Buck the Idiot

Buck The Idiot Close-Out Picks

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The grand experiment of BTI comes to an abbreviated close this weekend, as a truncated slate of college and pro football games will reduce my total number of picks from 15 to 10. After that, it's all championships and bowl games--not enough to prove my idiocy. But for those keeping score, I went 7-8 last week, meaning that just once in eight weeks did I pick more winners than losers. Can any other prognosticator provide you more reliability--and for free? Overall mark? 51-66-3.

Okay, on to this week's picks...

COLORADO minus 15 and a half over Colorado.
The Buffs are rolling and Nebraska's West Coast offense will be stymied by the elements and CU's D.

ARIZONA plus 9 over Arizona State.
A rivalry game with a guy named Stoops coaching the heavy 'dog.

HAWAII minus 7 over Wisconsin.
Does anyone think the Badgers will have their head on straight for this one? What are the consequences of a loss? Surf's up and the drinks are flowing...

FLORIDA minus 4 over Florida State.
The Seminoles have been exposed as pretenders and Urban Meyer wants to please the alumni on his first FU-FSU tilt.

KENTUCKY minus 9 over Tennessee.
After the LSU win, the Vols simply packed it in. Why are they giving 9 on the road?

NORTH CAROLINA plus 23 over Virginia Tech.
After two ballyhooed contests versus Miami and Virginia, this is a classic letdown game for VT.

and the college "lock"

MIAMI minus 17 over Virginia.
Nothing like an embarrassing loss to refocus the bad boy 'Canes against an outmanned opponent at home.

As for the pros, here are the three picks, with no "locks"

CLEVELAND plus 4 over Minnesota.
Minnesota is the worst 5-5 team I have ever seen.

JACKSONVILLE minus 3 over Arizona.
The Jags' D is too much for Denny Green, even with the Cards in the desert.

TENNESSEE minus 7 and a half over San Francisco.
The betting line is the ONLY reason to care about this game.

Posted by Britt Robson at November 25, 2005 10:00 AM | Comments (0)

 

Another Profitably Idiotic Week

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Take it to the bank, my friends. The Idiot once again muffed 60 percent of his picks against the spread last week, leaving his overall mark at 38-50-2. Because the college game is where his ineptitude seems most pronounced, you've only got a few more weeks to Buck The Idiot and cash in with your bookie.

On to the picks for Week 7...

ARIZONA minus 13 over Washington.
It's been a lost season for Ty Willingham's Huskies and they're not going to magically find themselves in the desert.

BOSTON COLLEGE minus 4 and a half over North Carolina State.
Hard to imagine BC not covering at home against the obviously inferior Wolfpack.

SOUTH CAROLINA plus 4 over Florida.
The spread has been dropping on this game for good reason. Do you really want to bet against Steve Spurrier when he's getting points at home against his old team?

CLEMSON plus 1 and a half against Florida State.
Another compelling home 'dog. Clemson is a tough place to play, and FSU simply isn't that good this year.

TULANE plus 1 over Rice.
I know the Owls are at home, but any time Rice is favored you've got to go the other way.

CONNECTICUT plus 12 over Pittsburgh.
Just a hunch. This has been a star-crossed year for Dave Wannstedt's Panthers and that's a pretty large number they are laying.

TEXAS A&M plus 13 over Oklahoma.
See above. An Oklahoma team that was supposed to be much better than it is giving up nearly two touchdowns to an inconsistent but respectable opponent.

TEXAS minus 33 over Kansas.
This game has "slaughter" written all over it.

ALABAMA plus 3 over LSU.
Yet another appetizing home underdog. Alabama seems like a team of destiny, at least until they run into Auburn.

and the college "lock"

OREGON minus 4 and a half over Washington State.
Why aren't the Ducks getting any respect? The PAC-10 is among the top three conferences this year and Oregon is 8-1. The Cougars, meanwhile, have lost six in a row.

As for the pros, it's a desultory group of matchups this week, but the NFL has been my bitch the past two weeks, so perk up.

N.Y. GIANTS minus 9 and a half over Minnesota.
Remember what Carson Palmer did to the Vikings secondary in Week 2? Remember how Carolina and Steve Smith picked them apart two weeks ago? Well, Eli Manning and the Jints receivers have been hot all year, and even the injury to Fred "Mute" Smoot won't help the Purple.

ATLANTA minus 9 and a half over Green Bay.
Any pretense the Pack had of sucking it up this season pales next to the fact that they are 1-7, decimated by injuries, and can't even be comforted by the notion they are building for the future--because they aren't.

SAN FRANCISCO plus 13 over Chicago.
It's about time for Kyle Orton to exhibit a little hubris. Expect many turnovers and a close game.

MIAMI plus 3 over New England.
It was a hell of a run for the Pats, but the mystique is over. Their secondary is in a shambles and Nick Saban is too good of a coach not to take advantage. This is the week the wraps come off the passing game.

Last but not least, the NFL "lock:"

KANSAS CITY plus 2 and a half over Buffalo.
Dick Vermeil's decision to go for the touchdown on the final play of last week's win is the sort of thing that makes or breaks a team. Even without Priest Holmes, the Chiefs are primed for a monster game. And they're getting points from the oddsmakers.

Posted by Britt Robson at November 12, 2005 6:41 AM | Comments (0)

 

Pigskin Picks for Week 6

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Blah. Any way you slice it, that's the best word to describe the Idiot's thoroughly pedestrian 7-7-1 mark in last week's games. I could spin it to say that in five weeks of prognostication, only once has the Idiot finished with a winning record on his 15 picks. But the real bottom line is that through five weeks and 75 games, the Idiot's record now stands at 32-41-2. That's not too shabby--if you'd Bucked the Idiot from the start, you'd have a fair piece of change in your pocket--but still short of the 60-80 percent lunacy we've come to expect from our wayward oddsmaker.

Enough of this filibuster. On to week 6...

AIR FORCE minus 11 and a half over Army.
Even the Idiot has a winning record picking against pathetic Army this year.

MISSISSIPPI STATE plus 16 over Alabama.
State gets more than two touchdowns in Starkville, playing a 'bama squad that can't help but look ahead to LSU.

MISSOURI plus 11 and a half over Colorado.
Love Mizzou's QB, who should be a Heisman candidate. The Buffs are at home, but still laying too heavy against a capable opponent.

VANDERBILT plus 19 over Florida.
Another disrespected road 'dog playing a solid, but hardly overwhelming, large school program.

IOWA minus 2 and a half over Northwestern.
The Hawkeyes are coming off a bye week; the Wildcats off a dispiriting loss to Michigan. Bad combination for Northwestern.

MICHIGAN STATE minus 5 over Purdue.
Stick a fork in the Boilermakers. Even as a home 'dog, I can't side with Purdue's defense against the juggernaut Spartan O.

STANFORD plus 33 and a half over USC.
By Jesus, 33-plus is a lot of points. USC is living out a marvelous dynasty, and playing at home, but the Cardinal isn't exactly Duke or Army. USC by no more than 24.

TCU minus 7 over Colorado State
The Horned Frogs are very quietly having a wonderful year. And a mediocre road team like CSU isn't going to interrupt it.

VIRGINIA TECH minus 6 and a half over Miami.
When I heard Miami braying about not getting any respect in the paper today, I knew VT had this one sown up. The Hurricanes are bad boyz; they don't do victimhood unless they know they're in trouble.

College "lock"
WISCONSIN plus 11 over Penn State.
Yes, Happy Valley is a tough place to play. But this is a tossup game at a neutral site, between two quality programs with evenly matched personnel. I think the Badgers may even spring the upset.

And my five NFL picks...

ATLANTA minus 2 and a half over Miami.
I understand the Falcons are on the road and that Vick is dinged. But Atlanta's ability to control the line of scrimmage is worth more than a field goal.

TAMPA BAY plus 1 and a half over Carolina.
This game feels like a tossup any way I look at it. So why not take the home 'dog?

PITTSBURGH minus 3 and a half over Green Bay.
An extremely banged up team against an extremely physical team. Even with no Big Ben on one side and Big Bad Bret on the other, I see the Steelers in a rout.

KANSAS CITY minus 4 and a half over Oakland.
Unless Randy Moss is playing possum, Oakland simply doesn't have the horses (how's that for a mixed mammal metaphor?) to keep pace with the Chiefs at Arrowhead.

Last and probably least, my pro "lock"
CHICAGO minus 3 over New Orleans.
The Vikings thumped the Saints. The Packers thrashed the Saints. It has by now dawned on the Bears that, even with Orton as their signal-caller, they are the class of their division.

Posted by Britt Robson at November 4, 2005 1:58 PM | Comments (0)

 

The Idiot Gets His Swerve Back

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Hey folks. Bucking the idiot would have put you 9-5-1 in games last week, which would still only be the third-best outcome in the four times we've toted it up thus far. For those keeping score, my season mark now stands at 25-34-1, and if you excise the inexplicable hiccup from two weeks back, when I called 11 out of 15 winners, I'd be 14-30-1.

Now, with the weekend's first games little more than two hours away, let's get right to the picks. Here are the ten college and five pro teams I honestly believe will beat the spread. I humbly suggest you buck the idiot and bag some loot from your friendly betting parlor.

ALABAMA minus 34 over Utah State.
It's impress the BCS time, meaning teams still within sniffing distance of a national championship have incentive to run up the score. The Aggies are traveling from mountainous Logan, Utah, deep into the heart of Dixie. That itself will cost a couple of touchdowns.

KANSAS STATE plus 7 and a half over Colorado
The Buffs simply aren't good enough to be giving more than a touchdown to a decent K-State team on the road.

NORTHWESTERN plus 3 over Michigan
The Wildcats are up this season, and are playing at home. The Wolverines are down, and are considered disappointments even if they win out the rest of the year. And Northwestern is the 'dog?

MISSOURI minus 5 and a half over Kansas
The Missouri QB is a fabulous athlete. Even playing at home, Kansas simply doesn't have the talent to hang here.

BRIGHAM YOUNG minus 6 and a half over Air Force
Air Force is going to look mighty enticing to BYU after slugging it out with Notre Dame.

KENTUCKY plus 1 over Mississippi State
The Wildcats don't have a chance to win many SEC games. They'll be up for this tossup in Lexington.

OREGON STATE minus 9 and a half over Arizona
I expected the spread to be double digits. Both Oregon teams are formidable this year, and Arizona will scrum it out with Ty's Washington Huskies as the PAC-10 doormat.

TENNESSEE minus 14 over South Carolina
The Vols have had a frustrating year. And what better, guilt-free way to vent your frustration than by whupping up on a mediocre squad coached by Steve Spurrier?

TEXAS minus 37 over Oklahoma State
Another BCS-induced rout. Oklahoma State is at home. By the third quarter, most of the fans in the stands will be from across the border.

and my college "lock"
GEORGIA plus 4 over Florida
Is there an injury I don't know about? This is always a battle royale at a neutral site. The Dawgs are clearly the better team. And they're getting points?

On to the NFL....

CAROLINA minus 7 and a half over Minnesota
Three solid quarters of football in six games just ain't enough evidence to believe the Vikes can stay with a solid 4-2 team on the road.

ARIZONA plus 9 over Dallas
Denny Green is starting to put the pieces together, and that's a pretty big number the bookies are giving his team.

N.Y. GIANTS minus 2 and a half over Washington
Both of these teams need to play well the next few weeks to prove they're for real in a tough, tough, conference. But I like Eli Manning at home, giving less than a field goal.

SAN DIEGO minus 6 over Kansas City
The Chargers have had a brutal schedule, and must feel like there's light at the end of the tunnel. LT has a little more tread left than Priest Holmes.

Last but not least, the pro "lock"
CHICAGO plus 3 over Detroit
Everybody is raving about Jeff Garcia like he's the savior. The best thing about him is that he's not Joey Harrington. And that won't make any difference to a superior Bears' defense.

Posted by Britt Robson at October 29, 2005 8:41 AM | Comments (1)

 

Buck the Idiot: Reversal of Fortune

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Okay, so the idiot pulled a fast one last week, actually picking 11 winners out of 15 games. My percentage is now up to 44, which means if you've bucked the idiot from the start, you'd barely have any coin after paying the vigorish. But you'd still be ahead, my friend, and I'm guessing my idiocy will right itself this week and restore things to their proper perspective. Hopefully by now you know the drill. I'll pick the ten college and five NFL teams I honestly think have the best chance of covering the spread. I think you'd be wise to bet the other way.

On to the picks...

IOWA minus 2 and a half over Michigan.
The Hawkeyes have righted themselves-- it's a typical Kirk Ferenz team--and Michigan is down, headed for a minor bowl and Lloyd Carr's head on a platter.

CONNECTICUT plus 3 and a half over Rutgers.
I understand that Rutgers is vastly improved, but whupping Syracuse
doesn't mean they're good enough to be giving points on the road.

AUBURN plus 6 and a half over LSU.
I still think the Tigers are worn down from Katrina distractions and the adjustment to a new coach. And Auburn is gelling.

NEBRASKA plus 2 over Missouri.
Why isn't Nebraska getting more respect? The 'Huskers are one play away from being undefeated. They'll beat Missou straight up, even away from Lincoln.

VANDERBILT plus 8 over South Carolina.
Vandy has played a tough schedule the last few weeks. Going into South Carolina is going to feel like a breather and 8 points is way too much here.

ILLINIOS plus 17 and a half over Penn State.
Illinios is terrible, and the Nittany Lions will win comfortably. But one of their super frosh is hurt, they lost their national championship hopes last week, and I just have a feeling this is merely a workman-like victory, say 22-10.

CALIFORNIA minus 12 over Washington State.
Atonement time for what I still think is a very good Cal squad. They let UCLA get away and underestimated the Oregon Ducks. Washington State won't be so lucky.

WISCONSIN minus 8 over Purdue.
Stick a fork in Purdue. Eight points doesn't mean a lot in this game, as both defenses are suspect. But the Badgers are still playing for relatively large stakes. The Boilermakers are playing for break-even.

CINCINNATI plus 22 over Louisville.
The Cardinals are overrated this year because they were underrated last year--sort of like giving the Oscar to the actor's good performance after a great one slipped past. Cincinnati isn't that bad, and even though the campuses are only 3-4 hours apart, they're playing at home as a heavy heavy 'dog.

College "lock":
VIRGINIA plus 1 over North Carolina.
Virginia chewed up Florida State, supposedly a top ten team, last week. And now they're underdogs to North Carolina?

And five pro games...

CINCINNATI minus 1 over Pittsburgh.
That's two Cincinnati picks this week--I really must be an idiot. But seriously, the Bengals are at home, Carson Palmer is healthy, and Big Ben isn't. And even when the Bengals sucked, they played the Steelers tough.

HOUSTON plus 16 over Indianapolis.
Undefeated team against winless team six weeks into the season is a recipe for complacency. The NFL's parity is a cliche by now, but don't you expect a closer game than two touchdowns just because parity, like shit, always eventually happens in the NFL.

SEATTLE minus 3 over Dallas.
It figures that the Seahawks would finally be good the one year everyone stops regarding them as a contender. Giving up only a field goal at home against the Cowboys, with Shaun Alexander steamrolling to another great year? Sign me up.

OAKLAND minus 3 over Buffalo.
It's been a nice little run for Kelly Holcomb, but if the Raiders lose at home today to go 1-5, it's a major disaster. I don't think Holcomb can handle a defense that's that motivated.

And, last but certainly not least, the NFL "lock"

BALTIMORE plus 1 over Chicago.
I'd lay even money that the Ravens defense outscores the Bears offense; or at least sets up more points with red zone takeaways.

Posted by Britt Robson at October 22, 2005 12:25 AM | Comments (0)

 

Buck The Idiot rolls on...

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No brag, just fact: I picked a mere five winners out of 15 games last week, actually boosting my overall record to 9-21. In other words, if you'd been bucking the idiot since we started this little exercise, you'd have bagged 70 percent winners against the spread.

On to Week 3, in which, as always, I choose the ten college and five pro football teams I honestly think have the best chance of beating the odds this weekend. Your profitable assignment, should you choose to accept it, is to find a bookie and bet against my choices. That's why we call this Buck the Idiot.

COLORADO plus 17 over Texas.
The Longhorns are clearly one of the nation's top five teams, but giving up 17 to a pretty fair squad like Colorado after an emotional win over Oklahoma seems exorbitant to me.

OHIO STATE minus 6 and a half over Michigan State.
We'll see if the steadfast hype on the Buckeyes linebackers is legit or not, because Michigan State has a potent offense. But Ohio State is at home, coming off a tough loss to Penn State. They should clear by at least a touchdown.

DUKE plus 20 and a half over Georgia Tech.
I know Duke sucks. But Georgia Tech getting more than 20 on the road? Only against Army would this make sense.

TCU minus 23 over Army.
Speaking of Bobby Ross's sad sad squad...I've called only nine out of 30 games right the past two weeks, and two of those wins have been going with Army's opponents.

IOWA minus 14 and a half over Indiana.
Kirk Ferentz has a knack for keeping his Hawkeyes on the upswing throughout the season. Playing at home, Iowa destroys Indiana's rare ability to harbor delusions of grandeur.

GEORGIA minus 16 over Vanderbilt.
Should either USC or Texas slip, Georgia, and not Virginia Tech, should be playing for the national championship. Vandy started strong, is having a nice season, and is at home, but they're simply overmatched here.

NORTHWESTERN plus 7 and a half over Purdue.
Purdue is better than it's shown the past three weeks, especially on defense. But Northwestern nearly beat Penn State, knocked off Wisconsin last week, and is getting more than a touchdown.

VIRGINIA plus 7 over Florida State.
Virginia needs this game and is playing at home. FSU has been, depending on how closely you've paid attention, either unimpressive or overrated.

FLORIDA plus 6 over LSU.
Long after other headlines dominate the news, the hurricane-related distractions will continue to wear on LSU (and the NFL's Saints), beyond the tenacity of their feel-good-story emotions. And the Tigers' new coach isn't as good as Gators' new coach.

My college "lock' this week...

NEBRASKA minus 2 over Baylor.
Huh? The 'Huskers lost in the last few seconds to Texas Tech in a battle of unbeatens last week. Meanwhile, Baylor was finally ending a multiyear conference losing streak. And that enables the Bears to creep within a field goal of Nebraska? Even in Waco, ain't gonna happen.

As for the pros...

JACKSONVILLE plus 3 over Pittsburgh.
After surviving a rugged Monday nighter against San Diego, the Steelers face an even more rugged Jacksonvile D with a gimpy QB who wasn't that mobile to begin with.

CAROLINA plus 1 over Detroit.
The third week in a row I pick against Joey Harrington and the Lions. Let's hope it's the charm.

DENVER minus 3 over New England.
As everyone knows, the Pats are dinged up and at the tail end of an absolutely brutal stretch of games. They've got the heart of a champion, but the Broncos once again are staunch along the O-line, and playing at home.

CINCINNATI minus 3 over Tennessee.
This is the game Marvin Lewis has to win--against a mediocre team on the road--if the Bengals are truly going to take a step forward this season.

And finally, my pro "lock"--

MINNESOTA plus 3 over Chicago.
We've all seen it a thousand times before. Bedraggled team shits the bed with a sensational scandal of some sort that forces them into an "us against the world" mentality and makes the football field the most carefree chunk of real estate in the world that week. I expect a Vikings blowout, followed by much ridiculous chest-thumping.

Posted by Britt Robson at October 14, 2005 8:42 PM | Comments (0)

 

Buck The Idiot Tipsheet

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Hah! You doubted the idiot, didn't you? When I said my prognostications have been wrong anywhere from 60 to 80 percent of the time over the last five or six years, you figured you'd just hang back and have a little look-see. Well, if you'd taken the plunge and bucked the idiot last week, you would have gone 11-4, including a gaudy 8-2 in the ten college games I called. Name me another tipsheet producing those kinds of numbers, not to mention giving away their picks for free.

Among my more idiotic moments from a week ago was calling Vanderbilt to cover the 15 points against Middle Tennessee (they didn't even win the game); and claiming the Pats minus 5 and half against San Diego as my NFL "lock" (the final? 41-17 Chargers).

A little knowledge is a dangerous thing, my friends, and that is precisely what I bring to the table when it comes to college and pro football odds. I read the sports pages of at least one and sometimes two or three papers every day, and I spend anywhere from an hour to four hours over the weekend surfing through the surfeit of pigskin shenanigans. Just enough to pretend to myself I know what I'm doing; enough to fall prey to sucker odds laid by bookies and oddsmakers with far more voluminous and private information.

But enough about the process of my idiocy. By now you're all chomping at the bit for my picks for this weekend's games. As is now the custom, here are the choices I honestly consider to be the best bets on ten college and five pro games (including both a college and a pro "lock"), along with a thumbnail explanation.

Record last week: College 2-8
Pro 2-3
Season record 4-11

On to this week...

OREGON plus 10 over Arizona State
The Sun Devils suffer a letdown after their near-miss against Southern Cal, something they can't afford against the underrated Ducks.

VIRGINIA plus 7 over Boston College
BC finds out the ACC is deeper than the Big East, and that even a non-elite team like the Cavaliers can come up to Chestnut Hill and spring the upset.

FLORIDA STATE minus 21 against Wake Forest
Bobby Bowden is finally able to run up the score on outmanned opponents again.

IOWA STATE minus 8 over Baylor
Baylor is horrible. ISU is home after nearly toppling Nebraska in Lincoln.

OHIO STATE minus 3 over Penn State
Joe Pa nostalgia gets in the way of common sense. No matter how good Penn State's pack of frosh are, they're still playing a superb Buckeyes team that is a bungled quarterback platoon against Texas away from being undefeated.

CENTRAL MICHIGAN minus 2 over Army
Betting against Army was my college lock last week, and one of only two college games I hit. Why quit now?

GEORGIA plus 3 over Tennessee
Making the Vols field-goal favorites at home is the same as saying the personnel of these two teams is approximately even. The Bulldogs will disabuse everyone of that notion in convincing fashion, winning outright on the road.

CALIFORNIA minus 1 over UCLA
The Bears are right behind the Trojans as the class of the PAC-10. No way they should be dogs, even on the road, against a still-unproven UCLA team.

TEXAS minus 14 over Oklahoma
The spread is "only" 14 because of the intense history produced by this rivalry. But even if that passion is worth a touchdown, Texas could still cover. The Longhorns are way up in talent and chemistry this year, while the Sooners look more inept than they have in more than a decade

College "lock":
CINCINNATI plus 13 over Pittsburgh
What's this? Dave Wannstadt is walking through a career-damaging nightmare with a squad that should be on the verge of mutiny and at the very least is seriously questioning itself. And Pitt is still giving nearly two touchdowns?

And five pro tilts...

MIAMI plus 2 and a half over Buffalo
Nick Saban prepares his teams as well as any coach in the country. The Bills counter by, er, starting Kelly Holcomb.

SAN FRANCISCO plus 14 and a half over Indianapolis
Hard to turn down a home dog getting that many points in the NFL.

GREEN BAY minus 3 over New Orleans
The Saints can't cover anybody. With Favre chucking, the Pack will either win or lose by more than 20. I think Number 4 is accurate on Sunday.

CHICAGO plus 3 over Cleveland
Lovie Smith has got a much better defense than anything the Browns' offense can muster. Go with the dog in a low-scoring game.

Pro "lock":
BALTIMORE plus 1 and a half over Detroit
Yeah, the Lions were robbed against Tampa Bay. What are the chances that Joey Harrington keeps his poise enough to avoid multiple errors against a stellar defense two weeks in a row? Slim and slimmer. And the Lions are favored!

Posted by Britt Robson at October 7, 2005 10:41 PM | Comments (1)