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In one of my initial entries this season, I introduced the "Jo-Jo Equation," whereby I'll provide the periodic stat tracker of the factious trade that sent 2-time Cy Young winner Johan Santana to the Mets for four MLB-unprovens. One of the four, Carlos Gomez, is doing his damndest to make Twins fans forget Santana, both with his unhinged legs, and his occasionally-unhinged head. Gomez leads the AL in steals (11), is tied for the team-lead in hits (27), but also holds the dubious honor of leading the club in strikeouts (25 K's in 102 official at-bats, with just 2 walks).
Here's the stat tracking equation presented in that previous post:
-AAA Rochester
Pitching: 1/2 point for a win, a strikeout, or a save.
Hitting: 1/2 point for each total base, a stolen base, or an RBI.
Fielding: 1/2 point for an assist, and a negative 1/2 point for an error.
-Below this level, all point totals are worth 1/3. (Even though the AA level is more about grooming the MLB prospects, rarely is the jump made from here to the Big Show).
-For all Major League numbers accrued, full points are awarded/deducted in the same areas.
And I also added the caveat: "Now, there are no doubt another 589 statistical categories that could be implemented here to further examine and compare Santana with the 4 fellas now on our side -- but let's stick to the basics, I say, and see how the tally comes out."
That said, let's compare the numbers-
Mets (14-12)
Johan Santana-
Pitching: 3-2, 39 Strikeouts
Fielding: 0 errors, 7 Assists
Hitting: 4-15 (.267), 3 2B- 7 Total Bases
Twins (13-14)
Carlos Gomez-
Hitting: 11 Steals, 7 RBI, 27-102 (.265), 6 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR- 38 Total Bases
Fielding: 1 Error, 2 Assists
Twins Minor Leaguers
AAA Rochester
Philip Humber-
Pitching: 1-3, 14 Strikeouts
Fielding: 1 Error, 4 Assists
Kevin Mulvey-
Pitching: 2-2, 29 Strikeouts
Fielding: 0 Error, 6 Assists
(High) A Fort Myers
Deolis Guerra-
Pitching: 2-1, 19 Strikeouts
Fielding: 0 Error, 3 Assists
Totals:
Santana: 56 Points
Our dudes: 88 Points
And lastly, as a series of asides today, here's a little medley of sporting chances that will surely make for some sound weekend cocktail conversation:
1. SI.com/CNN recently released their "Fan Survey of MLB Ballparks," with categories and rankings that include Food, Fan Intelligence, Promotions and Affordability. Note that while the Twins/Dome finished with a suspect 26th Rank (out of 30), we did finish high in the Affordability section (7th). Despite 2 World Series wins in a five-year stretch, however, our History & Tradition Rank was an ugly 27th.
2. There was a great story of sportsmanship to come out of the NCAA women's ranks this week. The ball may not be hard, but these ladies aren't soft --it's really worth reading.
3. Finally, as I've been preparing a baseball book review for this month, I thought I'd toss out a few solid baseball reading recommendations to accompany both the hammock and the gin that are soon to find backyard your dwellings-
-My Greatest Day in Baseball by John P. Carmichael (and others)
-The Umpire Strikes Back and Strike Two by Ron Luciano and David Fischer
-Jackie Robinson: A Biography by Arnold Rampersad
-Fair Ball: A Fan's Case for Baseball by Bob Costas
-The Catcher was a Spy: The Mysterious Life of Moe Berg by Nicholas Dawidoff
-Joe Torre's Ground Rules for Winners by Joe Torre and Henry Dreher
-Sandy Koufax: A Lefty's Legacy by Jane Leavy
or, should you be in more of a listening mood, try:
-The Ernie Harwell Audio Scrapbook (for a few extra dollars, Ernie'll autograph the box for you, too)
UPDATE: The Star Tribune reported at approximately 4:15 p.m. CST today that the older brother of Twins Manager Ron Gardenhire has unexpectedly passed in Oklahoma. Mike Gardenhire was just 55 years old. According to the report, Ron Gardenhire will travel to Oklahoma to be with his family. Scott Ulger will manage the club versus Detroit this weekend. Our well-wishes go out to Gardy and his family.
Posted by Judd Spicer at May 4, 2008 7:04 PM
« The Short Money | Main | Heating Up »
Santana has as many doubles as Delmon Young. That is just sad.
Posted by: Nick N. at May 4, 2008 6:55 PM
That's too bad about Gardy and family...
Good to see we are KILLING santana! Good trade!
May I also suggest the book 'From Ghetto To Glory - the Bob Gibson Story'? - a fine, fine read...one of my favorites...
Posted by: Ryan Malone at May 4, 2008 7:15 PM
Very nice piece. I am very impressed by the talent of these youngsters, however, one has to wonder (with the Twins again exceeding expectations), where we will be come September with the young guys getting worn down. Hopefully losing our Ace doesn't cost us a playoff spot!
Posted by: Twins Fan at May 4, 2008 7:43 PM
Gomez definitely was point worthy today!! What an amazing win we had today! Second biggest comeback in Twins history!!
Posted by: Sandy at May 4, 2008 8:06 PM
Thoughts and prayers are with the Gardenhire family! Great ball this week! The Twins have really pulled it together these last few games with the help of Gomez.
Maybe it's because winter is finally
gone for good!?!
Posted by: Sugar Pop at May 4, 2008 8:44 PM
its about time you have blogged again... i like your numbers system, but the name of the game is still big league wins, and the twins are making a go of it with youth. score 10 points for bill smith.
Posted by: duke at May 4, 2008 9:14 PM
Nick- Nice point on the Doubles. I think we all knew that Santana was a fine all-around athlete and would hit in the NL, although most would be hard-pressed to foresee Young's extra-base lethargy. He hit 38 doubles last year, and has a mere 3 through 30 games in '08.
Ryan- Thanks for the added book recommendation.
Also: Since Santana tossed yesterday, here's a quick Monday morning update on the Jo-Jo Equation:
Twins- 101 Points (I had short-changed K. Mulvey 5 points before)
Mets- 64 Points
Posted by: Judd at May 5, 2008 9:53 AM
Santana is this era's best pitcher, and he got away for a bargain basement price. This index has the remarkable effect of making any four scrubs look better than Johan Santana.
Mr. Spicer, can you come up with any four regularly playing players in the Twins system, taking into account the same level as the four from the trade, that don't out-point Santana? Consider it a challenge.
Posted by: CP Fan at May 5, 2008 4:33 PM
Great Stats Spicer...I just have to say one thing...as I heard all day long on the radio(National and Local)about this Twins team being in 1st place so far...it is "very" early...but so far I'll take it...as most of us Twins Fans probably would.
p.s..and I also agree with Duke in the above comments...Oakland and Minnesota seem to somehow always stay competitive with tight budgets...Cheers to Bill Smith who's working with a bowl of pennies compared to other clubs..
Posted by: A. Lonergan at May 6, 2008 12:53 AM
CP Fan- I consider your well-stated challenge, and accept it, good sir. And I tip my hat, because here's the closest I could get:
Twins-
Matt Tolbert-49 Points
Rochester Starters
Heather Totten- 10 Points
Brian Duensing- 15 Points
Fort Myers Starter
Alex Burnett- 7.25 Points
=81.25 Points
Of course, I thought Santana might be better than 3-2 at this stage, although his strong K total (47) and solid 2.91 ERA largely suggest that if he keeps pitching well the Wins will follow.
And while this index does make some small attempt to "keep score" of the trade- You're right, CP Fan, Santana is a stud who shouldn't be made to appear outdone by lessor talent. While Gomez is growing fast and readily impressing with his steal total(13), he has a long way to go before reaching Jo-Jo luminary status.
Still- this will appear a few more times throughout the year, if, for nothing else, as a means of simply tracking the progress of the guys we got while still following Johan's run through the NL.
And hell, it should be said that both the Twins and the Mets are 16-14. The rub? They're in third, we're in first.
Posted by: Judd at May 6, 2008 9:52 AM
While CP Fan does have a point that the JoJo equation has a certain bias towards the Twins, it is safe to say any such equation would have blatant flaws. I give credit to Mr. Spicer for coming up with something that we can follow throughout the season as an indication of whether the trade looks better or worse in September than it does today.
The Twins had the boldest (or at least ballsiest) offseason of any MLB team that I can remember this decade. Let's give them credit for shaking things up and not standing pat after a disappointing 2007. Even if it means losing a future HOF starting pitcher.
Posted by: Dino at May 6, 2008 11:30 AM
It's not the equation is biased toward the Twins. It's that the equation is utterly meaningless on multiple levels.
Even if stats like wins, saves and assists were accurate measures of performance (they're not) and even if they were adjusted well for level of competition (they're not), you would have to consider ratio statistics (which you don't).
Some guys that play every day shouldn't, because they're out machines. But because they pile up these "counting" statistics (like RBI, strikeouts, and whatever) they look decent. This is why a guy that hits .271 with a .400 on-base percentage is likely a good player, and why a guy like Carlos Gomez, who hits .271 with a .297 on-base percentage, is not. This system values bad players that have regular jobs (even in the minor leagues) more than good players. That's one problem. More broadly, the equation just throws a bunch of things arbitrarily labeled "good" at the wall to see what sticks.
But I don't know why I'm wasting my time. There are seriously so many problems with this that it's impossible to consider it a real talent evaluation system. It's fine if you're just doing this for fun.
Please tell me you're just doing this for fun, and don't actually think outfield assists should count as much as total bases. Please.
Posted by: Rabbit Maranville at May 6, 2008 12:44 PM
Rabbit- Of course it's just for fun, it's baseball.
Look: I'm not pretending to be Bill James, nor do I want to be Bill James. I simply think it's important to follow this transaction throughout the season because of: a) Santana's greatness and popularity here in town; b) the huge dollars he got to pitch in NY; C) the seemingly small degree of MLB-ready talent we received to compliment a pretty-solid core of Twins, and d) this will follow new GM Bill Smith for as long as he holds his current post.
That said- I genuinely enjoy both your candor, and your obvious enthusiasm, and to paraphrase from the shitty movie Primary Colors- "I'm not against a good idea simply because it's not my own."
If you have something that would prove more constructive and telling; some codicil to this math that you'd like to see fleshed out- I'll make it a point to do so at a later juncture, while giving you deserved credit for the equation.
In closure, Rabbit Maranville accrued 11,321 Points for his career.
Posted by: Judd at May 6, 2008 2:29 PM
Rabbit Moronville is right; Mr. Spicer please don't send this equation to Cooperstown. I hear through the grapevine that they are going to start making HOF selections based upon this equation.
Posted by: Twins Fan at May 6, 2008 3:01 PM
Mr. Spicer,
Just heard about this blog. Great stats. Entertaining.
Twins Fan
Posted by: Andrew Well at May 6, 2008 9:03 PM

