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Donnybrook: Comparing the Twins and White Sox

Filed under: MLB

I’m not particularly strong with numbers. In fact, the only academic “D” I ever recall receiving came compliments of Senior Math. And while said struggles can be hindsighted to the dual facts that I probably didn’t care much about math at the closure of high school coupled with the actuality that I was on everything but roller skates, today I’ll share a statistical index that I’ve been working with throughout the season. Surely, this system has it’s faults, and I’ll be this first to profess that the only thing Bill James and I may share is that we’ve both donned beards at various life stages. Beyond watching Beautiful Mind a handful of times, I’ll lay no claim to being any sort of statistical authority.

But given the ceaseless duel in the Central, and feeling no need nor desire to add further lament to the plight of our bullpen, now seems like a good time to compare the Twins and White Sox employing what I’ll call the “Ekstrand Index,” an homage to that truly engaging and amusing math teacher that really had no other option than to “D” me, Mr. David Ekstrand.

In short, this index aims to work as a tool comparing the overall value of non-pitchers. Perhaps during ensuing weeks or months, I’ll have a go at one charting pitchers as a means of fully mapping games for degenerate gambling purposes, but for now I’ve got this tool.

The Ekstrand Index plugs in numbers that I feel most crucial to a player’s overall contribution, both with the bat and glove. As you’ll note below, numbers slightly differ for DH’s, and are further separated for catchers. I’ve also slightly tweaked established indexes to compensate for the stats I’ve chosen. The equation, working through a 1-5 scale (but cut more than half for Catchers*), works in the following way:

Runs + RBI + Stolen Bases - Caught Stealing + Walks - Strikeouts + Total Bases - Errors = __________

That number is then added to The Hardball Times’ WSAB (x 5 for compensation)**

The final number is than multiplied by a player’s positional Zone Rating***, and then divided by Total Games Played

Charting Albert Pujols, likely baseball’s best all-around positional player, he received a 4.45. It’s conceivable, at the end of a season, that a player could usurp the “5” ceiling.

NOTES:
*Catcher numbers supplement Caught Stealing % instead of Zone Rating, meaning the final tally is multiplied by a strong .347 % in Mauer’s case instead of a strong Zone Rating, say, .931 in Gomez’ case.

** The WSAB, a tweaking of Bill James’ complex Win Shares formula, was created by The Hardball Times, and is defined as “Win Shares Above Bench, or Baseline. WSAB is a refined approach to Win Shares, in which each player's total Win Shares are compared to the Win Shares an average bench player would have received, given that player's time at bat, on the mound or in the field.” As a point of reference, Lance Berkman has the tops in the majors with a 23. Justin Morneau tops the Twins with a 16.

**Zone Rating defines “the percentage of balls fielded by a player in his typical defensive ‘zone,’ as measured by STATS, Inc.”

Here’s how the Twins and White Sox stack up positionally. I’ve added a “G“ to the player, all numbers aside, that I just plainly feel to be the better baller:

Morneau.jpgcarlos-quentin.jpg


Catcher-
G-Mauer: 1.47
Pierzynski: 0.430

First Base-
G-Morneau: 3.78
Konerko: 1.84

Second Base-
G-Casilla: 2.42
Ramirez: 2.37

Shortstop-
G-Cabrera: 2.17
Punto: 1.97

Third Base-
Buscher: 1.99
G-Crede: 1.93

Left Field-
G-Quentin: 3.77
Young: 1.85

Center Field-
G-Swisher: 2.20
Gomez: 1.34

Right Field-
Span: 3.35
G-Dye: 3.00

DH (supplements On base-plus slugging % instead of Zone Rating)-
G-Thome: 2.88
Kubel: 2.12

Team Lineup Totals-
Us: 20.29
Them: 20.56

Of course should the two clubs still be within a few games come their July 23-25 throwdown at the Dome, then all numbers go out those pressurized doors and the postseason will come down to grit, mettle, timing and hustle.

Posted by Judd Spicer at September 4, 2008 9:39 AM

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Comments

3 errors last night with Nathan and Eddie blowing it, not looking good for our boys.

Posted by: pat at September 4, 2008 1:11 PM

surprised to see Konerko so low - all in all, very even on both sides - I would take Thome any day over Kubel in the DH slot...why is Pierzynski so low? Suprised anyone is lower than Gomez...

Here's an equation for you:
Countless Ridiculous Errors + Stupid Base Running Mistakes + a Shitty Bullpen + Nathan Blowing Saves = the current state of the MN Twins

It's like I am watching a team from another city...so uncharacteristic and heart-breaking after such a great, unexpected run...it is the time of year where you MUST win games you have to win (i.e. Mariners, Oakland, etc.)...

Posted by: Malone at September 4, 2008 1:27 PM

CORRECTIONS IN COMMENTARY FORM-
The WASB stat is actually multiplied by 10, not 5, as stated in the article.


The Sox series is obviously Sept. 23-25, not the July dates I noted at the closure of the Post.

Malone- A.J. was so low because of very poor WSAB, a nappy Caught Stealing % of .183, 15th of 16 "Qualified" catchers. He also has 9 errors (3rd worst at catcher). Lastly, his .30 Walk to K ratio is 10th among all qualified cathers.

Posted by: Judd at September 4, 2008 3:39 PM

That is the stupidest statistic ever invented. You should have stopped after you admitted you knew nothing about math. First, you don't account for each of the original stats relation to scoring runs. Then you add this random number to a comprehensive statistic that is in no way related to the random number you came up with.

Posted by: Rick Mc at September 4, 2008 5:09 PM

Gotcha on AJ - thank you!

Posted by: Malone at September 4, 2008 6:38 PM

Dude nasty dance. Once I was able to see straight I found a new massive number crunching technique that yet again supports the adage "on any given day"

Posted by: Brian at September 4, 2008 7:49 PM

seems to me that you were lucky to get that D, teacher must have liked you, your brother or maybe your father. numbers have no meaning when a bullpen can't get those final 6-9 outs.

Posted by: duke at September 5, 2008 8:28 AM

This is too complicated for Rickey.

Posted by: Rickey Henderson at September 5, 2008 8:29 AM

Mr. Ekstrand might want to raise your grade to at least a C after all of this heavy-duty calculating. However, after your "Correction", he might have to multiply your point total by .07321 and sutract. I must say that whatever the hell you did, it looks like you're on to something!!

Posted by: Chris at September 5, 2008 8:52 AM

a couple of thoughts...Stats and Numbers are what makes the game of Baseball intriguing, and I actually like the rating of our guys vs. theirs...BUT I "personally" feel more comfortable just reading Overall Batting Averages...and last but certainly never least...this team's dropping faster than a shot of Cuervo at a local establishment...man I hope they stay in this thing...it's been too good of a Summer to slide now...late.

Posted by: Ferris at September 5, 2008 10:42 AM

UPDATE IN COMMENT FORM:

MLB.com is reporting this afternoon that White Sox left fielder Carlos Quentin, and AL All-Star and the American League leader in home runs with 36, is having surgery Monday to insert a screw into his injured right wrist. The report adds that Quentin will be re-evaluated in two to three weeks. He may miss the remainder of the season.

This is obviously a major blow to our rival, although we pray injury upon no man. It's believed that the White Sox will re-shift their outfield with either Griffey or Swisher in left/center, and Dye in right. Dwayne Wise will also see some platoon duty.

Please click the link for the whole story.

Posted by: Judd at September 5, 2008 4:44 PM

Not sure if all of those numbers actually make sense to me, but with the final tabulations so close, as with the actual records, maye you've got something here.

Posted by: Twins Fan at September 5, 2008 7:06 PM

Senior Math? Instead of making up crazy "statistics" that do not really seem to correlate to being good at baseball, why don't you just use an established metric by guys who probably aced AP Calc, like WARP3 or EQA? They are easily available at Baseball Prospectus.

Posted by: The Captain at September 6, 2008 4:23 AM

Judd, sticking to your area of expertise, what is the narrative argument for Justin Morneau as AL MVP (particularly with Quentin out for the season)? In Rob Neyer's recent blog he claims Morneau and Pedroia are the two top choices in the AL.

Posted by: The Captain at September 6, 2008 9:38 AM

Captain- I agree with Mr. Neyer in that these are the top two, especially with Quentin out. Both are among their team leaders in all batting categories, both are above-average fielders and both are leading their teams toward the Postseason. Head-to-head, however, Perdroia has more doubles, more total bases, just 5 fewer bombs, and he's also swiped 17 bases, getting caught just once. Impressive. A few years back I was at Fenway and recall seeing this guy at the end of a non-Playoff season for the Sox when their lineup was depleted and actually saying out loud to my gal, "Man, that dude is LITTLE." Little guy, huge talent. He's my front-runner with 20 to go. Morneau is 2nd. K-Rod is 3rd. Personally, I've got no beef with a pitcher winning MVP.

And take it for what you will: Pedroia charted a 4.10 on the Ekstrand.

Posted by: Judd at September 6, 2008 1:33 PM

Not sure why you don't take most of the major stats of each player, attribute those to actual division or league averages or rankings and extrapolate from there. It seems that would be a better visual comparison for the average fan.

Posted by: mark cuban at September 6, 2008 11:08 PM

Mr Spicer-
I must say that you have a lot of stats in this article to make your comparisons illuminated. That being the highest for the twins was 16(Morneau), although i agee with the "G" for fisrt base, i dont agree with Mauer vs. Prysenskie; for the reason being that i feel he has more power, comes up with as many cluth hits, and possess this certain savvy that can't be taught, and he know's how to get under the oppositions skin. So thats why i would give to AJ. As with Punto vs. Cabrera. i think that Nick's play has helped alot although he has cost that Seattle game..the bottom line being that the twins were never serious and didnt make moves to improve the team..the starting pictching has done its job for the most part, but are relievers and set up's are showing the effects of fatigue and familarity to the opposition...i dont feel the twins deserve to make the post season, and all fans should just have fun with a better than expected season. The fan base here does not expect excellence and championship, so we are content with just being comptitive...so throw stats aside because the twins never take advantage of their fortunes when it arises except for putting it pack in their pocket books...good article..too much time on the stats...but i do enjoy them though..
cheers;-)

Posted by: efe iyamba at September 8, 2008 3:24 AM

My head hurts:)
My “D” in math says that you’re a genius! Who cares if it makes sense or not, the effort and creativity make for a very entertaining read!!!

Posted by: Sugar Pop at September 10, 2008 9:29 AM

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