swingmen and overpaid point guards. Talks need to begin behind the scenes for getting a point guard and a defensive and rebounding center/power forward. A trade has to happen before the draft this summer, and, if the opportunity presents itself - but only if it is a really good opportunity - before the trading deadline this season. McCants, Jaric, Blount, Smith, Davis, Thud, James, Hassell and Davis should all be strongly considered for trades to get a point guard and inside presence in return. We should give up 2-3 of these players for these needs. A first round draft pick should be one commodity sought after in this trade. Thus, all players should get minutes according to match-ups in their favor to showcase their abilities and talents that other teams may seek. Blount, Hassell, and Davis have already demonstrated their worth and thus should have their minutes reduced to give the other players more time to show what they might contribute to the Wolves or another team.

These changes should begin immediately, but with the intention of improving the team this year, if possible. I still have illusions that there is untapped talent and potential on this team. Wittman should use the opportunity of fiddling with the rotation to discover if that talent really is there and if not, well, then they keep losing and fall back into a first round draft pick.

One final note (since I've been abscent for a while in protest of my favorite writers firing from city pages --did anyone notice?) In regards to a rebounding identity. J-Pete once made an interesting comment about the NBA's leading rebounder during a broadcast this year. He said, KG does not box-out. He gets rebounds solely on talent and a knack for getting to the ball. He is all finesse on the rebounding end and not brute force. He also said that Mchale, Wittman and others on the staff had made many attempts to improve KG in this area, because he cannot rely on his talent and quickness to the ball forever. However, KG still has not learned this basic skill of boxing out his opposing player when the ball goes up toward the glass.

Posted by: Andy B at February 5, 2007 3:19 PM

Craig Smith is a great rebounder. He boxes out, he's tough to get around, he has some hops, and he is always moving. Everyone is clamoring for a banger when we already have one on our bench, and one on the inactive list (I miss you EG). I won't get into the Eddie situation but I will say I think Craig Smith aka Cookie Monster deserves more time on the court. I think overall he is a better fit for this team then Sweet J Blount. By tying together a string of hot shooting games, Blount almost got me to jump on the bandwagon but he remains the same player I disliked watching for so long because he is an attrotious rebounder and is slow to rotate on defense. Smith has much to learn in the league but why not start him learning now? Regardless of whether you think this team is a 38 or 45 win team we should be looking to get Foye, McCants, Smith, and even Wright on the court. Heck, I'd think about making sure to get that lineup on the court with KG for five minutes a night in the second quarter. Why not? There's no way we're climbing above a number 7 seed for the playoffs so why not get our younguns some burn.

Posted by: Moroni at February 5, 2007 3:52 PM

Just got my latest issue of "WolvesWire" previewing the Rockets game tonight and this statement jumped out at me:

"Despite tough losses in Okalahoma City and Dallas, the Wolves are showing more consistent effort since Randy Wittman took over head coaching duties."

Huh? Does the poor staff person who writes this stuff bother to watch the games or is the marketing department in as much denial regarding the team's recent performances as bad as McHale and Taylor seem to be on on the potential of this season's roster?

Posted by: Mark at February 5, 2007 5:01 PM

Andy B.

Great comments on the Wolves. I think the only untouchables on this roster are Foye and KG (unless it's for a big package of players/draft picks from Chicago)

Thoughts on a KG trade? Or am I just wasting my time even thinking about it?

WTF? Where's Jim Walsh???

Anyone?

That would be a crime if they fired him!

Damn corporate media.

Sorry to get off track but Walsh is a huge Twolves fan. At least he was....

Posted by: andy at February 5, 2007 5:30 PM

AndyB - Who's your favorite staff writer that was given the sack at the CP? I must assume it's not Britt - but I've been out of town for a couple of weeks now. Too busy to even catch much of the Wolves/Mavericks tilt, as broadcast by the Dallas Fox Sports channel.

It was interesting to hear them opine that Avery was "dictating" a small lineup to the Wolves in the closing seconds. Ah well, it ended up closer than I thought it would be going in. Mark Cuban looked happy with the "W", though, as he passed through the post-game broadcast booth.

Posted by: levi at February 5, 2007 8:45 PM

I think the first half of this Rockets game should just about kill fan interest on TV for a while. Yuck. So bad that Thud STARTS the second half after being a DNP-CD for the entire Wittman era! It's about time that Davis and James finally got the bench.

Posted by: Timby at February 5, 2007 9:03 PM

P.S. Wittman looks pretty desperate, with the Wolves down by almost 30 going into the 4th qtr., not giving KG the rest of the night off and begging the boys, every last one of them to "not quit on him." At some point you have to cut your losses, and get Foye and Smith the minutes they need to improve. Thankfully the Wolves vindicated his faith and brought the Wolves back... oh wait, they're still down 29...and McGrady's throwing anything he wants in the bucket, while finding time to help out the mascot distribute tiny basketballs.

Posted by: Timby at February 5, 2007 9:36 PM

I feel for Wittman. But if he had any sense, he would've avoided that sorry deer-in-the-headlights look in the post-game interview, that confused "How many games is this, eight?" schtick, and just come out with it. Is he really surprised at this circus, given that he was an assistant coach? He eventually got to it: "This crap is going to stop."

I think we should throw out any semblance of a playbook and just run-and-gun. We're turning the ball over by the fistful anyway. We can't run plays. We can't play tough D. We have no inside game. So, let it rip. We have guys that apparently thrive on chaos because they sure do create it. That way, we can get what little we can out of Hudson. Foye's rookie mistakes won't matter. McCants can work his way back into playing shape. Blount can hang out on the wing. Garnett can pad his stats. Who cares if we lose by 8 or 28? Everybody will get some action because guys will be winded. We just may surprise some teams, and if not, well, we're lottery bound anyway.

By the way, why is it taking so long to either disepnse of or suit up Eddie Griffin for one last fling? And just what does Jim Stack do anyway to deserve a paycheck?

P.S. Long live Jim Walsh.

Posted by: el machino at February 5, 2007 11:19 PM

Unless the team is throwing the games (and this last one looked like it), you would have to think McHale gets canned. Of all the moves, this change to Wittman ends up pointing exactly at the one who assembled the roster.
After the last couple weeks, I'm on the trade KG bandwagon. If I can't stand to watch the wolves anymore, it's not like I'll be seeing KGs brilliance. May as well board it up for a few years until next years rookies start to gel.
By the way, Smith is not the power forward answer. He's nice in the post, but he's a bit slow and short on defense. As much as we clamor for him to start, let's remember that he'd be a bench player on a good team.

Posted by: midlife crisis at February 5, 2007 11:28 PM

I never saw Randy Foye play at Villanova... but I will tell you this... I don't care that he's been making mistakes... Randy Foye is the kind of player that can not be mechanically told what to do on the offensive end.. the coaching staff for the Timberwolves is stifling his tools... this entire situation is a shame.. I truly believe that if Foye begins starting and is given some serious FG attempts, we will start seeing this teasing brilliance turn into consistent brilliance..

Posted by: Peter at February 12, 2007 4:11 AM

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