Horse Racing

The Short Money

Filed under: Horse Racing

From:
Jack K. Sparks
Hillbilly Number One
El Platano Blanco

To:
SGT Sparkes, Michael
FSC 1-327 IN REG
1ST ARMORED DIV
Somewhere Overseas

Cousin Mike,

Spring is breaking across Minnesota; however, we aren't experiencing it fully because the good Lord has seen fit to extend old Martinmas into damn near May. Unfortunately, Mother Nature's roulette wheel always lands on Black around this time of year as she ushers in all of Summer's shortsighted pursuits. Chief among these are man's search for sustenance from the feral fauna of the land, and, man's search for the big score from an endless procession of glue factory nags at Parimutuel windows from Santa Anita to Belmont.

This is where the story both begins and ends though, Michael, because these days are always fogged over with a green cloud called Demko. The world is full of bad ideas, and the Kentucky Derby has always been one of them. The Kentucky Derby at a track roughly 600+ miles North of Churchill Downs is borderline ridiculous.

The fact is, the REAL Kentucky Derby is full of the worst kind of people, from the very rich to the very stupid to the very rich and stupid. These people often have too much money and a warped sense of "the finish line." A bad day for them either consists of an hour not wearing silk, or an hour having not fired a shot in anger. Sobriety is a luxury.

Transpose this ill conceit to a wind torn suburb belched from a set of highways and roads designed and built by a colony of inbred chimps from a long forgotten Medeival zoo. Couples named George and Martha show up at this event in matching denim Mickey and Minnie Mouse varsity jackets bought ten years ago, "when the kids were little" on a terrible 4 day weekend in Orlando. They'd throw the jackets away, but in a crowd like this, it's good to mark yourself with something familiar. These strays are surrounded by slovenly drunks named Chip and Chaz who read one Hunter S. Thompson article in a Journalism 101 course and decided that a lot of alcohol in a public place is the functional equivalent of living the high life. These people are 50 kinds of dumb.

But I'm not going to plead immunity from prosecution. I have my own vaccuum of intelligence and it all begins with the 651 area code. This man calls me every year to begin the descent into evil...horses, strong drink, and money I don't have. Somewhere during the unholy abortion that is my friendship with one Paul J. Demko, he convinced me that it is possible for man to predict the performance of beast and profit from the enterprise. But this is folly. We are the beasts.

And then he goads me, annually, into this contest of words full of equine nonsense.

But we don't have time for this. James Scully had to wipe off his tip with his own dirty sock after watching Big Brown work out this morning, which is good for scumbags like Demko who will box him in an exacta with the field with money they stole from of a passed out drunk sleeping it off under the Cracker and Cheese table at Liquor Lyles the night before. This is money ill spent, because the returns will be even, and given his proclivity for strong drink, and misguided bets on Maiden Sprints featuring the local hippodrome, Demko will go home poor.

Between the rails, on the dirt, the Kentucky Derby rewards WINNERS. And there will only be one winner this Saturday, a great grandson of Seattle Slew named Pyro. This balls out bastard ran a semi-circle around the field at the Risen Star Stakes and then did it again at the Louisiana Derby a few weeks later. His poor showing on the Polytrack is a rope-a-dope, and the dopes are eating it like dessert.

But Big Brown can't be totally discounted. He'll have just enough gas to finish second, a half length ahead of a Sheila named Eight Belles, followed by Colonel John and Gayego or Monba. Yes, for the losers, this will be the Super Hi-5, a sucker bet that will build the latest, most depraved "executive suite" at Churchill Downs in less than a year. These are the crimes that never go reported, especially in states like Kentucky.

I weep for humanity Mike. Stay safe and sit on your helmet.

Ad astra per aspera.

Posted by Jack Sparks at April 29, 2008 10:37 PM | Comments (2)

 

Derby days are here again

Filed under: Horse Racing

Jack K. Sparks--hillbilly music aficionado, Kansas City Royals fan, and certain product of at least three generations of inbreeding--has been sending me hostile, deranged emails for months about the Kentucky Derby. On opening day of the baseball season, slurping Miller Lite like a hog at a trough, the drunken savage hollered at me incoherently until I agreed to go in with him on some ludicrous superfecta bet on the first Saturday in May. (Which by the way is the name of a documentary about the Kentucky Derby that opens on Friday at the Lagoon.) It was almost as pathetic as watching that sad drunk Hank Goldberg analyze races for ESPN.

But with all the significant prep races out of the way it's time to start seriously contemplating the field for the finest day on the racing calendar. There's still the Lexington Stakes this Saturday, but only a few half-assed contenders (Atoned, Salute the Sarge and Tomcito) are slated to run.

Andrew Beyer is whining (registration required) that the increasing prevalence of synthetic tracks makes it nearly impossible to predict what these three-year-old beasts will do once they hit the dirt at Churchill Downs. But the Derby's always been a fool's bet, with horses running in the largest field of their lives and at a distance that none of them have previously competed at. I'll not be dissuaded by one more wildcard.

The top three contenders, according to current odds, are Big Brown, Colonel John, and Pyro. The first two thoroughbreds won their final tests at the Florida Derby and the Santa Anita Derby respectively. But Pyro--the horse that Sparks has been frothing at the mouth about for two months--finished a dismal 10th at last Saturday's Blue Grass Stakes. Horse gambling fiends are now feverishly debating whether that wretched performance should be ignored because of Keeneland's polytrack surface. (Last year's winner, Street Sense, also faltered in the Blue Grass.)

War Pass was the favorite heading into the prep season, but he's failed to win in two straight races and doesn't look to have the stamina for the 1 1/4 mile test. To my bloodshot and misguided eyes, Gayego (winner of the Arkansas Derby), Z Fortune (2nd in Arkansas), and Recapturetheglory (winner of the Illinois Derby) look like longshots that could prove worthy of watching.

The last two years I've correctly picked the winning beast, but failed to put any money on either because the odds weren't sufficiently profitable. It's that kind of betting brilliance that repeatedly results in me leaving the track broke.

The fabulous Daily Racing Forum web site has video footage of almost every single prep race so there's no excuse for ignorance. For the third year running, the Derby will coincide with the commencement of the racing season at Canterbury Park.

Posted by Paul Demko at April 17, 2008 1:42 PM | Comments (2)

 

Street Sense, Hard Spun, Curlin and some other sad beasts

Filed under: Horse Racing

After the madness of the Kentucky Derby--20 horses jostling for a clean patch of dirt for a mile and a quarter--The Preakness is something of a letdown. The field is set at nine, with only four Derby contestants returning to the starting gate at Pimlico. Street Sense will be there, of course, along with the other two horses that finished in the money, Curlin and Hard Spun. The other retread is Circular Quay, a late runner that I was dumb enough to throw some money at two weeks ago and who finished sixth.

There's a reason none of the other five horses competed in the Derby. They look to be a bunch of stiffs. King of the Roxy is the only semi-impressive beast, having finished second (to Tiago) in the Santa Anita Derby. I'm also semi-intrigued by C.P. West, who's only finished out of the money once in eight runs, but against suspect competition.

After re-watching the Derby, it's impossible not to think that Street Sense will romp again at Pimlico. It was a thoroughly impressive run, slinking from 19th along the rail to blow by the field with ease. Watch for yourself:

Posted by Paul Demko at May 18, 2007 2:45 PM | Comments (1)

 

P.A. and Dubay

Filed under: Horse Racing

Horseracing guru Steve Davidowitz will be on the show around 11 a.m. P.A. says he likes Tiago, Dominica, and Great Hunter. Wagering commences in less than seven hours!

Posted by Paul Demko at May 3, 2007 10:03 AM | Comments (2)

 

Queen Elizabeth and the smart money is on Street Sense

Filed under: Horse Racing

Here's the Derby lineup:

1 Sedgefield 50-1
2 Curlin 7-2
3 Zanjero 30-1
4 Storm in May 30-1
5 Imawildandcrazyguy 50-1
6 Cowtown Cat 20-1
7 Street Sense 4-1
8 Hard Spun 15-1
9 Liquidity 30-1
10 Teuflesberg 30-1
11 Bwana Bull 50-1
12 Nobiz Like Shobiz 8-1
13 Sam P. 20-1
14 Scat Daddy 10-1
15 Tiago 15-1
16 Circular Quay 8-1
17 Stormello 30-1
18 Any Given Saturday 12-1
19 Dominican 20-1
20 Great Hunter 15-1

I'm not inclined to care much about post position. It's going to be a long, messy race. But Great Hunter getting pushed all the way out wide insures that he won't be in any of my bets.

After Milan went up 3-0 in its brilliant pasting of Manchester last night, I spent some time studying the race history of these beasts. Granted the wine stains on the sheets indicate that I might not have been at the height of my handicapping powers, but how is Street Sense not the favorite in this race?

He's raced seven times, winning three and never finishing out of the money. He's earned, by far, the best speed rating (108) of any of these horses. Granted he finished a lousy second to Dominican in the Blue Grass Stakes, but given the ridiculously slow early pace on the polytrack surface at Keeneland, popular consensus is to toss that race out the window.

And who has Curlin beat? Teuflesberg?

I'm going to be out at Canterbury this evening. I'll conduct a straw poll of Derby favorites among the skells haunting the third floor.

Posted by Paul Demko at May 3, 2007 8:57 AM | Comments (2)

 

Queen Elizabeth AND little Dannielynn...

Filed under: Horse Racing

He had done a few good sketches, but so far we hadn't seen that special kind of face that I felt we would need for a lead drawing. It was a face I'd seen a thousand times at every Derby I'd ever been to. I saw it, in my head, as the mask of the whiskey gentry--a pretentious mix of booze, failed dreams and a terminal identity crisis; the inevitable result of too much inbreeding in a closed and ignorant culture. One of the key genetic rules in breeding dogs, horses or any other kind of thoroughbred is that close inbreeding tends to magnify the weak points in a bloodline as well as the strong points. In horse breeding, for instance, there is a definite risk in breeding two fast horses who are both a little crazy. The offspring will likely be very fast and also very crazy. So the trick in breeding thoroughbreds is to retain the good traits and filter out the bad. But the breeding of humans is not so wisely supervised, particularly in a narrow Southern society where the closest kind of inbreeding is not only stylish and acceptable, but far more convenient--to the parents--than setting their offspring free to find their own mates, for their own reasons and in their own ways.

--Hunter S. Thompson, The Kentucky Derby is Decadent and Depraved, Scanlan's Monthly, vol 1, no. 4, June 1970

Nobody writes alt-pop love songs about the demure yet pretty Sarbanes-Oxley audit girl and her pale grey eyes. Writing about music for so many years, I've been forced to think in metaphors, similes, and subjective language so much, that when an "objective" event like the Kentucky Derby rolls around, I have to jackhammer all of the meaningless bullshit out of my brains so that I can wring the truth from the filth soaked rag of the horseracing business. People have spent the past week pissing all over themselves about whether Teuflesberg will get into the big dance. Who gives a damn? Also, I've been waiting for the inevitable paen to long odds...8 column inches on why Tiago is a lot like Giacomo and all boat dreams will come true after 1 1/4 miles of magic. These horses could come in for you and pay big on a large bet...and then you'd be able to move Little Vito and his mom to Maine and help him get his life in order.

A 3/3 waltz about a sweaty girl in her big brother's old gym shorts buying brie at the deli counter won't inspire a love triangle fistfight on the dance floor of Lee's on a Friday night. The Derby is a literal race, and when there are 20 future glue bags shooting out of the gate at once, bulldog ugly is sometimes your best bet. Curlin hasn't lost. Nobiz Like Shobiz doesn't like to lose. Scat Daddy won the Florida, the only prep win that has any kind of statistical translation to Derby wins in recent history. Cowtown Cat doesn't lose. If you bet $2 to win on any of the four, you aren't going to get rich, but you'll most likely end up with a grin on your face, come 5 o'clock Saturday.

Fake tits are fake tits. So, let me get this straight, polytrack changes everything about the way a jockey guides his horse through a race, and affects the overall speed of the horse, but we're supposed to ignore that the trainer, jockey and horse all altered their focus and plied their trade differently, and assume that everything will be just fine come post time. Riiiiiight. Look, if you run your damn horse across a frozen pond for 3 months and then show up in Hawaii and expect him to eat poi and glide down the beach like a Greek epic, you're a bigger fool than George Steinbrenner.

This is without a doubt the biggest bunch of garbage ever to show up at Churchill Downs, magnified only by the fact that it will be a full field of garbage...20 horses crashing into the first turn like a bunch of inbred hillbillies in stock cars cramming themselves around an oval squawking at their pit bosses over the radio and kissing bumpers trying to get an edge. If you think too much, you'll lose your shirt; just look for types and pick the best horse of each and line them up in your boxes...or, if you're a gambler, calls 'em like ya sees 'em.

You need a speed horse that will set a nasty pace and fade at the end for a solid fourth without stopping dead still and throwing his jockey on some 300 pound reject from "The Sound and The Fury" slumped over the rail, drunk in the infield (Hard Spun). You need a strong horse who's used to running in the money but doesn't have the killer instinct to finish, a real bastard who won't let anybody crowd him (Street Sense). Then you need two horses that will battle for the win, and win is the operative word in the Derby. Winners win. Curlin, Scat Daddy, and Nobiz are the winners in this field. If Curlin wins, it will be like lightning striking. Why battle overwhelming statistics in your thinking? I mean, don't get me wrong, if you're part of that Giacomo crowd, then go for it. In fact, bring your money to the window in stacks of 2 dollar bills, give them a fistful of old Thom Jefferson, and tell them to kiss your ass as you blow cigar smoke in their faces while you swill the only mint julep you'll drink this year and subsequently throw up.

But this is all meaningless drivel to me and Demko, who will open the horsey season at Canterbury Park and watch the big race on a big screen, thousands of miles away from the real action. Opening day at Canterbury is like a valet parking stand on the world's busiest street, where thousands of drunks roar up in large loud cars and are handed a button instead of a stub; they spend the next half hour staring at the button, then staring at their own clothing, wondering where it fell off, never aware of how painfully obvious they are, swaying from the ankles in their intoxication, dangerously close to the heavy traffic nearby, only to angrily and confusedly discard the object and go in search of stronger drink after looking up for a moment and realizing they weren't the only ones burned by that bastard valet. Fuck it, it was only a button.

Finally, of course, Saturday will feature all sorts of last minute panic bets...Zanjero to show...Dominican, Chelokee, and Circular Quay to place...Demko, 24 hours in the klink for public intoxication. But these are really side bets for small amounts of money, meant solely to entertain bored gambling dilettantes like ourselves, not for wins, but for the pure adrenaline of it all. At the end of the day, the only true advice I have for you is to let someone else drive, and don't let the kids watch when Floyd Mayweather makes De La Hoya's head spin 360 degrees on its axis about the sixth round.

The Bets
Box Exacta: Scat Daddy and Nobiz
Superfecta: Nobiz-Scat Daddy-Street Sense-Hard Spun
Box Trifecta: Scat Daddy-Nobiz-Curlin over Scat Daddy-Nobiz
Win-Place-Show: Nobiz
Two ibuprofen, a Bloody Mary and a back pocket full of loser betting slips: Demko

Posted by Jack Sparks at May 1, 2007 11:26 PM | Comments (3)

 

What Demko knows after the Blue Grass Stakes

Filed under: Horse Racing

The Blue Grass Stakes from Keeneland was the kind of race that would make you turn around and start scanning the box seats for a smiling John Gotti, smoking a cigar and shaking hands with his associates. Watching the horses down the backstretch in this garbage race, you couldn't help but think to yourself that the fix was in. Five jockeys had their donkeys out for a casual afternoon stroll and they were all going to wait until the quarter poll to turn it on. At the post, Street Sense was at even money and Great Hunter was 2nd at 9-5. And the horsey wizards were falling all over themselves after the race trying to convince everyone that's exactly how it would have played out, had the race not been "paceless," which is just paddock code for "everyone shook hands and agreed not to actually race their 'racehorses' until the backstretch."

They shouldn't do things like this to Demko, who in addition to being an absolutely unrepentant degenerate gambler, is also an investigative journalist, with a real hard-on for St. Paul City Hall. He would have been pounding on the jockey room door after this race shouting, "Chris Coleman couldn't hide from me, and neither will you bastards!"

My own heart is so full of hate, I want to scratch all of these horses off the list. Just in case you're scoring at home, in a photo finish, Dominican beat Street Sense and Zanjero. But what DID we learn, if anything? One...Dominican out-kicked the others, which might be of note; the Derby is the longest race any of these nags will have run, so late steam is a desirable trait. Two...Zanjero absolutely hogged the rail; he not only kept the rest of the field off the rail, he also took it over and ran it 3 or 4 wide down the stretch, forcing them all way to the outside. If he were to get a good post position, you might look at 2 or 3 horses next to him and wonder whether they're going to get aced out. Three...Polytrack takes the furtive adrenaline of a desperate bet based solely on self-loathing out of horse racing because it slows the race to a crawl. Four...The "pace" horse, Teuflesberg, ended up fourth, but it was a very strong fourth, and he might be a sexy pick for a Superfecta, if you have a gambling problem, like Demko. Five...Don't bet the mortgage on Street Sense or Great Hunter; a loser is a loser.

In other news, Curlin beat absolutely nobody by 10 1/2 lengths in the Arkansas Derby. When I get down to some heavy action on the Derby, I'll examine his times and Beyer numbers, but this horse has run against the equivalent of the race scene in "The Quiet Man:" he's beat all the neighbor horses in a Sunday race over brunch and Irish Whiskey.

Posted by Jack Sparks at April 17, 2007 11:40 AM | Comments (1)

 

Degenerate alcoholic offers Kentucky Derby superfecta wagering advice

Filed under: Horse Racing

The voice on the other end sounded groggy. Demko was either in an opium den or incredibly bored with what he was doing.

"Are you watching the ponies motherfucker?" Small pause. "Oh, oh yeah those races are today aren't they?"

Having to remind Demko that the Wood Memorial, Illinois Derby, and Santa Anita were all running in the space of approximately one hour on one day, usually, would be like reminding Julia Roberts to brush her teeth. But there it was, a fish out of water.

Fortunately, I was on the case, because there's nothing more important than speculating on a horse race that's 4 weeks away and has no definite entrants.

Before yesterday afternoon, after the dust settled, the high rollers believed they were going to have all their best brain wizardry confirmed about Any Given Saturday, Cowtown Cat, and Liquidity. Leading up to the races, the biggest news was that Cowtown Cat had chickened out of the Wood to run against a watered down field at the Illinois. The talking heads made a lot of fuss about NoBiz Like ShowBiz wearing blinkers for the first time and cotton in his ears.

When reality set in at the Wood, we knew that Any Given Saturday has no kick. He tried to stalk the field and charge to the wire, but he was easily rundown by the winners. There is hate in Demko's heart for horses that can't finish, but there is tangible bile in his soul for a jockey that can't ride. Anyone with eyes could tell you that winner NoBiz is going to need a new jockey, or at least a major attitude adjustment for the one currently on his back, for him to compete at Churchill Downs. He busted out of the gate and looked like he was going to shoot his wad until he was visibly held back down the backstretch. Make no mistake, the horse won this race. Sightseeing made a nice charge at the end. As an aside, you can throw Summer Doldrums on the scrap heap after the Wood, as well.

The Illinois Derby was boring. Cowtown Cat basically led wire to wire, and wasn't really challenged, and he shouldn't have been. The only question was whether Cobalt Blue would make a run, and he didn't, stalking in third and then disappearing badly down the stretch. Cowtown Cat will end up being one of those horses that gets staked to 6-1 or 5-1 rolling into Kentucky because he wins, but he looks slow to me.

Here's where things get interesting for a degenerate gambler like Demko. The Santa Anita Derby looked like all the smart guys were going to be right. Liquidity, Sam P, and King of the Roxy ran the race like good horses do, keeping the pace, closing off the rest of the track for the field; and then something wonderful happened. A half brother of Giacomo--the 50-1 longshot that won the Derby a few years ago--came charging out of nowhere down the backstretch and smoked everybody. King of the Roxy tried to stay with Tiago but just didn't have it. If you've ever spent time with a bunch of drunks who make terrible bets--and I have--you know Tiago blasting down the backstretch in an otherwise non-descript field like this to gain entrance in the Derby is the best possible thing that could have happened. The handicappers won't fall for it, they'll post this mule at 30-1 and the twitchy crowd will drive him down to 9-2, a freak bet, a chance to tell everyone, "I told you so." Yummy.

But, what of the Derby, May 5th, and Club Taco on opening day at Canterbury Park?

This past Monday, Demko and I made a blood oath to bet Stormello 4th in a Superfecta, because he looks like the kind of horse that will try to run a wire job and fade nicely into a big payday for us. Outside of that, we know that Cobalt Blue probably shouldn't run Churchill Downs and NoBiz should probably get a new jockey. I'm not afraid of Any Given Saturday anymore either, unless someone tells me he had too much to eat for breakfast Saturday morning and just didn't have it. There's a few more donkeys left to tweak our guts at the Blue Grass and Arkansas. Unless one chickens out, Street Sense is going to dual Hard Spun next Saturday, so that will tell us which one them has the right stuff.

Right now, over one Bloody Mary, two eggs over easy with sausage and wheat toast, two Margaritas, 3 beers and one poorly executed hot dog, I would try very hard to convince Demko that the Derby will run Hard Spun (pictured above), Circular Quay, NoBiz Like ShowBiz, and Stormello.

Posted by Jack Sparks at April 8, 2007 12:57 PM | Comments (1)

 

More Derby musings

Filed under: Horse Racing

The redoubtable Garwood B. Jones, best known for his Wolves-related commentary in this spot, has sent forth some lengthy, informative (and undoubtedly misguided) commentary on Saturday's race. Because it's difficult to post links in the comments section (and because he sucked up to me by making an informed comment about poor Frankie Hejduk), I'm posting it as a separate item. Keep those comments coming! Soon I will post my superfecta pick so that all can be sufficiently warned away from those poor, doomed beasts.

Garwood B. Jones

Glad to see Demko's enthusiasm for the ponies spilling onto the venerable pages of the Balls! Blog.

Last year I barely kept my streak of winning money betting on the Derby alive. All I cashed was a $5 place bet on Closing Argument, but that $175 more than paid for a lot of other terrible betting, drinking, and processed meat consumption.

Jack has set up the race nicely except that I think there will be two "crap horse(s)" who are "going to come in ... and destroy everybody's superfecta." I haven’t decided on the second yet but I can tell you that one of them will be Jazil (Jazz-ull).

Jazil drew the inside post and is going to get a ground saving trip along the rail. In the Wood, he gobbled up Keyed Entry down the stretch like he was standing still. He would have rolled past Bob and John in another 50-100 yards. He looked like he had plenty of run in him. Without a win to his name in 2005 (he's only won once lifetime) that 2nd place showing vaulted him up to 17th in earnings and got him into the field. Though he hasn't hit triple digits yet, his beyers are going in the right direction and he seems to be improving and holding his own against quality horses. Here's what his handlers had to say after the Wood.

Jara is going to have a lot more to do in the Derby than he did in the slop at Aquaduct but if the pace battle that everyone is predicting sets up, Jazil's going to be flying at the finish. He won't likely go off at more than 30-1 but there is a huge amount of value there anywhere from 20-1 on up. He's trained by the same guy that trained Closing Argument last year, he's the only legitimate deep closer in a race that figures to set up for deep closers, and damn, if he doesn't looks great.

---
Now, I'm a value better, so I'm always looking for angles to "throw out" the chalk. I guess I'm inclined to believe that Lawyer Ron in the 17th position is dismissable at 4-1. The Arkansas Derby wasn't that great a field and he's raced 14 times. He’s got good tactical speed so he could avoid the crush to front but when was the last time a horse with 14 previous starts won the Derby?

I'm similarly going to pass on the California shippers. Brother Derek was impressive in the SA Derby but for much the same reasons as noted above by Andy, I'm leaving Derek, AP Warrior, and Point Determined out (though Brother Derek might find his way onto the bottom of my favorite exotic, the $1 partial tri-key).

I don't think you can leave Barbaro out of anything and in my book he's the most likely winner. His Florida Derby win is particularly impressive given that he started in the 10 hole at a track and distance that punishes outside posts (mile and one eighth races start super close to the first turn). He was bumped at the start, had to expend a lot of energy to get the lead, and still managed to drive to victory down the stretch. He probably ran an extra 50-60 yards more than Sharp Humor who had the rail and still won by a length and a half. He is fast, he's bred for distance, and he hasn't lost yet.

I also like what's happening with Sweetnorthernsaint (10-1) and Sinister Minister (12-1). Both are coming off huge G1 wins in The Illinois Derby and the Blue Grass respectively. Both have beyers going in the right direction and appear to be in the right part of their cycle. Sinister Minister’s 116 in the Blue Grass is the best beyer in the field. Now, the last horse to win the Derby after winning the Blue Grass was Strike the Gold way back in 1991, and Sinister Minister was a 9-1 shot in the Blue Grass when he just ran away from everyone. I wouldn't be chucking win bets on him if he goes off at less than 10-1 but he’s going to be in the lead, and that gives him a chance to hang in for a piece. Sweetnorthernsaint looks good, he's got 5 rising beyers, he burned it up in the morning, and has Desormeaux as a mount. Kent is a pretty good jockey, but evidently not an early morning guy.

I think, depending on which way the lines move, my final exotic fillers will be Bluegrass Cat (30-1) and Sharp Humor (20-1). Remember that Bluegrass Cat went off as better than a 2-1 favorite in the Blue Grass. While there’s plenty of things not to like about his recent record (he finished 20 lengths behind the Minister in his last race), the race sets up for him if he fires. That's a big "if" based on his last two, and a switch to journeyman mount Ramon Dimenguez is not promising, but someone’s got to be coming from behind and it might as well be him. Sharp Humor is really the enigma of the field for me. I don't know where he'll run or where he'll fit but I think he's got tactical speed and he's gritty (read the comments from his previous races and note use of the word "gamely"). His trainer said that he was "on the muscle" which didn’t mean much to me but followed it up by saying, "He is training about as well as any horse that I have brought into a race."

Well… There's 6 horses out of 20 to focus on. Bet 'em as you see fit and if you cash one on Jazil, I'll be somewhere on the ground floor with the plebes, looking for congratulatory Budweisers.

Posted by Paul Demko at May 4, 2006 3:58 PM | Comments (1)

 

Derby Day: half-baked ruminations on horseracing's finest day

Filed under: Horse Racing

One of the grandest days of the sporting calendar is upon us. On Saturday the 132nd Kentucky Derby will take place at Churchill Downs. Even better for local horseracing junkies, Canterbury Park opens its summer season that same day. In honor of this occassion, over the last couple of days I've conducted an email discussion with two renowned gamblers and jackasses, Jack Sparks and James "Taco" Martin. Hopefully this discussion can continue in the comments section below.

Jack Sparks:

HBO26 is showing "Bikini Chain Gang," I'm listening to "The 5 Levels of Drinking," by Larry Miller, I have 45 minutes until a multi-vendor conference call for my day job, I haven't really slept a lot in the last 4 days, and Demko and I have a half baked idea to discuss the Kentucky Derby in Balls!

This is where you learn the definition of the word "limits."

For instance, there are people who have fallen in love with a horse in the May 6th race who desperately pray that that horse doesn't have a limit of one and 3/16th's miles. The derby is a mile and a quarter, and if your horse is some kind of fucking freak that runs as hard as he can until he craps out 220 yards short of the wire, well that speaks for itself, doesn't it?

For whatever reason, I'm listening to "El Paso" by Marty Robbins, another example of limits. A) He didn't have to shoot that guy over Felina, and B) he didn't have to come back. It's the old trap, going back to the well once too often, getting greedy, thinking that passion and numbers will somehow equal success.

For instance, if Baffert gets 3 of 20 horses into the gate, you figure, "hey, 3 horses out of 20, he's gotta have a shot." This is pure folly. There are two stone cold rules to this chilly slab of pari-mutuel marble: 1) half these horses have no chance at all, and 2) "names is for tombstones baby...take this honky out back and waste him." Last year, a really shitty horse named Giacomo won the Derby because the rest of them all fucked off. Then Giacomo fucked off for the rest of the year. Under the right conditions, Baffert could have fucked up Secretariat.

No, this year's race is remarkable for the number of speed freaks in it who ARE ALSO getting odds to win. Pay attention here...usually in a big race like this there are one or two horses that "set the pace." These horses are beautiful...sprinters...give them a mile on turf and it looks like a fucking picture book on the replay monitor. They get out there, run like a bat out of hell, get caught at the end, and end up 3rd or 4th; if you do a little ciphering and box these guys into your exotic, you can clean up.

But this year's Derby has no less than 7 of these fuckers. I wouldn't bat an eye if a horse fell over dead on the backside next Saturday. They're going to break every record getting to 6 or 7 poles. Then
they're going to start falling off like junebugs flying into a zapper light.

YOUR job is complicated because 1) as God is my witness, one of these nags has a better than even chance of running wire to wire, 2) there are 2 or 3 stalkers in the group, one of whom is probably going to win it, and 3) some crap horse is going to come in between Place and 4th and destroy everybody's superfecta, a grandmother in Bugtussle is going to hit it and buy herself a brunette Jackie-O wig, with accompanying pill box hat.

All that being said, here are the 4 horses that Demko's going to talk me out of 5 minutes before post:

Sweetnorthernsaint--you want a closer that's going to have a mediocre number that can win you some real dough? Here's your guy.

Sinister Minister--crazy speed horse that's going to run 3rd or 4th, throw him in your box.

Lawyer Ron--the only horse in this race that's been forced to do a little running. He's been beating up on the Arkies, but he's still been running.

Brother Derek--the fastest horse in the race...can he go a mile and a quarter?

Finally, watch for the horse that the junkies jump off of ... by this I mean, there's a horse in this race that oughta win it on paper. But there isn't a single one of those people with the notebook the size of a phone directory, sitting in their own filth at a teleracing cubicle who's going to bet on him ... Hello, my name is Barbaro. Never lost, never really been challenged, good pedigree. Sounds beautiful, doesn't it? The television networks will run a story about how he eats too much and likes to take long naps.

Paul Demko:

None of these horses has ever run a 1 1/4 mile race. Look at their race histories. (You might have to register at Daily Racing Form, but it's free and highly worth your while.) In other words, you're attempting to figure out what these beasts might do under circumstances that they've never encountered before. What kind of absurdly foolish task is that?

Furthermore, the field is going to be monstrous, probably 20 horses, the max allowed at Churchill Downs. (The post draw will be televised live at 4 p.m. central on ESPN today.) These horses have never raced in a field this large and never will again. Once more: you're dealing with circumstances that these horses have never previously encountered. I ask again: What kind of absurdly foolish task is that? All kinds of strange shenanigans are likely to ensue. That's how a worthless future tub of Elmer's glue like Giacomo wins the Derby.

I'm a proven loser at this game. I can't pick a third-place finisher in a five-horse field. So the absurdity of me giving anyone advice about anything other than which horse is likely to be shot first is profound. Plus I missed most of the big prep races.

That's why I seek the counsel of people who supposedly know a lot more about this stuff than me. I think Jack has pretty much covered the favorites, so here are a couple of longshot possibilities.

Dan Illman makes a half-hearted case for why Keyed Entry (currently at 30-1 odds) might be worth tossing some bucks at. This horse has the best Beyer speed rating of the longshots and has shown some potential.

I'm more intrigued by Showing Up. He's only run in three races, but won each time. Andrew Beyer makes the case that if Barcley Tagg (trainer of 2003 Derby and Preakness winner Funny Cide) believes this horse belongs in the field then the beast merits watching.

Taco, can we convince you to add some thoughts to this steadily mounting heap of ignorance?

James "Taco" Martin:

I'm going for the money all the way this year baby! I can't imagine any situation where all the money was on two horses like the last few years.

Lots of speculation and hunches this year more then PPR's to go on. Any and all speculation is first subject to post position and IF any horse can get from his or hers gate to the first turn in good shape. Right away that is going to cut the 20 horse field to maybe 8. That's an insanely large field with crazy front running speed. I'd take odds that a pile up may even happen before they hit the first pole.

Everyone is predicting a lightning fast race which makes you think the first few turns are going to be a real mess. I'm looking for a horse that likes to keep pace behind the front runners and has a mighty finish. Some of these horse are going to run themselves out you got to think.

Long race with a lot of untested horse at this distance and so much speed makes me think that the jocks are going to be a even bigger factor then in most stakes races.

Barbaro is the only horse I've noticed that strikes me as it may one day be considered on of those special horses in history.

You can make solid cases for ten or more horses in this field. I will say I do agree with the Keyed Entry tip if those odds hold anywhere close to 30-1. I think you're going to see 7-10 horses going off at 5-1 to 12-1. Lot fewer long shots (25-1+) then last year. Chances are pretty slim that anyone is going to be able to score big on a win ticket but I'm betting all the payoffs should be above average. I watched all the pre-derby tune ups and have purposely not looked at any writers tips in the last two weeks. I'm going to mostly just react to the tote board. I don't want to fall in love with some hag I can't leave at the alter if the right odds show up three minutes to post. Then again I could be totally wrong (again). That's why we go, horse race handicapping keeps us humble.

It's a post time call if there ever was.

T.

Posted by Paul Demko at May 3, 2006 2:35 PM | Comments (24)

 

Bet the ponies

Filed under: Horse Racing

It's down to the final three weekends of racing at Canterbury Park. This Sunday is the "Festival of Champions," an annual event for the top Minnesota-bred horses. There's a slew of big money (by Canterbury standards) stakes races with a total purse of $320,000.

Entries haven't been finalized yet, but a few intriguing horses will definitely be somewhere in the mix. Wally's Choice (partially owned by Wally the Beerman), who's already won a $40,000 stakes race at Canterbury this season and has nearly $300,000 in lifetime winnings, will certainly be one beast to watch. According to track analyst Kevin Gorg, Wally's Choice will most likely face off against Key Issues. That horse has already had a mammoth season, winning the $60,000 Minnesota Derby and another $40,000 stakes race.

The race for top jockey looks to be just about over. With 13 racing days left, Seth Martinez has a commanding 79-70 win advantage over Derek Bell. If Martinez can hold on it will mark just the second time in six years that Bell has not been the top jock at Canterbury. (Martinez bested him in 2002 as well.)

Gorg's not ready to completely dismiss Bell's chances, though, noting that his jockey agent, Richard Grinder, will land him top mounts for the rest of the campaign. "It's going to be tough for Bell to catch him, but with Richard Grinder calling the shots you never want to count him out," Gorg reasons.

Among trainers Mac Robertson is smoking every other barn on the backside. He's got 13 more wins and double the earnings of his closest competitor, Jamie Ness. It will be Robertson's second-straight season at the top of the trainer standings.

Rachel Blount had an excellent piece this week in the Star Tribune about the mounting competition Canterbury faces from on-line betting.

And oh yeah: the first $5,000 gamblers through the gate on Sunday get a free "Crocrock" t-shirt, honoring the track's all-time winningest thoroughbred.

Posted by Paul Demko at August 17, 2005 12:48 PM | Comments (0)

 

Wally the Horseman

Filed under: Horse Racing

Saturday's Belmont Stakes doesn't seem to be generating a whole lot of enthusiasm. Folks have become spoiled in recent years with a surfeit of potential Triple Crown winners heading into the final leg, most recently Smarty Jones and Funny Cide.

But there also seems to be a general consensus that this year's Belmont field is a bit rank. A.P Arrow and Nolan's Cat, in particular, look more like candidates for the glue factory than the winner's circle. Then again, nobody was much talking about Birdstone last year prior to his upset victory.

Afleet Alex, after an incredible performance in the Preakness, is the overwhelming favorite. Even so, some publicity-starved jackasses continue to insist that jockey Jeremy Rose should be replaced. (Thanks to the redoubtable Jeff Johnson for the link.)

But even if you can't get stirred up about the Belmont, there's another reason to head out to Canterbury Park this Saturday. The seventh race, the $50,000 Brooks Field Stakes, which is set to go off a little before the Belmont, features a top-flight, 12-horse field of turf racers.

The slight favorite, at odds of 7/2, is Vazandar. The Minnesota-bred horse has already won two races at Canterbury this season.

Kevin Gorg, who handicaps races for the Star Tribune, likes Slew Slayer. The four-year-old gelding, currently going off at 5-1, is in from Arlington Park in Chicago. He's only won about $60,000, but has generally faced competition a class above what he'll see on Saturday.

But most intriguing is Wally's Choice, pegged at odds of 9/2. The four-year-old gelding had a monster 2004. Last summer at Canterbury he won both the Minnesota Classic and the Minnesota Derby, raking in more than $80,000 for the season.

Wally's Choice really turned heads, though, last November at the Oklahoma Derby. Going off at odds of 33-1, he rallied from last in the field down the stretch to capture the $168,550 stakes race.

In 17 lifetime races, Wally's Choice has posed in the winner's circle eight times and taken third place on three occasions. (Strangely the horse has never finished second.) 

But what makes Saturday's mount even more compelling is that it will be the first time that Wally's Choice has run on the turf. "His mother, L'Etoile Jolie, was a monster on the turf," notes Gorg.

And oh yeah: Wally's Choice is partially owned by Wally McNeil, better known as Wally the Beerman.

Posted by Paul Demko at June 9, 2005 4:07 PM

 

Malibu Moonshine is a lock to win the Preakness

Filed under: Horse Racing

Following the Kentucky Derby, the Washington Post's redoubtable racing scribe Andrew Beyer wrote an extremely cranky old-man screed about what a dismal race it was. He closed the column by pretty much accusing the entire 20-horse field of doping violations. The piece came off like the rantings of a man who just couldn't handle the fact that he'd been spectacularly wrong about the Derby.

Thankfully Beyer rebounds today with a persuasively argued handicapping of the 14-horse Preakness field. He's still oozing disdain for Giacomo (and pretty much every other three-year-old thoroughbred on the planet), but he makes a compelling case for why Afleet Alex is being overhyped and why Greeley's Galaxy and Closing Argument are the two most intriguing horses in the field.

Over in the Baltimore Sun, John Eisenberg has a swell column about a new Bud Greenspan documentary premiering today on ESPN Classic at 2 p.m CST. (It will air again tomorrow at 10 a.m. CST) The film details the career of 1941 Triple Crown winner Whirlaway. The mercurial colt is best known for walking out of the gate at the start of the Preakness--only to come back and trounce the field.

Personally I'll be pulling for King Leatherbury tomorrow.

Posted by Paul Demko at May 20, 2005 2:35 PM

 

Derby Day

Filed under: Horse Racing

For the first time ever Canterbury Park's opening meet will coincide with the running of the Kentucky Derby. It should make for a fabulous day out at the track. Post time is 1:30 p.m.

Bellamy Road is obviously the beast to beat in the 20-horse Derby field. The George Steinbrenner-owned thoroughbred tied a 32-year-old course record in winning the Wood Memorial by 17 1/2 lengths last month. That monster performance (warranting a stratospheric 120 Beyer speed rating) ensured that he'll go off as the favorite, currently at odds of 5-2. Following a week of impressive workouts at Churchill Downs, everyone seems to be a Bellamy Road believer. Daily Racing Form columnists Andrew Beyer and Steven Crist both predict the frontrunner will romp through the field. (You can read Beyer's take for free in the Washington Post.) The only knock on Bellamy Road is that he hasn't raced enough, just twice this year and five times total. Only one horse in the last 57 years--Sunny's Halo in 1983--has won the Derby in his third race of the year.

Afleet Alex is the sentimental favorite, currently at odds of 9-2. He barely survived as a newborn because his mamma didn't have enough milk to nourish him. He had to be weened on a Coors Light beer bottle. The horse's breeder is sick with cancer of the colon and liver. And Afleet Alex overcame a lung infection to crush the field in the Arkansas Derby.

The only other entrant drawing much acclaim is Bandini, the rambunctious sire of Fusaichi Pegasus. He won the Blue Grass Stakes and has tremendous potential, but is unpredictable.

A couple of other horses that I'm intrigued by. Buzzard's Bay won the Santa Anita Derby (usually considered the most prestigious Derby prep race), but can't get any respect. He's currently at 20-1, probably owing to a lackluster Beyer speed rating of 98. Greeley's Galaxy topped the Illinois Derby, but still didn't have enough earnings to make the cut for Churchill Downs. His owner ponied up an extra $200,000 to get him into the race. Greeley's Galaxy has the third best Breyer rating in the field, but is still going off at odds of 15-1.

Posted by Paul Demko at May 6, 2005 3:35 PM

 

Derby Days

Filed under: Horse Racing

The build-up to the Kentucky Derby hits full stride this weekend with the running of the Wood Memorial, the Illinois Derby and, most significantly, the Santa Anita Derby.

The big story at Santa Anita is Sweet Catomine. The big-ass filly and sire of super-stud Storm Cat is currently the 7-5 favorite. She's seeking to become just the fourth filly ever to win the Santa Anita Derby. There seem to be a fair number of naysayers, though, particularly given Sweet Catomine's draw in the two post.

George Steinbrenner's Bellamy Road is a slight favorite in the Wood Memorial, but this looks to be a wide-open field. Nobody seems much impressed with any of these horses.

The Daily Racing Form, of course, has scads of excellent Derby coverage, much of it free. Andrew Beyer, the dean of horse-racing scribes, is hyping a three-year-old named Blues and Royals.

Posted by Paul Demko at April 8, 2005 11:08 AM