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The Jo-Jo Equation: Final Edition

Filed under: MLB

Thursday's inspiring come from behind, late-inning victory over Tampa helped erase myriad unsettling vibes. Among them: Johan Santana's trademark second-half dominance . . . in a Mets jersey. The Santana trade has forced us to realize some of our worst fears. Here’s what I wrote in this space back in mid-March:

. . . the trade that sent Santana to the Mets was largely unpopular here in town, and I would agree with said sentiment, in short, because I truly think that the Twins are a fairly solid club this year, and, with Santana, would have had the opportunity to compete for a post-season slot.

That doesn’t make me smart. In the words of Shelly “The Machine” Levene via Glengarry Glen Ross: "A child would know it …" There is little chance that any club, in any season, in any scenario, would benefit from losing Johan Santana. But the fact that we’ve come this close to tasting the postseason fruits tended, manicured and watered through the toil of 6 months, makes this recent stretch of sour play all the more painful. The autumn juice hasn’t equaled the summer squeeze. Granted, nobody thought we’d make it this far. Few experts thoughts we’d break .500. To remind: that Vegas over/under had us at about 74 wins. The Twins usurped that on August 27th. I put us at 81, a number cracked on September 13th.

It would have been worth it to keep Santana on this club for 2008, even if we received just compensatory draft picks in return. As per what we did receive, I am no authority on minor league baseball (although Seth Stohs is, should you have yet to visit his writings). But from what I’ve followed, gathered and gleaned: Kevin Mulvey and Philip Humber were disappointments at the AAA level, although the latter hurler gathered steam in the last two months and his long relief performance on Thursday was respectable. Deolis Guerra started out like a beast in high A, then tired late. Go-Go? Well, the jury is still out in my opinion. He’s shown raw talent in his first full year in the bigs and at just 22, his future appears bright. Yet, his ’08 left much to be desired. He is still striking out way too much, he went through July without a stolen base, and dude seems to possess something of a daisy-picker mindset at times.

And Jo-Jo? His stellar ’08 has somewhat mirrored his 2006 season in that other facets of team play are making his win numbers appear lesser than he truly deserves. After Thursday night’s start, Santana ranks 7th in the N.L. in Strikeouts, 2nd in ERA, 3rd in Innings Pitched and 1st in Quality Starts. As per usual, he’s a Cy candidate, although San Fran’s Tim Lincecum will likely grab that prize.

For my dollars, should the Twins fall short of the postseason, the overlying question of 2008 comes down to this: Had we known Denard Span would be this good, would the Santana deal still have been made?

Probably. The club seemed intent on receiving walking/talking ballers for Johan instead of losing him for draft picks. But a studly Span usurps a growing Gomez, and without Go-Go in the trade, there would have been no trade. Granted, we were never going to grace Santana with the $137.5 million that the Mets did. But it readily appears that with Johan Santana in 2008, the Minnesota Twins would surely be a playoff team. Comparing his numbers to those of our plucky staff is meaningless, because his are all better (as per the aforementioned stats).

Segueing to numbers, here’s how the Johan Santana trade principals stack up for 2008. In hindsight, as with most things, I would have altered this index to better illuminate the ratio of success. There are few players in baseball -- alone, combined, whatever -- who can be compared with the great Santana. Yet the numbers, for the sake of being thorough, are what they are. To see the point system, please click here.


Mets (85-67)
Johan Santana-
Pitching: 14-7, 187 Strikeouts
Fielding: 1 Error, 26 Assists
Hitting: 10-72 (.139), 5 2B- 15 Total Bases

Twins (83-70)
Carlos Gomez-
Hitting: 31 Steals, 55 RBI, 139-542 (.256), 23 2B, 5 3B, 7 HR- 193 Total Bases
Fielding: 8 Errors, 8 Assists

Humber.jpg
Philip Humber-
Pitching: 0-0, 3 Strikeouts
Fielding: 0 Errors, 0 Assists

Twins Minor Leaguers
AAA Rochester
Philip Humber-
Pitching: 10-8, 106 Strikeouts
Fielding: 1 Error, 9 Assists

Mulvey.jpg
Kevin Mulvey-
Pitching: 7-9, 121 Strikeouts
Fielding: 3 Errors, 17 Assists

(High) A Fort Myers
guerra.jpg
Deolis Guerra-
Pitching: 11-9, 71 Strikeouts
Fielding: 1 Error, 16 Assists

Totals:

Santana: 242 Points

Our Dudes: 447.4

With the boys playing with something perhaps best resembling a flat tire with old chewing gum stuck in the grooves -- one is also wont to consider the emotional impact Santana may have had at this funky time.

Alas, perhaps one last spark awaits. Please check back at the onset of next week for a preview of the Tuesday-Thursday White Sox series at the Dome that, with the Twins still within 2 games, looms larger than any one player ever could.

Posted by Judd Spicer at September 18, 2008 7:06 PM

« Urban Assault Ride: bike for hours and then drink Fat Tire | Main | And... exhale. »

Comments

great article. It's just sad that the owners never take stock in what they have. We bring these guys up and once they show "star potential" we can't compete with teh east coast payroll. Why did reward the Twins with a new stadium when they are consistently at the bottom of the payroll and not Ziggy when he's spending cash all over the place trying to make a better team?

Posted by: pat at September 19, 2008 11:25 AM

Very good analysis - Although pouring $$$ into a team doesn't guarantee wins, (i.e. Yankees), there are times when you've got to pony up if you want to be a contender. And this was one of those times. Otherwise, you will always come up short - as we are proving this year.

Posted by: Matt at September 19, 2008 1:53 PM

It was a gamble whether we had kept Yohan or got rid of him. Turns out, Billy didn't make such a bad call. However, I still think that we would have been good enough to make the playoffs without Denard and company. And just imagine what kind of advantage the Twins would have going into the playoffs starting Santana 1 and Liriano 2. We should have kept him.

Posted by: Gabe-O at September 19, 2008 11:31 PM

...after watching tonight's mess of a game...I've given up on this team...it was a great run this year, but it's just not their year...the Angels would CRUSH this team in the playoffs!!...

Posted by: Jimmy Mac at September 20, 2008 12:21 AM

Pat- Zygi will get his, I think, however the Twins have been working far longer in pursuit of a new home. Personally, the Dome seems like a fine place for football, although the team (as per baseball) doesn't reap any concession profits.

Jimmy Mac- Maybe your headband's on too tight. We're 3-5 against LA of A this year. Not crushed. Vomit on last night. Keep the faith.

Posted by: Judd at September 20, 2008 10:04 AM

Johann is Johann - He is one of the best in the game - no doubt. I am happy the Twins made the moves that they did to retain the good young talent. We couldn't have kept him given his worth - his salary would have held us hostage. In turn, we have been able to retain more quality players and get some quality young talent for the future. There is a good future for this team (as always) and that is something we can always look forward to. I am glad we dealt Johann when we did. Is he missed, sure. Are we a better club today for it? Arguably leaning to yes. Are we a better club for tomorrow? Absolutely.

Posted by: Malone at September 21, 2008 4:16 PM

Excellent post, thank you!

Posted by: Jay Smith at September 22, 2008 9:34 AM

It's always tomorrow with the Twins...if the M & M boys keep winning MVP's and batting titles they'll be the next casualties of the "can't afford" group.

Posted by: pat at September 22, 2008 1:19 PM

Pat- Fear not: Mauer is signed through 2010, a year in which he's getting $12.5 mil. Morneau is signed through 2013, a year in which the slugger is getting $14 mil.

Posted by: Judd at September 22, 2008 4:21 PM

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