June 10, 2007 - June 16, 2007

The Bad News About the Best Pitcher in Baseball

Filed under: Twins

So I'm going to rain on the parade again...

I don't have to tell you to check out G.R. Anderson's Jr., esq., superior article on Johan Santana. If you venture this way for some opinion about the noble sport, well, then you no doubt check out the longer, well-written and researched stories in this paper, too. At least I hope you do.

But I have to say that G.R.'s piece left me feeling kinda sad, especially after last-evening's troubling victory. Troubling? Yes, troubling. You might ask: how could an awesome comeback against a very-good Braves team, where the Twins flailed against their ace, went down by two runs, and then popped back in the ninth to win it 3-2 possibly trouble you?

Well, that game troubles me because it affects the subject of the aforementioned article. G.R. asks this question to open the story: "Does he (Johan) have a third Cy Young up his sleeve?"

Personally, I don't think he does. Of course, I'm about to tell you why. The reason is because Johan Santana--whom G.R. rightly posits is the best pitcher in baseball, a rarity, a once-in-a-generation hurler--won't win the Cy Young because the Cy Young is all about looking at a pitcher's statistics, determining who is the cream of the crop, and then weighing his won-lost record so heavily that that's what cops the prize. And I'm not certain our man is going to win twelve of his next twenty starts. Which is what he needs to win that coveted award.

Let's suppose Santana has his typical year--pretty good at the beginning, and then amazing in the second half. I don't say that it could happen, I'm sincerely believing that this will happen. Santana is showing no signs that he's not going to blast through this year like he has in the past. The guy's remarkably consistent, and even this year, he's looking good. Check out these stats (after fourteen starts):

In 04, Johan was 4-4 with a 4.84 ERA.
05, our ace was 7-2 with a 3.32 ERA.
06, 6-4 with a 2.99 ERA.
And this year, 6-6 with a 3.19 ERA.

What's amazing to me about those numbers is that in 05, the year he should have won his second Cy Young, he had the best won-lost record (at this point) in this span. So this year, Mr. Johan Santana, with his 6-6 won-lost record, his 3.19 ERA, his 105 K's (don't know if that's before or after last evening's contest) might just watch his next Cy young go 'poof', all because of his record. The guy's but one loss away from matching the most losses in a seaon... which was 16-7 in 2005, the year he lost out to Bartolo Colon, who didn't deserve the award. I mean, there's no comparison: Colon won more games than Santana. But Santana had a better ERA, more strikeouts, same number of walks, more innings pitched, better opponent batting average and OBP, and so on and so on. He beat or tied Colon in every category... except wins. Which is really out of the pitcher's hands.

Johan has roughly twenty starts left to the season. If history is our guide, he'll need to win at least twelve of those to win the Cy--no starting pitcher in the American League has won a Cy Young with less than eighteen victories (not including the strike-shortened 1994 campaign). Ever.

Santana's going to have another marvelous season to be sure, but grabbing twelve wins out of the next twenty starts is not something he controls entirely. The Twins bats have as much to do with his next Cy. Can they help him win his third?

Posted by Peter Schilling Jr. at June 15, 2007 10:26 AM | Comments (0)

All the Young Dudes

Filed under: MLB

With garbage blowing across the infield and seagulls moseying between first and home, the Detroit Tigers Justin Verlander threw a no-hitter against the Milwaukee Brewers. It was the first no-no for the Bengals since Jack Morris tossed one in their World Championship season of 1984. A career-high twelve strikeouts for the lad, who is racing through his second season as if ignorant of something called the sophomore jinx.

You might ask, why the living mother of Jesus should I care? Well, I bring this up because, first of all, I'm still a Tigers fan, transplanted from the great, though endlessly cloudy, state of Michigan. But I raise the issue to reiterate what I still consider is folly on the part of the Twins: keeping Garza in the minors to save money in the year 2010. Look at the Tigers: instead of allowing Verlander to languish in the minors, thus saving the team many dollars in arbitration and free-agent money, well, Detroit brought him up quickly, in the hopes of, what? Oh, make it to the World Series (that old thing). Dude started in the minors the same year as our own young fresh fellow, Matt Garza, but Mr. Verlander already has one full, rookie-of-the-year season and a no-hitter under his belt.

I do know that Garza's no Verlander. But as I mentioned before, the guy (Garza, that is) would be better on the mound--the Metrodome mound, that is--than Ortiz, Silva, or Ponson (of the Aruban I think we're all on the same page). Even if the youth falters, its part of his continued development. When Ortiz flutters and fails, well, that's him at the end of his rope.

If the Twins are going to penny-pinch forever, even after the new digs are built, well, I for one feel cheated. Get the kids up here, and do it quickly. Even if the season's a bust. Maybe next year we'll be just that good. If Garza's so great he'll be draining Pohlad's bank account, well, as one notable put it, that's great.

Anyway, tonight one of our pups worked wonders (and yes, I consider the Twins my team). Mr. Kevin Slowey, fresh from the minors, working his third start against the Atlanta Braves. Six innings, seven scattered hits, two earned runs, and the 'W'. Uh, one measly strikeout. Whatever. We'll take it. But I'd still love a four man rotation that begins with Santana, works through Boof and Slowey, and closes with Garza. Might be interesting, it might.

Oh, and check out Kevin Slowey's photo at ESPN. Mysterious, contemplative, but can he see into the future?!?

Posted by Peter Schilling Jr. at June 12, 2007 10:19 PM | Comments (0)

Minnesota Thunder opens U.S. Open Cup campaign

Filed under: Soccer

The Minnesota Thunder took some more lumps over the weekend. They squeezed out a nil-nil draw on Saturday night at the California Victory, but then were soundly dispatched by the Vancouver Whitecaps last night. Only a heroic performance from goalkeeper Nic Platter kept the game close. The team has now dropped to a dismal 1-6-4.

The sole bright side for the squad is that eight of the first eleven games have been played on the road. In fact their road record is a semi-respectable 1-3-4, good enough for seven points. That's actually equal to the team's total road points for all of last season. The problem is that the Thunder have dropped all three contests at home. If the 2007 campaign isn't going to be a complete debacle they'll have to drastically improve their home form.

The team will get their first shot at righting the ship tomorrow night at The Jimmy when they take on the El Paso Indios USA in the first round of the U.S. Open Cup. This 94-year-old tournament is open to pretty much any pro or semi-pro club in the country. Two years ago the Thunder made a thrilling run to the semifinals, knocking off three MLS teams by a rather astounding combined score of 13-6.

Last year, by contrast, the Thunder crapped out in the first round, losing to the lowly Des Moines Menace despite playing much of the game with a man advantage. I'd just returned from the World Cup in Germany. Watching that pathetic Open Cup game in a nearly empty stadium was more depressing than witnessing the U.S. flail miserably on the world stage. It was just godawful.

Following tomorrow night's date with El Paso, the Thunder will have five straight regular season home matches. Hopefully it's not too late to salvage the season.

After the Open Cup match folks will be gathering to watch the U.S.-El Salvador Gold Cup game at the Sweetwater on tape delay. Viewing should commence about 9:30. The U.S. has already secured passage to the quarterfinals of the CONCACAF championship with wins over Trinidad & Tobago and Guatemala. A tie or a victory tomorrow night will guarantee that they win their group.

Mexico, meanwhile, is hilariously close to not making it out of the group stage. After getting humiliated by Honduras, they'll need a result against Panama on Wednesday.

Posted by Paul Demko at June 11, 2007 3:54 PM | Comments (2)

Tough Cookies

Filed under: Twins

I just don't fucking get it. It's one thing for the Twins to lose to the Angels and the A's in California; it's another thing altogether for them to lose to the Washington Nationals, the worst team in the National League (and probably both leagues, if we're honest) at home. At home!

Saturday, as you should be pretty damned well aware of now, they lost in monumental fashion. Oh, it was only 3-1. We had but a pair of hits. Great pitchers duel, yes? Er, no.

In what appeared to be a not-so-daring act of capitulation, the Nats threw former Twins farmhand Levale Speigner on the mound against Johan Santana. Speigner who? Why, this youth was left unprotected in the Rule 5 draft by the Twins, was plucked by the D.C. crew, and, thanks to MLB rules, had to be on the Nationals major league roster. He entered the game with an ERA above 14. 14.44 I think it was, but I could be wrong and I'm too bewildered and angry to look it up.

A fourteen run ERA. Think about that for a minute. If this dude took the mound for nine full, then the Nationals would have to score fifteen fucking runs to win a game. And yet, on Saturday, on a game the Twins could have, and should have, won, he limits the Twins to two hits. Wow.

This is important news because it was pretty much a year ago this weekend that the Twins began their amazing turnaround. At game 59, we were 26-33, eleven back from the surprising Tigers. With Baltimore in town, we took two of three, and began a streak of 20 wins in 22 games.

I don't care about Sunday's victory, because winning one of three against the Nationals would be a disgrace even for the St. Paul Saints. We looked lousy in two games, mediocre against mediocrity in the third. Raise your hands if you think a comeback'll happen this year. If your hand's up, go stand in a corner, face to the wall, with the Hold Steady's "Take Me Out to the Ballgame" looping for an hour. With that penance out of the way, maybe reality will finally sink in. For losing two of three to the Nationals, the fucking Nationals for Christ's sake!, and getting a pair of hits off a kid with a fourteen run ERA, well, it don't look good. It just don't look good...

Posted by Peter Schilling Jr. at June 10, 2007 3:12 PM | Comments (1)

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