Donnybrook: Comparing the Twins and White Sox
I’m not particularly strong with numbers. In fact, the only academic “D” I ever recall receiving came compliments of Senior Math. And while said struggles can be hindsighted to the dual facts that I probably didn’t care much about math at the closure of high school coupled with the actuality that I was on everything but roller skates, today I’ll share a statistical index that I’ve been working with throughout the season. Surely, this system has it’s faults, and I’ll be this first to profess that the only thing Bill James and I may share is that we’ve both donned beards at various life stages. Beyond watching Beautiful Mind a handful of times, I’ll lay no claim to being any sort of statistical authority.
But given the ceaseless duel in the Central, and feeling no need nor desire to add further lament to the plight of our bullpen, now seems like a good time to compare the Twins and White Sox employing what I’ll call the “Ekstrand Index,” an homage to that truly engaging and amusing math teacher that really had no other option than to “D” me, Mr. David Ekstrand.
In short, this index aims to work as a tool comparing the overall value of non-pitchers. Perhaps during ensuing weeks or months, I’ll have a go at one charting pitchers as a means of fully mapping games for degenerate gambling purposes, but for now I’ve got this tool.
The Ekstrand Index plugs in numbers that I feel most crucial to a player’s overall contribution, both with the bat and glove. As you’ll note below, numbers slightly differ for DH’s, and are further separated for catchers. I’ve also slightly tweaked established indexes to compensate for the stats I’ve chosen. The equation, working through a 1-5 scale (but cut more than half for Catchers*), works in the following way:
Runs + RBI + Stolen Bases - Caught Stealing + Walks - Strikeouts + Total Bases - Errors = __________
That number is then added to The Hardball Times’ WSAB (x 5 for compensation)**
The final number is than multiplied by a player’s positional Zone Rating***, and then divided by Total Games Played
Charting Albert Pujols, likely baseball’s best all-around positional player, he received a 4.45. It’s conceivable, at the end of a season, that a player could usurp the “5” ceiling.
NOTES:
*Catcher numbers supplement Caught Stealing % instead of Zone Rating, meaning the final tally is multiplied by a strong .347 % in Mauer’s case instead of a strong Zone Rating, say, .931 in Gomez’ case.
** The WSAB, a tweaking of Bill James’ complex Win Shares formula, was created by The Hardball Times, and is defined as “Win Shares Above Bench, or Baseline. WSAB is a refined approach to Win Shares, in which each player's total Win Shares are compared to the Win Shares an average bench player would have received, given that player's time at bat, on the mound or in the field.” As a point of reference, Lance Berkman has the tops in the majors with a 23. Justin Morneau tops the Twins with a 16.
**Zone Rating defines “the percentage of balls fielded by a player in his typical defensive ‘zone,’ as measured by STATS, Inc.”
Here’s how the Twins and White Sox stack up positionally. I’ve added a “G“ to the player, all numbers aside, that I just plainly feel to be the better baller:
Catcher-
G-Mauer: 1.47
Pierzynski: 0.430
First Base-
G-Morneau: 3.78
Konerko: 1.84
Second Base-
G-Casilla: 2.42
Ramirez: 2.37
Shortstop-
G-Cabrera: 2.17
Punto: 1.97
Third Base-
Buscher: 1.99
G-Crede: 1.93
Left Field-
G-Quentin: 3.77
Young: 1.85
Center Field-
G-Swisher: 2.20
Gomez: 1.34
Right Field-
Span: 3.35
G-Dye: 3.00
DH (supplements On base-plus slugging % instead of Zone Rating)-
G-Thome: 2.88
Kubel: 2.12
Team Lineup Totals-
Us: 20.29
Them: 20.56
Of course should the two clubs still be within a few games come their July 23-25 throwdown at the Dome, then all numbers go out those pressurized doors and the postseason will come down to grit, mettle, timing and hustle.
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