MLB

Carlos Gomez Hits For The Cycle

Filed under: MLB

The Twins have been earning their way onto SportsCenter the last few days, in what is fast becoming a headline-heavy week for the club.

Just a night after getting no-hit for 8 1/3 by White Sox pitcher Gavin Floyd, the Twins followed up that sad display by stomping the Sox 13-1 in a game delayed nearly two hours by rain. The team now leads the Central Division by 1.5 games over Cleveland.

The last time a Twin hit for the cycle came compliments of Kirby Puckett, who accomplished the feat against the Oakland A's on August 1, 1986. Carlos Gomez was just 8 months old.

And Gomez' magnetic traits of youth were widely on display Wednesday night as the young center fielder went 4-6, raising his average 21 points, from .261 to .282.

Gomez homered to lead off the game against Sox starter Mark Buehrle, tripled against Buehrle in the fifth, doubled in the sixth, and then singled off of Sox reliever Ehren Wasserman in the ninth. The single, completing this "inverse cycle," ricocheted off of the pitcher's glove, and Gomez beat out an infield throw by shortstop Alexei Ramirez to assure the feat. Camera angles showing Gomez' sprint down the first base line also readily captured an electric Twins dugout.

Gomez then flashed a beaming smile as he made his way around the bases, scoring his second run of the night. Arriving back at the Twins dugout, he was mobbed by teammates and seemingly shared joyous battle tales with pitcher Livan Hernandez, whom it should be noted tossed a complete game, improving his record to 5-1 on the year.

Gomez cycle was the eighth in Twins history. The box score can be seen here.

Posted by Judd Spicer at May 8, 2008 8:20 AM | Comments (5)

 

Floyd's Near No-No

Filed under: MLB

25 year-old Gavin Floyd, whom the Twins defeated just eight days ago, survived some early control issues and a 4th inning unearned run before deftly settling in for the night, and rolling through the hot Twins lineup with a series of well-spotted fastballs and knee-locking breaking pitches. He worked fast, seemingly ready to deliver fresh pitches mere seconds after receiving the ball back from catcher A.J. Pierzynski.

Vying to become the 17th White Sox to toss a no-hitter, Floyd retired 16 Twins in a row at one point. Fox Sports' cameras focused on him often in the late-innings, showing the mop-topped righty with seemingly little stress on his face as his teammates let him be, alone on the bench.

Mauer, who also walked twice, laced his opposite field double to left center, past diving CF Nick Swisher. Sox Manager Ozzie Guillen then removed Floyd from the game allowing the pitcher a hefty standing roar from the announced Chicago crowd of 23,480. Bobby Jenks finished off the 7-1 Sox victory, recording the last two outs.

Floyd walked 3 Twins, and accrued 4 strikeouts.

To see the box, click here.

Posted by Judd Spicer at May 6, 2008 9:36 PM | Comments (16)

 

Heating Up

Filed under: MLB

Fresh off of an impressive 5-0 homestand that saw the Twins take two from Chicago and three from Detroit, the boys now visit the White Sox for three on the South Side. The series begins what should be a most telling stretch of 20 games in 20 days against tough competition that includes visits from Boston and Toronto, before heading west to take on defending N.L. champ Colorado.

But signs are positive, as evidenced by our first-place standing and two-game lead over the Sox. As losers of six straight, the White Sox haven't found May flowers. Rather, their atmosphere has been showered with some much-publicized Ozzie Guillen spittle, and instead of describing their plight and problems as internal, I think it's safer to say that the White Sox are blowing up.

Things are looking far sunnier here on the home front. Sunday's inspiring win versus the Tigers marked the Twins' biggest comeback since July 15, 2002. The result of overcoming that 6-run deficit six years ago? The club went on to win 15 of their next 18.

But before looking at where we might be going, let's focus on what took us to today. Here are both some team, and individual players numbers that we can focus on during this key stretch that is the next three weeks:

Player:

-Joe Mauer is finding his swing. With multi-hit games in each of the last three, Mauer has soared to #2 in the A.L. batting race with a .333 average. What's more, of Mauer's ten multi-hit games in '08, the Twins have won seven. In games that Joe has gone hitless, the team is 2-5.

-In games that Carlos Gomez has multiple steals, the Twins are 3-0.

-Of the team's 16 wins, Justin Morneau has been on base in fourteen of those contests. In our 14 losses, Morneau has 0 hits in six of those games.

-Nick Punto has appeared in 19 games thus far. The Twins have won 63% of those.

-Mike Lamb has played in 14 of our 16 wins. Of those 14 ballgames, he has hits in 8. In addition, Lamb has appeared in 11 of our 14 losses. Of those 11, he has gone hitless in 7.

-The club is 4-1 for games in which Delmon Young has stolen a base.

-The Twins are 6-2 when Brendan Harris has multiple hits.

-When Jason Kubel has an extra base-hit, the team is 6-1.

Here is the Twins' record for contests in which the following relief pitchers appear:
-Pat Neshek: 9-5
-Dennys Reyes: 6-6
-Matt Guerrier: 6-7
-Jesse Crain: 3-7
-Juan Rincon: 3-7
-Brian Bass: 2-6

(Note that this tracks the outcome of games in which said pitcher appeared as an individual, and does not account W/L when they've appeared in tandem)

-Joe Nathan is earning his new contract extension, with a stellar 11 saves in 11 chances. Also, he's given up just 7 hits in 10 innings pitched, with a lone run allowed all year (that coming in a rare non-save appearance).

Team:

-While the club is 13-2 when leading after 7 innings, we're 0-11 when trailing after 7.

-The club has hit just 2 Home Runs after the 7th inning all season (extra innings included).

-The pitching staff has allowed an MLB-low 73 walks. While the staff's home ERA is 2.92, the away number balloons to 5.77.

-After 30 ballgames played, the 3rd inning seems to be the focal point as our guys have an overall inning-best .316 AVG and .381 OBP in said inning; furthermore, foes are hitting an opponent-best .322 with a .366 OBP in the 3rd.

-The team is 5-0 on Saturdays.

-Over the last seven days, the Twins have hit .293 as a team, coupled with an On Base Percentage of .346.

These last numbers should translate well over the next three days, as the Twins hit .319 as a team in their series at Chicago earlier this year, and in 2007 hit a very solid .292 as a team a Cellular Field. That accounted for their top team away-average within the Central Division.

Here are the projected pitching match-ups for today, Wednesday and Thursday:

Tuesday: RHP Nick Blackburn (2-1, 3.52 ERA) vs. RHP Gavin Floyd (2-1, 3.16 ERA)
Wednesday: RHP Livan Hernandez (4-1, 4.43) vs. LHP Mark Buehrle (1-3, 4.42)
Thursday: RHP Kevin Slowey (0-1, 8.10) vs. LHP John Danks (2-3, 3.12)

Posted by Judd Spicer at May 6, 2008 3:11 PM | Comments (4)

 

The Jo-Jo Equation, Part 2

Filed under: MLB

In one of my initial entries this season, I introduced the "Jo-Jo Equation," whereby I'll provide the periodic stat tracker of the factious trade that sent 2-time Cy Young winner Johan Santana to the Mets for four MLB-unprovens. One of the four, Carlos Gomez, is doing his damndest to make Twins fans forget Santana, both with his unhinged legs, and his occasionally-unhinged head. Gomez leads the AL in steals (11), is tied for the team-lead in hits (27), but also holds the dubious honor of leading the club in strikeouts (25 K's in 102 official at-bats, with just 2 walks).

Here's the stat tracking equation presented in that previous post:

-AAA Rochester
Pitching: 1/2 point for a win, a strikeout, or a save.
Hitting: 1/2 point for each total base, a stolen base, or an RBI.
Fielding: 1/2 point for an assist, and a negative 1/2 point for an error.

-Below this level, all point totals are worth 1/3. (Even though the AA level is more about grooming the MLB prospects, rarely is the jump made from here to the Big Show).

-For all Major League numbers accrued, full points are awarded/deducted in the same areas.

And I also added the caveat: "Now, there are no doubt another 589 statistical categories that could be implemented here to further examine and compare Santana with the 4 fellas now on our side -- but let's stick to the basics, I say, and see how the tally comes out."

That said, let's compare the numbers-

Mets (14-12)

Johan Santana-
Pitching: 3-2, 39 Strikeouts
Fielding: 0 errors, 7 Assists
Hitting: 4-15 (.267), 3 2B- 7 Total Bases

Twins (13-14)

Carlos Gomez-
Hitting: 11 Steals, 7 RBI, 27-102 (.265), 6 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR- 38 Total Bases
Fielding: 1 Error, 2 Assists

Twins Minor Leaguers
AAA Rochester
Philip Humber-
Pitching: 1-3, 14 Strikeouts
Fielding: 1 Error, 4 Assists

Kevin Mulvey-
Pitching: 2-2, 29 Strikeouts
Fielding: 0 Error, 6 Assists

(High) A Fort Myers
Deolis Guerra-
Pitching: 2-1, 19 Strikeouts
Fielding: 0 Error, 3 Assists

Totals:

Santana: 56 Points

Our dudes: 88 Points

And lastly, as a series of asides today, here's a little medley of sporting chances that will surely make for some sound weekend cocktail conversation:

1. SI.com/CNN recently released their "Fan Survey of MLB Ballparks," with categories and rankings that include Food, Fan Intelligence, Promotions and Affordability. Note that while the Twins/Dome finished with a suspect 26th Rank (out of 30), we did finish high in the Affordability section (7th). Despite 2 World Series wins in a five-year stretch, however, our History & Tradition Rank was an ugly 27th.

2. There was a great story of sportsmanship to come out of the NCAA women's ranks this week. The ball may not be hard, but these ladies aren't soft --it's really worth reading.

3. Finally, as I've been preparing a baseball book review for this month, I thought I'd toss out a few solid baseball reading recommendations to accompany both the hammock and the gin that are soon to find backyard your dwellings-

-My Greatest Day in Baseball by John P. Carmichael (and others)

-The Umpire Strikes Back and Strike Two by Ron Luciano and David Fischer

-Jackie Robinson: A Biography by Arnold Rampersad

-Fair Ball: A Fan's Case for Baseball by Bob Costas

-The Catcher was a Spy: The Mysterious Life of Moe Berg by Nicholas Dawidoff

-Joe Torre's Ground Rules for Winners by Joe Torre and Henry Dreher

-Sandy Koufax: A Lefty's Legacy by Jane Leavy

or, should you be in more of a listening mood, try:

-The Ernie Harwell Audio Scrapbook (for a few extra dollars, Ernie'll autograph the box for you, too)

UPDATE: The Star Tribune reported at approximately 4:15 p.m. CST today that the older brother of Twins Manager Ron Gardenhire has unexpectedly passed in Oklahoma. Mike Gardenhire was just 55 years old. According to the report, Ron Gardenhire will travel to Oklahoma to be with his family. Scott Ulger will manage the club versus Detroit this weekend. Our well-wishes go out to Gardy and his family.

Posted by Judd Spicer at May 4, 2008 7:04 PM | Comments (15)

 

The Demotion of Liriano

Filed under: MLB

There's no arguing with the numbers. Francisco Liriano's much-trumpeted return to the bigs ended with an unceremonious and ill-timed cymbal clash after he went just 2/3 of an inning and gave up 6 earned to the A's back on 4/24, bringing his 2008 totals to an unseemly 0-3, with an 11.32 ERA in three starts. Two days later, he was sent back to AAA Rochester.

Less than 30 games into this season, I've already devoted great space herein to "The Franchise," having said both that he'd need to win 25 for the club to be truly competitive, and that his return from Tommy John should initially be viewed as an exercise in form, rather than instant result.

And while the show is surely no place to go to school, not a training ground to learn on-the-job, I was somewhat surprised at the alacrity of the hook the Twins exercised, thinking that --despite the overt negativity of his numbers-- Liriano may have (and perhaps should have) been given at least 5 starts before a move was made. Furthermore, I was also surprised that no one in either the Twins ranks, nor within the pages of the Sports dailies, made any contrary reaction. It all felt so very accepted. And what has been reported, somewhat buried behind the blunt force of the crappy stats, is that Liriano could be gone for a lengthy period of time.

Maybe I'm still married to the 2006 image of Liriano in all his greatness and dominance. It's tough not to be. And so, I'll claim that as the onus for the following list of reasons why Liriano should have remained with the club for at least two or three more starts:

1. Alternatives: Neither right-handed relief pitcher Brian Bass (4.67 ERA in 7 appearances), nor recently-recalled Bobby Korecky are impact arms. Bass is a career journeyman who has made for a nice story but has shown that there's a reason why he has all those stickers on his suitcase. Korecky is a well-touted prospect (at age 28), although he's made his name as more of a closer. I think we have a guy there.

2. Youth Without Youth: To borrow the title of Coppola's latest, Liriano is no doubt young at the age of 24, but really not that young. In the A.L. alone, on Active, 25-man rosters, there are currently 19 pitchers who are younger than "The Franchise."

3. History: Liriano has some history with shitty starts. Looking back to 2005, when he started 4 games, going 1-2, giving up 14 runs and 7 walks in 21.2 innings.

4. AAA Track Record: While the 2007-2008 ascension of former Rochester starting hurlers Scott Baker, Nick Blackburn, Kevin Slowey and Boof Bonser shows promise, there is also a track record of starting arms coming via our AAA-affiliate that were not to be. Here is a brief list of those untoward chestnuts from days of yore:

2003- Mike Nakamura, Adam Johnson
2004- Brad Thomas, J.D. Durbin, Joe Beimel, Carlos Pulido, Seth Greisinger
2005- Travis Bowyer, Dave Gassner
2006- Willie Eyre, Matt Garza
2007- Julio DePaula

5. Thinking Man's Game: Invoking memories of fictional luminary Crash Davis, Gardy recently quoted Liriano as saying that, prior to his injury he "didn't think, I just threw." Let's hope this thing isn't mental. But should this be the (head) case, I've checked with both the Twins and Rochester and have learned that neither club employs a sports psychologist on-staff. Yet, should he still be in the Show, perhaps Liriano could consult Scott Baker's "performance coach," whom he has credited with providing him with "a change of perspective."

6. Timing: While it's far, far too early to count the club out of anything, the fact the it's not yet May means that some rocky starts aren't coming at a pivotal time. When he does come back later in the season, that's when the games will carry more weight.

Lastly,

7. Health: He's not hurt. There has been no mention of pain or discomfort.

Today, the Twins are 11-14, heading into a two-game home series with first place Chicago and all the attitude that comes with this rivalry. Tomorrow, Francisco Liriano is scheduled to go for Rochester against Pawtucket before 4,500 fans. Let's hope that his recall, and his confidence, return with all the celerity of that 2006 slider.

Posted by Judd Spicer at April 29, 2008 9:20 AM | Comments (13)

 

Now is the time! Now is the time?

Filed under: MLB

It is perennially at this juncture of the baseball season that I feel some anxiety over the Twins' performance. Of course, the campaign is merely 21 games young. However, with both the Wild and the Wolves now done for the year, with the NFL draft conducted this weekend, and with SportsCenter pumping the leviathan popularity of the NFL our way as early as July, I've developed an unrest that the Twins need to win now to truly magnetize their fan base, ride the wave of early-season buzz, and maintain sports page headlines.

Furthermore, summer competition for fans has become more intense over the last decade. The St. Paul Saints remain popular and begin at the end of the month (although the Twins ensuing open-airness will surely grab some of their fans). Then there's a sport that I don't get (MN Swarm) that has been drawing upwards of 11,000 fans and has the playoff potential to bleed into mid-May, and a sport that I don’t personally care for (MN Thunder) that has both men's and women's teams that play heavily in the summer months, with the former's season going long into September.

And so, I worry. But I shouldn't. Because after poring over a sample of some Twins attendance numbers, I soon learned that my concern was misguided. The following -- from 2002-07-- charts the average attendance for the 7 Twins' home games that follow the closure of whichever winter sport concluded latest (after day of date provided), compared with average attendance for the 7 Twins home games following the completion of the first Vikings pre-season game (after day of date provided). Also noted are both the Twins respective records at the onset of both points in each year, and if the club made the playoffs in said season.

2002, (4/29/02):
Record: 15-11
Average Attendance: 15,312

(8/11/02)- Playoffs
record: 70-49
Ave. Atten.: 30, 607
% increase of 99.9

2003, (5/17/03)
Record: 24-18
Ave. Atten.: 22,572

(8/10/03)-Playoffs
Record: 60-57
Ave. Atten.: 29,648
% increase of 31.3

2004, (6/1/04)
Record: 28-23
Ave. Atten.: 16,442

(8/15/04)-Playoffs
Record: 64-53
Ave. Atten.: 31,435
% increase of 91.2

2005, (4/21/05)
Record: 10-6
Ave. Atten.: 23,319

(8/13/05)
Record: 59-57
Ave. Atten.: 29,559
% increase of 26.8

2006, (4/20/06)
Record: 7-8
Ave. Atten.: 15,985

(8/15/06)-Playoffs
Record: 69-49
Ave. Atten.: 37,315
% increase of 133.4

2007, (4/20/07)
Record: 10-6
Ave. Atten.: 21,488

(8/11/07)
Record: 58-58
Ave. Atten.: 32,579
% increase of 51.6

And while there are no doubt piles of additional factors that play into the disparity of numbers (e.g., level of visiting competition, weather, local events, lake homes, soccer, sunburn), the overwhelming increase in attendance percentages largely suggest that Dome seats will be far more inhabited come August whether we're winning, losing, or just average.

My early-season neurosis is for naught. Shit, did I leave the iron on?

Posted by Judd Spicer at April 24, 2008 9:14 AM | Comments (11)

 

Air Fair? Rochester to Minneapolis

Filed under: MLB

The Twins have an unofficial rule regarding AAA call-ups from Rochester that essentially guarantees a position player will be in the starting lineup for the first game for which he is eligible. Which, I've long felt, is a good thing: A young fella doesn't have time to let the nerves fray, day-after-day, watching the starters, and waiting for his chance to play. You get up, you get in.

That's the Twins way. But is it a good way? After watching 3B Brian Buscher's pedestrian 2008 debut on Sunday (1-for-4 with a suspect toss to second in a failed 8th-inning double play attempt), I got to wondering why our call-ups rarely, if ever, seem to make the proverbial splash upon arrival to the big club.

Buscher's debut follows those of fellow arrivals Denard Span (2 hits in his first 3 games) and Francisco Liriano (0-2; 6.52 ERA; 10 walks) in 2008. And while I've written in this space that Liriano's initial starts should be viewed as an exercise in form, these dubious debuts, collectively, got me to thinking that, "Rochester, New York is a long damn way from Minneapolis, MN."

Sure, these guys are used to travel in many respects. And true, the lack of gaudy stats could be attributed to either the aforementioned nerves (even if these guys aren't chewing seeds on the bench), or to the simple facet of advanced opposition- but, as a point of consideration, here's a list of distances between all MLB teams and their respective AAA locations (from closest to furthest):

1. Seattle- 34 Miles
2. Boston- 44 Miles
3. Detroit- 59 Miles
4. Philadelphia- 62 Miles
5. Colorado- 70 Miles
6. Oakland- 81 Miles
7. Cincinnati- 106 Miles
8. Arizona- 121 Miles
9. New York Yankees- 133 Miles
10. Houston- 168 Miles
11. Kansas City- 184 Miles
12. San Francisco- 187 Miles
13. Cleveland- 193 Miles
14. Texas- 212 Miles
15. Baltimore- 240 Miles
16. Toronto- 243 Miles
17. L.A. Dodgers- 270 Miles
18. St. Louis- 283 Miles
19. Chicago Cubs- 333 Miles
20. Pittsburgh- 259 Miles
21. Washington- 417 Miles
22. Atlanta- 534 Miles
23. Milwaukee- 562 Miles
24. L.A. Angels- 689 Miles
25. Tampa Bay- 701 Miles
26. Chicago White Sox- 797 Miles
27. Minnesota- 1009 Miles
28. San Diego- 1084 Miles
29. New York Mets- 1324 Miles
30. Florida- 1960 Miles

As while it surely should be noted that AAA call-ups may not necessarily be going to straight to their club's hometown, it goes without saying that -- based in the unbalanced schedule most-often keeping team's within their division -- clubs that aren't playing at home are most likely playing in the same region of the country.

Again, some food for thought. Something to chew on when the seeds make the cheek raw.

Posted by Judd Spicer at April 21, 2008 7:17 PM | Comments (15)

 

Baseball 101: Carlos Gomez and the bunt

Filed under: MLB

Fifteen games into our young season, new CF Carlos Gomez is looking most comfortable in his new environs, as evidenced by his sound batting average (.262), his confident body language manning center field (0 Errors; 1 Assist), and in oft-demonstrating his well-documented speed.

Gomez, in fact, leads the majors with 9 steals (having been caught just once).

But while we're collectively enjoying the youngster's celerity and flash, it needs to be noted that, should Gomez truly grow to be one of the league's top leadoff men (especially in the A.L.), he will no doubt need to refine two very specific skills: hitting the ball to right field and bunting

Here in the Bread Basket -- as Gomez will surely come to learn -- we're big on the basics, the fundamental foundations of baseball. And although Gomez reached based with a bunt single last night, it seems that most conversations I've had regarding the kid involve his present inability to lay down a sacrifice bunt -- intentionally giving up his at-bat to move along a base runner.

As a longtime coach, here are some of the basic tenets of bunting I've passed along to my ballers:

#1: It's a sac bunt. You know you're going to lay it down, as do the bulk of your opponents. So square early, by pivoting both feet toward the pitcher in an athletic position with knees bent. (Some coaches instruct you to move your back foot around to parallel with the front, so the chest is fully facing the pitcher. I never liked this, as it runs the risk of stepping on the plate and thereby being called out by rule should the ball be put in play).

#2 Slide the top hand up toward the barrel, performing a "Fonzie" with the bat resting on all curled fingers, and the thumb raised. The lower hand acts as axis. The upper hand regulates the feel, or touch.

#3 Get the bat out in front of the body, with the barrel tilted up and the handle down. A ball bunted employing this angle will greatly enhance downward movement, while also greatly reducing the chance of a pop-up.

#4 While reacting to the pitch, use the knees to direct the necessary height of the bat position -- not the arms. The arms should remain in place, extended. We have less control of placement when the bat is too close to our chest.

#5 Watch the ball make contact with the bat- focusing the eyes on the barrel.

#6 Be soft with the hands. It's okay to allow the force of the ball to impress the bat back toward you slightly, creating english and touch. We don't want a ball bunted with too much force, going right back to the pitcher or respective corner infielder. Don't "punch" at the ball, allow it to come to your ready hands.

#7 Run like Hell.

Here are a few examples of both good and untoward bunting:

I don't like this guy. Note the poor angle of the barrel. This ball is certain to be popped-upward. In addition, the grip of his top hand is more Potsy than Fonzie. An 85-mph fastball won't do any favors for those exposed knuckles.

This guy is far better. The bat is tilted properly, and top handed is masked, and look at where the eyes are focused.

Young Gomez has already shown us a great deal in his first month as a Twin. If such promise is indicative of future results, this too shall come in time.

Lastly, as an homage to our greatest bunter of modern day, please enjoy this super-chill and romantic tribute to Omar Vizquel:

Blogger's Note: On a very personal level, the greatest congratulations go to my little brother (a fine bunter in his own right) who just this morning learned that he passed the MN Bar Exam. Way to go, kid.

Posted by Judd Spicer at April 18, 2008 5:56 AM | Comments (11)

 

The Return of Liriano

Filed under: MLB

Pre-game: The Kansas City forecast calls for 45 degrees, following a series of early-morning flurries. At approximately 1:10 p.m., Francisco Liriano will make his first MLB start in nearly twenty months following Tommy John surgery. In recent days, AAA Rochester manager Stan Cliburn, prior to learning that "The Franchise" would be called up to start, told reporters that he didn't feel Liriano was quite ready for the task, following the lefty's bulky 7.56 ERA in two minor league starts.

But ready or not ... Hell, from my vantage, it's time to remove the kid gloves and replace them with spit and leather. Personally, I'm all for patience when it comes to injury =- but in this instance, the time is now. Twenty months is considered to be at the longer end of waiting periods between MLB starts following Tommy John, and given that the club has won three straight to ascend the .500 mark at 6-5 (without our bats really going yet), let's keep the mojo moving, I say, ride the early wave, and enjoy what days we have with a winning mark before the tide of Detroit, the White Sox, Boston, Toronto, and Colorado provides the undertow to begin May.

What we should focus on today is not so much the proverbial End, and opposed to the Means. Countless hours, away from the Big Stage, have been spent refining Liriano's delivery. If he goes 5 today and gives up three or four runs, that's fine. It's how he looks in doing so that we should be mindful of.

Considering such intense magnification of mechanics, I thought it wise to revisit some recent reading I'd done on the great Sandy Koufax's opinions (from Jane Leavy's A Lefty's Legacy) as pertaining to proper pitching mechanics. Here area few excerpts of what another legendary southpaw had to say:

"Everybody who performs an athletic event of any kind is a system of levers. You can't alter what the bones do. If you can make the bones work, the injuries to the soft tissue will be a lot less. It's when guys are in a bad position and now they try to make the muscles do something to compensate for the bad position that they injure themselves . . . You gotta do what the bones do."

Today, should those aforementioned countless hours of behind-the-scenes work a have paid off, we should look for the following from Liriano's delivery:

-A slight turn and torque in his initial motion
-Followed by his upper body out over his leg just after release
-Concluded with a less-violent body crossover to complete the deliver

Such information was gleaned, in part, from a great article/diagram by the Pi Press' Kelsie Smith in a recent piece on Liriano and pitching coach Rick Anderson, although I also feel confident in identifying -- based on my own baseball background -- that the 2006 version of Liriano, while brilliant, was also flawed in that he was employing too much upper-body versus leg power, and that his barbaric finish, while offering flair and intimidation, lacked the polish required for the long and prosperous career we collectively envision for such a rare talent.

To further illustrate the "old" Liriano, here is some video of him in his 2006 form:

Postgame: The Twins lost Liriano's return 5-1, and the lefty's line worked out in the following form:

IP H R ER BB SO HR
4.2 6 4 4 5 4 0

But still, I felt we saw some of the things we needed to view to feel confident in his return to the Bigs. While the 5 walks were sticky, his 4 K's stood out, as did his overall body language on the mound. He appeared neither nervous, nor apprehensive, tossing his slider with some authority, and battling a few Royals in what became victorious showdowns for the good guys.

As per the aforementioned mechanics, I didn't really pick up on much of a change in the onset of his motion, although I think it was readily apparent that the follow-through was far more tame than what we saw in '06. This is a good sign, maybe a great one for things to come, as that finish was most seemingly the onus of the ligament issues. This "new" finish appeared far gentler on the young man's body, had some newfound polish, and was, at times, quite effective.

All great journeys (or re-routes) require some kind of beginning.

Here's a photo of Liriano from today:

Blogger's Note: I'll make haste in concluding my report on Mexican prospect Jorge Gomez Luis Rivas Gomez. After seeing him toss for close to an hour -- I extended the portly, albeit largely talented unknown a contract for which my betters at C.P. had provided authority. For legal purposes, I cannot divulge dollar amount. Yet, although the money was earnest, Gomez declined, insisting that a codicil be added in which he would be allowed take Diablo Cody out for dinner. After a series of heated calls back to the States, I ultimately swam back to my hotel that night with my lovely assistant, leaving Gomez' unsigned contract floating aimlessly with the unchained tides of the Pacific . . ..

Posted by Judd Spicer at April 13, 2008 8:54 AM | Comments (19)

 

Bill James: were Puckett and Gaetti juicers?

Filed under: MLB

Bill James is a legend among baseball analysts, an iconoclast unafraid to submit all ideas (including his own) to rigorous tests. He's also not afraid to skewer a sacred cow or two, which is good.

Mostly.

In his new book, The Bill James Gold Mine 2008, he slyly suggests that a few local heroes may have been powered by more than Wheaties.

While writing about atypical seasons, James notes that Kirby Puckett went from hitting zero home runs over 128 games in 1984 and four homers over a full season in 1985 to 31 the ensuing year. This was at the same time teammate Gary Gaetti was experiencing a power spike of his own.

You can read the full item and a critical take at the blog Bugs and Cranks. James writes this:

Two of the greatest home run under-producers of all time were teammates: Kirby Puckett and Gary Gaetti in 1984. Puckett hit no home runs (-16), Gaetti hit only 5 (-19). Suggesting the possibility that the Twins’ two World Championships may have been aided by their team being among the first to discover…well, I’d better not go there. Nor will I point out that Gaetti was bald and had acne and Puckett died young.

Holy irresponsible speculation, Batman!

I'd break down all of the reason this isn't necessarily a logical conclusion to draw even if you buy the premises. But I'd rather point out a broader fact of this whole steroids issue.

Tarring players with the "steroids" brush without real evidence is silly and dangerous, as I wrote extensively three years ago, when this whole flap started with Jose Canseco. Parts of that article looks a touch naive in retrospect, given that Canseco turned out to have the goods on certain players. I firmly stand behind its larger points, though: that this kind of speculation is dangerous and opens innocent players up to smears based on nothing more than "well, he did have zits."

Let me state the obvious: of course there are steroid users in baseball. No one doubts that. But it is unwise and unfair to let that truism kick critical analysis out the window.

James knows this, of course, and is just trying to be provocative. And it's a great thing to have smart people that are willing to take on taboo topics. But in this case, raising an issue this emotional about a player who can no longer defend himself -- being dead and all -- is in poor taste.

Posted by Jeff Shaw at April 11, 2008 8:10 AM | Comments (4)

 

Wire from Acapulco

Filed under: MLB

It appears -- from this distance here in Mexico -- that our favorite ballclub is playing akin to my golf game earlier this morning. That is, all over the damn place. At 3-5, after taking back-to-back games from the Royals to ascend to .500, the boys took the inverse route and have dropped two straight.

Nonetheless, I worry not from holiday in Acapulco, nor would I be worrying should I be in the comforts of my own town because in my mind, this is the expectation we should collectively have for the Twins. To be upset over an untoward beginning would be to believe that we´re not in store for a season, and a summer, that will most likely see of favorite club streak and battle and scrap and putz their way to about, well, .500.

But there do appear to be some encouraging signs, some early answers to early-season questions. I´m highly enthused about the start for young Carlos Gomez with his .333 average, to go along with 5 steals and no errors in a stadium that is generally a tough place to play and gauge for newcomers, whether they be foreign or domestic. Furthermore, the .290 start for Delmon Young is also a good sign, although he´ll surely have to pick up the pace if he expects to near his 38 doubles from last year. Just a lone extra-base hit from his 5 spot in the order is of slight concern at this stage, although it likely would improve his stats if Morneau were presently instilling a little more fear in pitchers. Lastly, from a hurler standpoint, I like the looks of Livan´s 2-0 beginnings from the gates, just as I´m surely not alone in being readily encouraged by Nick Blackbeard´s 2.85 ERA in 12 innings pitched. Rest assured that the deeper Nick goes into games, the further I´ll take any pirate refererence that fits said performance.

And speaking of sailors, I should note that down here in the Mexican Leagues, Yucatan is off to a sweet start with a league-best 14-3 record. In addition, Julio Franco is still balling down here, playing for Quintana Roo (Cancun) allegedly at the age of about 49, and hitting a solid .309. According to reports I read in The News out of Mexico City, fella is still looking for one more MLB gig. This same paper, it should be noted, also informed me that just 10 Mexicans are playing ball at the MLB level (and not all of those guys are of 100% Mexican descent).

Lastly, speaking of Mexican ballers, I´d like to update that a few days back I traveled upcoast, then downriver, to finally get a first-hand look at that highly touted Jorge Gomez Luis Rivas Gomez whom I have mentioned in previous posts. After taking the C.P.-funded truck north for about an hour and forty-five minutes, I then submerged and snorkeled east for about twenty-minutes (with the Jugs gun and Wilson mitt in water-proof confines) along with my lovely assistant before reaching Gomez´ hometown. After being welcomed with a large lunch and an orange Jarritos soda compliments of his cousins, we were then taken to a vacant field via horse, whereupon Gomez was found warming up. I approached him earnestly and introduced myself. Although I didn't say anything at the time, I will mention in this space that the guy is huge. And I don´t mean tall -- rather he's quite portly, going at least 275 lbs. And also very short, very short -- maybe 5-4´. He makes a most intriguing portrait when compared with his peers. And he´s also quite vain -- should my Spanish be up to par, he told me that he has no interest in playing Mexican ball, or even Minor League American ball for that matter. All it he wants is the Show.

After I strapped on some knee-guards, placed on my Wilson mitt, and my lovely assistant got the Jugs gun afoot -- I soon learned the source of such confidence ...

Posted by Judd Spicer at April 9, 2008 12:20 PM | Comments (1)

 

LOL Naming Rights: Call it Paul Wellstone Park

Filed under: MLB

Internet domain registrations offer a window into potential Twins stadium names. The team has parked 48 Web domains in advance of inking what is certain to be a lucrative naming deal. Most of these will never get a sniff, but there are clear frontrunners.

The first name cited in that Business Journal story? Land o' Lakes Field. That's right, ye fluent speakers of Internet: LOL Field.

This will not stand. We must not let the green, green grass of home be sullied with the tendrils of l33t speak. However noble you find the art of butter, that company's name has been swamped in meaning by the International Network of Worldwide Computers.

Don't feel bad, though, Land o' Lakes people. My entire industry has been thrown into disarray by the Web. So it could be worse.

Still, we seek alternatives. Other potential names, a few even serious, after the jump.

5. Bert Blyleven Ballyard. Normally, you have to wait until someone has passed on before you name a facility after them. I've always thought this was silly. Honor someone while they're still alive to enjoy it! Especially in the case of Bert Blyleven, a Hall of Fame worthy pitcher who hasn't yet garnered the necessary support. Naming the yard after Blyleven could give him the extra votes necessary to get Bert over the Cooperstown hump.

4. Sometimes It Snows In April Stadium. Had to work in a Prince reference, and this song is perfect for an outdoor baseball theme. The acronym would be "Sisia," which is even somewhat melodious. Sisia Stadium. C'mon, it could be worse. Plus, it snowed yesterday; any other name might lead to accusations of false advertising.

3. Bob Dylan's Subterranean Hometown Park. Another not-dead candidate for naming, the Minnesota native's star power is undeniable. But his connections to baseball are tenuous, and he's even become a (shudder) Tigers fan with admiration for (big shudder) Derek Jeter. So this probably is a non-starter. Although the song parody potential is enticing: "Kirby's in the basement ..."

2. Sub-Prime Mortgage Stadium. This is an attempt at the reverse jinx. Given that selecting one of these names requires the team forswearing the big bucks, we'll need all the non-foreclosure mojo possible.

1. Paul Wellstone Park. Few deserve commemoration more than local hero Senator Wellstone -- who, sadly, meets the posthumous naming requirement. Moreover, Bud Selig hated him. In response to baseball's threats to contract the Twins, Wellstone became a force to revoke baseball's antitrust exemption. Venerate a respected man of integrity and piss off Bud Selig at the same time; this name is a win-win if ever one existed.

Can I get a Amen? Or if you have other ideas, leave them in the comments.

Posted by Jeff Shaw at April 7, 2008 4:41 PM | Comments (0)

 

Wade Boggs really likes Miller Lite

Filed under: MLB

If I could add anything to this story, I would. But I can't.

Posted by Jeff Shaw at April 5, 2008 7:10 PM | Comments (0)

 

Postcard from Below the Border

Filed under: MLB

Tough time to be away from the action on the homefront, although, as I type from the friendly confines of Acapulco, I`m earnestly reminded that the technology of today keeps us all intertwined. As the pesos tick away the minutes, I`m clawing away for information on our favorite club's onset of activity.

I watched the Dome Opener in Spanish, but it was evident, in any language, that Livan looked ever the ace as he went 7 strong, giving up only 2 runs with no walks while declining to eat barbacoa between innings. Furthermore, the debut of young Carlos Gomez also appeared fit for note with 2 hits, a walk, 2 steals and 2 runs (this should no doubt affect our MN angle of the Jo-Jo equation, although I read in The News out of Mexico City that Santana tossed a gem versus the lowly Marlins).

In addtion, I saw that Torii had himself a crappy Dome return with no hits and a K although he was well-received by the home crowd. As well he should have been -- Hunter was a great Twin, an active community guy, and the leader of slew of playoff teams. Still, as a bullish fish-salesman on the beach told me yesterday:"Es no victoria parecido victoria vencer viejo amigos . . ."

In game 2, however, it appeared that Boof got rocked fairly soundly, although he walked none (as can oftentimes be the case when leaving everything over the plate). In addition, the boxscore largely suggests that his relief corps did him few favors, and that perhaps Brian Bass got hooked in the mouth. Whether this debut is emblematic of why he was kept off M.L.B. rosters, surely time will time. And although Torii went hitless again (pressing too hard? Still missing those outside pitches?), it was nice to see that newcomers Delmon Young, and again, C. Gomez, are off to swift starts for the local nine.

I`m off, time for a cold one and avoidance of the condo sales folks that hounded my ass for nearly 3 hours this morning (although I did get a free omelette and a golf discount out of the deal).

In closure, I`m also happy to report that I've made initial contact with the representatives for the aforementioned hurler down here, Jorge Gomez Luis Rivas Gomez, whom the C.P. powers have asked that I thoroughly scout. I should be picked up by a truck of some sort tomorrow morning around 6, and then -- riding from the back -- I`ll allegedly be taken on a 2 hour ride up the coast where Gomez lives. I`ll be catching him with a Wilson mitt I found in my folks`garage and my lovely assistant will work the Jugs speed gun. If the kid lives up to the hype, he could be the next Fernando. With the aid of the hotel concierge, I`ll be working hard on my Spanish tonight.

Posted by Judd Spicer at April 2, 2008 2:27 PM | Comments (3)

 

2008 MLB Season Preview

Filed under: MLB

It was with little (American) fanfare that Boston and Oakland brought in the MLB season last week in Japan.With painfully early start times in the states (3:00 a.m. on the West Coast), the earliest "Opening Day" date in human history (Do the MLB powers not know what the hell a March Madness bracket is?), and with players donning advertisements akin to NASCAR racers (although Tokyo is kind of in "Southern" Japan) there was little buzz about the Eastern Opener.

However, despite the suspect start, we can all be restfully assured that baseball will pick up steam from here. For those that read my previous post, perhaps you're in agreement that the Twins will be blowing more smoke than said steam, or maybe that is just one guy's opinion.

Speaking of which, here's some additional opining on what to expect from other teams around the league, in my 2008 season preview of division winners, wild card clubs, and sleepers:

American League

A.L. West
Starting with baseball's smallest division, I find nothing minute about the chances of the Angels being great in '08. Coming off a 94-win season in which they won the West by six over Seattle, the L.A.A. of A. added OF Torii Hunter and P Jon Garland to the mix. Although the Angels didn't necessarily need Hunter, he'll man center while last year's starter, Gary Matthews, Jr. (no slouch himself) moves to a DH/4th outfield role. The other two guys out there? Just Vlad Guerrero and the aging, albeit silky-smooth Garret Anderson. That's just nasty. Speedy Chone Figgins will set the dish atop the lineup. They may run into some consistency issues with the hitting of the infielders, and the pre-season injuries to starters John Lackey and Kelvim Escobar won't bode well for their April -- but with Garland shoring things up as the projected No. 2 starter to date, a very good bullpen led by Scot Shields, and one of the game's top closers in Francisco Rodriguez, I'm liking the Angels to repeat behind one of the game's top Managers in Mike Scioscia.

A.L. East
Look for defending champs Boston to recapture their 2007 division crown here, and for the Yankees -- now sans the great patience and strength of Joe Torre -- to miss the postseason for the first time since 1994. The Red Sox' lineup is just plain crazy with young studs Jacoby Ellsbury and scrappy Dustin Pedroia setting the table for David Ortiz, Manny Ramirez, Mike Lowell, Kevin Youkilis, and J.D. Drew. The starting staff -- even without the injured Curt Schilling -- looks very nice, and the bullpen is among the league's best. Closer Jonathan Papelbon is, for my money, the tops in the game at his position, just as (again in my little mind) Fenway is the majors' best ballpark. Josh Beckett looks to be starting the season with some back issues; however I think young guns Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz will keep opponents honest enough until Beckett returns to his Cy-worthy self.

A.L. Central
For those that didn't see my prediction for the Twins, it's enough to say herein that the only "post" we'll be enjoying after 162 games will be of the cereal variety. Instead, I see the breakfast buffet being feasted upon by Detroit. Although I'm not necessarily buying into the merits that newly acquired Dontrelle Willis will offer their starting staff, I'm investing all I've got into the numbers that the other ex-Marlin catch, Miguel Cabrera, will add to the lineup. Offensively, this club is just stacked, 1-9, and terrific Manger Jimmy Leyland will likely pencil in his order akin to the following, according to ESPN: Edgar Renteria-Placido Polanco-Gary Sheffield-Magglio Ordonez-Miguel Carbrera-Carlos Guillen-Ivan Rodriguez-Brandon Inge-Jacque Jones. Note that stud CF Curtis Granderson will start the year on the 15-day DL, and will likely be replaced by Inge until his return. Relief pitching and defense will produce some problems for this group, and they should be involved in ample higher-scoring affairs, even though their starting staff is pretty solid with Justin Verlander at the top, and sneaky veteran Kenny Rogers at the bottom. In short: How the hell are the Boof Bonsers of the world gonna slow down these bats for 6 innings in a row?

A.L. Wild Card
Having already said that the Yankees and Twins won't be here, I'm going with Seattle to snag the 4th and final post-season slot. The Mariners, coming off a solid 88-win '07, lost little in the offseason, and bolstered their starting staff with the likes of Erik Bedard, and streaky ex-Twin Carlos Silva. Furthermore, the lineup looks nice and sneaky with less-heralded, albeit battle-tested guys like Jose Vidro, Raul Ibanez, and Jose Lopez mixing in between the better-knowns Adrian Beltre and Richie Sexson. And then, of course, atop the order is the great Ichiro Suzuki who has hit at least .303 and stolen 31 bases in every year since he came to the U.S. in 2001. There are some questions in the bullpen, and closer J.J. Putz may turn out to be one, but if young hurler Felix Hernandez lives up to the hype and Sexson hits his 40 bombs, these guys will beat out both the aforementioned pinstripes and the tribe in a tight wild card race.

A.L. Sleeper
Toronto hasn't made the playoffs since they won the series in '93, and they have finished above 3rd in the A.L. East just once since that time. But if they stay healthy in '08, the Blue Jays are my American League sleeper club for the season. The left side of the St. Louis Cardinals' infield from last year has migrated north, with 2-time World Series champ David Eckstein now at SS, and Scott Rolen at 3B. Rolen looks to miss the first month with a fractured finger, but this is a guy who has played more than 151 games just thrice in a 12-plus M.L.B. seasons. Again, it's the health factor with this club: Tough lefty closer B.J. Ryan is coming off Tommy John surgery and doesn't look to be ready to do much in April. No. 2 starter A.J. Burnett is perennially hurt. Starting 1B Lyle Overbay broke his hand last year. But with Roy Halladay atop the rotation, and stud hitters like Alex Rios, Vernon Wells, and Frank Thomas meshing with the aforementioned, seasoned infielders, these dudes have the potential to win 90.

National League

N.L. West
In what I believe to be baseball's toughest division, I'm looking for defending N.L. Champs Colorado to be atop after 162, with San Diego, Arizona, and the Dodgers jockeying for a tough 2nd. The Rockies rocked-out 90-wins in '07, and possess a great lineup with the likes of Willy Taveras, Troy Tulowitzki, Todd Helton, Matt Holliday, Garrett Atkins, and Brad Hawpe going 1-6. The Helton/Holiday adjacency in the order is the best back-to-back in the N.L., and- for my money- compares with Manny/Big Papi in the A.L. Pitching wise, young lefty Jeff Francis should anchor a decent rotation, although it should be readily noted that the Rocks have a tough bullpen with Brain Fuentes and Manny Corpas. Over the duration of the season, the lineup will be too much for their competitive divisional opponents to handle.

N.L. East
The Mets took a nose dive at the closure of last year, and Philly took the Division by a game. Look for that incentive, plus the addition of Johan Santana and the health of Pedro Martinez to propel N.Y. to the title in '08. True, the Mets are starting the year with an active trainer's room, but once the season gets moving, their lineup features so much balance, neither age nor injury will stop them. With a great combination of speed (Jose Reyes), savvy (Luis Castillo), power (David Wright, Carlos Beltran, Carlos Delgado), and incoming talent (Ryan Church, Brian Schneider), N.Y. should reach 95-wins by beating opponents in myriad forms. Add a strong rotation and a veteran closer in Billy Wagner to the mix, and their average bullpen shouldn’t slow them much.

N.L. Central
This is a screwy Division with about 76 teams- but only one of them is the clear choice to rise atop: the Cubs. The Brewers should finish above-.500 again, but Lou Piniella-led Chicago has a very sound 2-5 in the lineup, led by Alfonso Soriano and Derrek Lee. The addition of Japanese-import Kosuke Fukudome, and the ascension of CF Felix Pie adds further intrigue. Their rotation has a few questions beyond ace Carlos Zambrano, but the bullpen is sound, and Kerry Wood should prove a tough closer if -- as per usual -- he can stay on the field. The Cubs won the Division with 85-wins last year. Look for them to better that total by a handful of games in '08.

N.L. Wild Card
In what will be a zany wild card race, I like the San Diego Padres to act the proverbial patriarch, "fathering" the rest of the pack in what should be an extremely close race between
themselves, Philly, Arizona, and L.A. Their starting staff look very tight with the great Jake Peavy leading the way before Chris Young, Greg Maddux, and Randy Wolf. The bullpen is solid, and veteran closer Trevor Hoffman- with his 524 career saves- should have something left in the tank to add to that total. The lineup is sneaky with Brian Giles, Adrian Gonzalez, and ex-Chi Sox 2B Tadahito Iguchi mixing with a young left-side of the infield in SS Khalil Greene and 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff. They also added the aging, albeit oft-injured Jimmy Edmonds, and veteran slugger Tony Clark should pop the occasional bomb off the bench. These guys won 89 games last year, and really lost little in the offseason.

N.L. Sleeper
Perennially, I have a weird/bad habit of delving into the boxscores of strange teams on a daily basis. For '08, my strange team is Washington. The team unveils a new, $600 stadium that they'll fill with a bizarre and somewhat ratty lineup that I believe will surprise many, and surpass their 73- ins from last season. But the names intrigue, in the forms of Cristian Guzman, Lastings Milledge, Austin Kearns, Paul Lo Duca, Elijah Dukes, Wily Mo Pena, Ryan Zimmerman, and the 1B combo plate of Nick Johnson/Dmitri Young. The latter has some health issue to confront, but he did hit .320 last year. And although the starting staff is morbid, their bullpen features enough talent to bail them of more than a few games. Playoffs? Hell no -- but they could surprise with 85 wins.

Blogger's Note: Based on the early success with this blog, the powers at City Pages have seen fit to send Yours Truly down to Acapulco, Mexico for ten days, for the purpose of scouting a little-known pitching talent named Jorge Gomez Luis Rivas Gomez. I'm being shipped off on 3/31, armed with only a catcher’s mitt and a speed gun. I'll post from the road as I'm able, however if I'm not back by 4/11, tell my mom that I love her, and put a Kirby Puckett quote on my gravestone.

Posted by Judd Spicer at March 31, 2008 5:00 AM | Comments (3)

 

(Chunky) Minnesota Twins 2008 Season Preview

Filed under: MLB

"The identity you think you are does not exist." -- Source and Date Unknown

And so it begins. But before we delve into what the answers are for this 2008 campaign, we must first recognize the questions, the most important of which is: WHAT THE HELL ARE WE? What are we? A small market club building toward the proverbial future (with a payroll nearing $70 million)? A retooled American League Sleeper just one season removed from a divisional title? Cheapskates? A team waiting in the weeds, preparing to pounce in 2010 upon the unveiling of our still-to-be named, uncovered (please note predicted temperature of this year's Opening Day) ballpark? Or perhaps, like so many other clubs: sanguine, hopeful, grinding, streaky, enigmatic, and perhaps, woefully average.

I don't know. And truly, nobody does. But as the season began halfway around the world earlier in the dawn of this writing day, and our home opener arrives in less than a week, the answers will slowly come. And, in my opinion for this version of the Twins, so will the questions ...

There is no doubt that we have talent, more so than probably half the teams in the A.L. But it's the other half that concerns me. And while I'll detail other clubs in my ensuing M.L.B. Preview, I'll simply say herein that Boston, Detroit, the Angels, and Seattle are clearly better than us. Furthermore, I'd have to say that the Yankees and Cleveland are above us as well. Lastly, I look for Toronto to be pretty solid, and also for the White Sox to rebound. So, in my mind -- we're about the 7th best team in the American League. That's not playoff ready. With Santana at the top of the rotation -- or should GM Bill Smith have been able to trigger the Johan trade with the Red Sox for Jacoby Ellsbury and Jon Lester -- I'd put us at 4th, ahead of the aforementioned Mariners. But alas, we got what we got and did what we did, and our roster is ready for battle. Let's look at a few numbers:

Last year, the Twins scored 718 runs, ranking them 12th among A.L. teams. Gone from that equation is Torii Hunter, who scored a team-high 94 of said runs, and drove in 107, second on the club behind Justin Morneau's 111. Hunter (who is allegedly considering removing the second "i" from his name in a newfound measure of L.A. chic) has essentially been replaced in the lineup by the young and beefy Delmon Young, who once ate an entire busload of schoolchildren during an off-day. Nonetheless, dude can really hit, as evidenced by his awesome 2007 in which the former #1 overall draft selection played every game, accrued 93 R.B.I. on a crappy Tampa Bay squad, and hit a very solid .288, while finishing 2nd in Rookie of the Year balloting.

In addition, Michael Lamb should do his .281-thing at the plate, although defensively he'll make Nick Punto look like Brooks Robinson. Adam Everett, he of the .997 career fielding percentage, is a major defensive upgrade at SS over Jason Bartlett, although the juice with that trade-off is that Everett has hit above .256 just once in his seven seasons of Major League service. Also notable is the DH slot where longtime Twin-killer Craig Monroe, and his .304 lifetime average at the Dome, will match with the supposedly-ascending Jason Kubel to instill great fear in whomever the #5 starters are for the Royals, Rays, Rangers, and Orioles, respectively. At 2B, Brendan Harris will likely share time with Punto (as will Lamb at 3B). Like Lamb, the ball looks like a Lion to Harris and he should piss off Gardy in short time with questionable fielding and suspect turning of double play balls. His acceptable lifetime average of .273, however, should behoove the bottom of the order.

And then there's Carlos Gomez, whom the Twins acquired from the Mets in the Santana trade- becoming the lone principle from the transaction to make our roster. Gomez, by all accounts, is loaded with crazy potential. At 22, he'll man Center Field, having won the spot over Denard Span, the team's top draft pick back in 2002. That doesn’t bode well for Span, for whom I felt pretty bad. The guy had himself a strong spring, hitting .282, stealing 3 bases, while committing 0 errors in 16 games and talking some smack that he ultimately backed up. Gomez' speed, as evidenced by his Spring A.L. best (tied) 10 steals, is, without question, a tantalizing talent to have at the top of our lineup that should follow with the studly likes of Joe Mauer, Michael Cuddyer, Morneau and Young. But I fear we'll all soon learn that batting leadoff in the Bigs requires additional talents (e.g. Patience, Bunting) that may still be beyond his years.

Relating from a personal anecdote, I recall a meeting of "cuts" at the onset of season back when I was assistant coaching Varsity baseball, and the head coach sliced a kid, a senior, who was decent enough talent-wise, but who had ultimately, I felt, put in the time required during his high school career to be given -- if nothing else -- an earnest opportunity to succeed at the highest level. Alas, he was cut in favor of a younger kid with more upside. And the senior? He walked out of that meeting room bawling his eyes out -- and I couldn’t blame him. Accordingly to recent reports out of Fort Myers, Span was said to have done the same ...

Here's how the lineups compare from Opening Day 2007, to this year:

2007 2008
L. Castilo- 2B C. Gomez- CF
N. Punto- 3B J. Mauer- C
J. Mauer- C M. Cuddyer- RF
M. Cuddyer- RF J. Morneau- 1B
J. Morneau- 1B D. Young- LF
T. Hunter- CF C.Monroe/J. Kubel- DH
R. White- LF M. Lamb- 3B
J. Cirillo- DH B. Harris- 2B
J. Bartlett- SS A. Everett- SS

Moving onto the hurlers, I'll exercise brevity in saying that the bullpen should again be amongst the A.L.'s best. Joe Nathan's recent signing of a contract extension was nicely timed by GM Smith, and should boost confidence and morale. While the vast dollar amount has its doubters, I'm all for it -- it's not my money and Nathan has 160 saves since arriving in Minnesota in '03. Otherwise, the middle relievers look to be very strong and very similar to our recent past. Journeyman Brian Bass, despite a funny name, had a great spring and will likely come north with the club as the 12th pitcher. Bass also has the valuable ability to spot start if needed.

Which brings us to the rotation, which compares as such from Opening Day 2007 to this year:

2007 2008
J. Santana- L L. Hernandez- R
B. Bonser- R B. Bonser- R
R. Ortiz- R K. Slowey- R
C. Silva- R N. Blackburn- R
S. Ponson- R

Note that I opaquely left both Scott Baker and "The Franchise," Francisco Liriano off of the Opening Day list- that's just my gut. Despite his great spring showing on 3/23, those who know far more about ligaments than yours truly have duly noted how gingerly the Twins have handled Liriano post-Tommy John surgery. Add to that the recent reports in which Gardy oft-attached the word "leery" to his speculations of Liriano's Opening Day readiness, and in my mind we have an extended spring training for "The Franchise."

I'm thinking that Baker will start the year on the D.L. given his recent lat injury and flu bug, and that Liriano won't see a great deal of action in April. Look for the "Fisherman" to get those aforementioned spot starts on Friday, April, 4, against K.C., and perhaps again on Monday, April 14th at Detroit.

All told, the club's projected 4 starters (combined with the injured/Bass) have a Total of 183 big league wins. Sounds acceptable, yes? Perhaps -- until one looks at the fact that 134 of those W's come compliments of Hernandez who was 11-11 last year, has never won 18 games in a season, and has seen his win totals decline for three consecutive years.

And therein, for me, sports fans, lies the rub. The Twins should have an improved offensive standing in the A.L. this year, Everett will shore up the Defense, and Gomez will no doubt have moments that leave moths agape -- but at the end of the day, our strong bullpen, and the great Nathan, will only save our starters' asses so many times. Expect higher scoring games accounting for both victory, and loss, in 2008. The young staff surely has some terrific potential and talent, but unless Liriano can rediscover his 2006 form, miss minimal time and astound us with 25 wins of his own, we may need binoculars to view the wild card from Metrodome come August.

My prediction: 81-81 (what can I say- I like synchronicity ...)

Posted by Judd Spicer at March 26, 2008 6:47 AM | Comments (8)

 

The Jo-Jo Equation

Filed under: MLB

It's no mystery that Minnesotan sports fans are the strong possessors of the strange and unique tenet known kindly as Nostalgia. That may be putting it nicely.  Another way of noting this will be emblematic, in time, as evidenced by the great Sid Hartman's eventual gravestone which will surely include the fact that Rick Rickert signed a new two-year contract to hoop in Turkey, or some such place ... 

That said (and readily admitting that I've read Sid since the early-'80's), it must be in my Minnesota blood to shiver at the sight of Johan Santana in Mets' blue, and red, and black. "Breaking up is hard to do," as the bard once sang, especially when your former chick is a two-time Cy Young winner who should really possess three such awards (if not for a lack of run-support in '05), and whom I personally consider to be not just the top hurler in the game, but also one of the best athletes in all of professional sport.  
 
In addition, the trade that sent Santana to the Mets was largely unpopular here in town, and I would agree with said sentiment, in short, because I truly think that the Twins are a fairly solid club this year, and, with Santana, would have had the opportunity to compete for a post-season slot.  Furthermore, should we have obtained major-league-ready-talent in the trade, I feel that too would have behooved us to improve our chances for the Second Season. But alas, we settled for prospects.  Good ones, no doubt, in the respective forms of outfielder Carlos Gomez, and pitchers Kevin Mulvey, Philip (don't call me "Phil") Humber, and Deolis Guerra.  And while a popular, local blogger rated these four among the organization's top 8 prospects in a recent 3/10/08 post, I think he would agree that even if both Gomez and Humber start the season with the the Big Club, the 2008 Twins are surely, and sadly, worse-for-wear sans Jo-Jo.  
 
Again, it's in the blood. There's something specific within the grains of our Bread Basket DNA that just won't allow us to forget, won’t let us let go.  To wit: I don’t necessarily know why I know that our former 2B Luis Rivas is trying to catch on with the lowly Pittsburgh Pirates at present -- I JUST DO.  I can't explain it. That information is surely housed in the same space in my brain that, for reasons unexplained, knows who the hell Annabella Sciorra is (and how to spell her name) and what films she's starred in over the years. I don’t want to know that, and there are without any doubt far more important matters that could and surely should fill this part of my rear lobe, but alas, this is what's in there. This is what I know. Luis Rivas is currently hitting .387 in the Grapefruit League by the way ...
 
And so, we have the Jo-Jo Equation.  And the aim of said math is to track the quality and pathos of the Santana trade over the course of the year, comparing the great Santana's numbers with the principals our favorite club received in the trade. And while it's always been readily apparent since the trade was orchestrated that the Twins were exchanging Proof for Hope, the Jo-Jo Equation will thus compensate for Minor League stats in the following way:
 
Minor League numbers accrued will receive the following Point Totals at their respective levels of play:
 
-AAA Rochester
Pitching: 1/2 point for a win, a strikeout, or a save. 
Hitting: 1/2 point for each total base, a stolen base, or an RBI.  
Fielding: 1/2 point for an assist, and a negative 1/2 point for an error.
 
-Below this level, all point totals are worth 1/3.  (Even though the AA level is more about grooming the MLB prospects, rarely is the jump made from here to the Big Show).
 
-For all Major League numbers accrued, full points are awarded/deducted in the same areas.
 
Now, there are no doubt another 589 statistical categories that could be implemented here to further examine and compare Santana with the 4 fellas now on our side -- but let's stick to the basics, I say, and see how the tally comes out. On a monthly basis, I'll be punching in the totals on this front, and will post the comparisons in this space.
 
It's in the blood.  Now I just need to figure out which way is upright with this abacus.

Posted by Judd Spicer at March 19, 2008 10:17 AM | Comments (12)

 

It don't mean a thing, if it ain't got that Spring

Filed under: MLB

Well, no hints nor flavor on the Bonds front as of yet (from any club -- Japan included), although our boys have begun to find an early collective rhythm through a dozen spring training games. Our record stands at both an A.L., and Grapefruit League-best 8-4 (from a % standpoint), and key pieces of the proverbial puzzle have shown early signs of success.

Delmon Young has surely been the Spring standout, and has been seemingly seeing hardballs the size of Grapefruits, as evidenced by his leviathan .474 average, and 12 total bases. Somebody called Randy Ruiz should also be noted for an impressive showing, with a .450 average and 17 total bases -- although he's a "Non-Roster Invitee," dons #73 and has yet to play an MLB game.

In addition, from a player standpoint, Francisco Liriano now seems to be finding something of an introductory groove back into the live pitching cycle, and Twins Country was able to collectively exhale when "The Franchise" tossed a solid 1 2/3 against the Red Sox on March 7 and didn't walk off the mound screaming "OH MY SWEET LORD MY ARM HAS NEVER BEEN THIS SHADE OF LAVENDER AND I CAN'T FEEL MY THUMBS!!!"

But what does all this mean? Well, the spring season is no doubt important for answering individual personnel questions, evaluating position battles, and gauging the respective health statuses of those harboring injury or returning from off-season injury. From a pure record standpoint, though, a stroll along the base paths of Springs Yore tells us that a club's record in spring means as much as a Sidney Ponson work visa. From 2003-'07, here are the respective percentages of teams who accrued Top 10 MLB Spring Training records who then ultimately went on to make the playoffs in said year:

2003: 30%
2004: 50%
2005: 20%
2006: 20%
2007: 30%

Furthermore, it should be noted that the past five World Series champions have amassed a combined record of 76-71 in the Spring, with two of these clubs posting below .500 records (Florida in 2003; Chi Sox in 2005) in the season before the season. In addition, these same 5 years have seen only a single instance in which a Top 10 spring team made it to the series (with Boston and St. Louis both noted in 2004). Lastly in this regard, it's perhaps notable that lowly Cincinnati has proven a perennial Grapefruit League powerhouse, with not just a winning record going into today's posting, but with winning spring records for four years running. The Reds have found the post-season just once since 1990. Perhaps new skip Dusty Baker can turn it around for them. But DON'T go to their website: It will hurt your eyes. I'm not kidding.

With Opening Day about three weeks away for our favorite club, let's focus on those position battles (especially in center field, where candidates Carlos Gomez, Denard Span, and Jason Pridie all still have a plethora of "proving" to do), and not get too caught up in the outcome of ballgames. The lure of the grapefruit, what with it's wealth of Vitamin C and the antioxidant lycopene, should be approached with measured consumption. One or two taste good and are no doubt good for you. More than that and you're risking an acidic gut and the emergence of canker sores.

Posted by Judd Spicer at March 11, 2008 1:18 PM | Comments (13)

 

Sure it's scary -- but why not Barry? Judd Spicer blogs the Twins

Filed under: MLB

Editor's Note: Today we introduce our Twins blogger for the season, Judd Spicer. Judd will be checking in with dispatches once or twice a week through Spring Training and once the season begins. In his first piece, he makes the case for Minnesota's pursuit of a fellow you may have heard of.

The Twins may need Barry Bonds to be winners in 2008. And while I wholly realize how stupid that sounds, what with the club honing their proverbial "Pluck," and "Fundamental Play," and "Small Market-ness," and "Sandlot" skills and tenets down in Fort Myers, the fact remains that our favorite club enters the 2008 season with more questions than answers, sans longtime team leaders/luminaries Torii Hunter and Johan Santana, and coming off a year in which they finished four games under-.500 even with those celebrated dudes.

Now I happen to believe that the addition of shortstop Adam Everett will shore up the left side of the infield and keep us sound defensively, just as I am of the view that the ascension of Scott Baker, the arrival of Livan Hernandez, and our omnipresent bullpen should have the the staff at/near our strong MLB standing of last year. Yet, the historical production (or lack thereof) of our offense, especially in the DH slot, begs the inquiry: Why not Barry?

I don't like Barry, and am by no means a Bonds apologist. I think he's certainly guilty of steroid use, and I'm anxious to see how his federal perjury charge plays out. But given that Barry's next court date isn't until March 21st (for which he's not set to personally appear), that it took close to 3 years for the government to to arrange said charge, and that his legal team would seemingly arrange for the wheels of justice to turn torpidly should their client find gainful employment during the season -- I'm thinking Barry will be available for the right team come Opening Day.

And that team could, and should be the Twins. Let's break this down further. Given Barry's advanced age (43), we can assume that no NL team will touch him. The guy isn’t playing outfield anymore. He's a DH. Furthermore, within the 14 clubs the make up the AL, I believe that we can eliminate all the following teams from hiring Barry, for the assigned reasons:

The Red Sox, Toronto, Detroit, Cleveland, L.A., Chicago, and Seattle are all set at the DH. The Yankees would have made the splash already if they were going to do so. Oakland is too cheap. And Tampa (yech) spilled the beans recently that they were flirting with the notion of Bonds, but let's face it: Would Bonds really toil with a club that has never accrued a winning season? That just leaves K.C., Baltimore (who had a solid platoon at the position in '07), and Texas. The Rangers actually seem an the only other potentially agreeable fit.

And then there's us. Dating back to 2002, the Twins haven't had more than 18 homers or 59 RBI from an individual in the DH slot, and both those numbers comes from back in '02, compliments of Big Poopy before he was Big Papi. Since then, our individual home run leading Designated Hitters have accrued the following totals: 9 in '03; 5 in '04; 14 in '05; 2 in '06; 4 in '07. It's also worthy to note from a historical perspective that our favorite club has only once ranked in the top 10 for MLB runs scored since the millennium, that occurring back in '03 when we ranked 10th. And lastly, rounding up to modern day, it should be noted that -- for what Spring Training numbers are worth -- the Twins have only two individual multi-hit performances through March 5, and rank 23rd in home runs.

From a cost standpoint, Bonds had a base salary of $15-plus million last year, almost exactly what the Twins cut in payroll for '08 -- although nobody would pay Barry that sum today.

Signing Barry Bonds in Minnesota would no doubt receive polar reviews and surely there would be opinions akin to the Wild's recent trade for barbaric Chris Simon. But if new GM Bill Smith wants a label other than "the fella that let popular, effective, albeit exorbitantly-priced veterans Hunter and Santana go elsewhere," signing Bonds could be his chance.

Should you, gentle reader, desire to contact Barry to lobby for his services, take a stroll to his web site, and simply ignore the message bearing "Send Barry a short note to show your support and congratulate him." If you'd like to write him, feel free to begin with an introductory sentence that goes something like, "Dear Muscle-Bound-Megalomaniacal-Cheating-Perjuring-Dick . . .."

He may not appreciate that, but, if nothing else, he'll know that we're forthright here in the Bread Basket. And honest. Hell, in the end, we really don’t care about being his buddy. We just want his bat.
-- Judd Spicer

Posted by Jeff Shaw at March 6, 2008 5:37 AM | Comments (10)

 

You're Not Fully Clean!

Filed under: MLB

I have always believed Roger Clemens' declaration that he has never used steroids.

It's a matter of trust, and having confidence in people with a record of veracity. Clemens has a long record of expressing firm convictions.

I believed him when, after he threw a broken bat at Mike Piazza, he claimed that he was just trying to help out the batboys. I believed him when he changed his story to "I thought it was the ball," and I believed him when he changed his story to "I wasn't sure what it was, but I picked it up anyway."

This is why we can look back on this advertisement from 1987 and sing along with Roger, "You're not fully clean unless you're Zestfully clean!" Because we can say with surety that he is.

I believed him each of the three times he has declared his intention to retire. And I believe him now. Again. It was Vitamin B-12, you hear me? He still takes it! For his joints!

We believe you, Roger! You're Zestfully clean!

Posted by Jeff Shaw at January 7, 2008 5:19 PM | Comments (0)

 

Bert Blyleven is absolutely a Hall of Famer

Filed under: MLB

Okay, I don't mean for this to become a Hot Stove baseball blog, and I originally intended to do an analysis of the Delmon Young-Matt Garza trade today, but first I want to point you to today's post
on Baseball Reference's Stat of the Day blog. It's about Bert Blyleven's Hall of Fame candidacy. B-R posts Blyleven's stat lines against Hall of Fame hitters, and while that's not a case in and of itself for why the former Twin ought to be enshrined himself, I think you'll find the results intriguing.

If you want to read what convinced me of the statement I make in the subject line of this post, my old friend Rich Lederer has been on something of a personal crusade on Blyleven's behalf over the years, and I just think his arguments are much stronger than the opposing side's.

Posted by Jeff Shaw at November 29, 2007 11:57 AM | Comments (1)

 

Pi Press: Want Budding Stars? Offer to Trade 'em a Free Agent

Filed under: MLB

The wise baseball analyst is always looking to enhance long-term value by trading expensive established players for young, inexpensive stars. The Pio Press' Bob Sansevere has ascertained an innovative way for maximizing value in this scenario: trading players your team doesn't have the rights to.

In his latest piece, the writer outlines his ideal trade scenario:

If I'm the Twins' general manager, here's what I do. (And I'd do it under duress because I'd be working for a cheapskate owner.) I get on the horn with Boston Red Sox general manager Theo Epstein and say, "You want Johan Santana, right?"

Epstein likely will say, "Right."

Then I say, "Tell you what. I'll trade you Santana and Carlos Silva and Joe Nathan."

This is where Sansevere's genius comes in. Silva is a free agent. But Epstein won't find that out until after he's accepted the trade! "Ha," we'll say! "Thanks for your young stars, sucker!" It's foolproof, the ultimate money for nothing.

See, perception is reality. Like staking a flag into an island when you don't see anyone else there, claiming rights to trade a free agent is the ultimate economic comparative advantage for a team. Is a free agent wearing a uniform? I didn't think so. That's why they call them "free" agents; they're free to be claimed.

Like Galileo, Sansevere has come under some criticism for this insight, but he is merely ahead of his time. Indeed, his main problem was not going far enough. What if this "trade-theRed-Sox-a-free-agent" strategy had been developed while Alex Rodriguez was still on the market? The Twins could have traded the Sox the future Hall of Famer from right out from under the Yankees.

Shortsighted bloggers should take a lesson from this type of forward-thinking analysis. In future years we may refer to Silva as Opposite Day Curt Flood.

The Sansevere Theorem is a stunning step forward in the science of trade equity. It's the baseball equivalent of John Marshall's legal declaration that Indian tribes west of the Mississippi were nevertheless domestic of and dependent upon the United States -- even though they were as yet unknown to settlers. It takes a bold general manager to simply assert that all free agents are assets your team has a right to. Perhaps the next step is to find a way to claim rights to all potential free agents.

I'm getting ahead of myself, though. There is still time to make up for missing out on trading A-Rod. After dealing free agent Silva away to the Sox, the Twins should then flip Kent Hrbek and Kirby Puckett to the Yankees for Alex Rodriguez. A-Rod would fill the Twins' third base hole and Puckett, being dead, would not take up valuable payroll space. This would please owner Carl Pohlad and free us up to pursue another free agent.

Except we never need to pursue free agents again: just trade them. See the beauty of this?

Posted by Jeff Shaw at November 28, 2007 7:06 PM | Comments (0)

 

Hot Stove: Why it's Good That the Twins Didn't Re-Sign Torii Hunter

Filed under: MLB

(Here's my clever, non-ironic subtitle: and why it'll be even better when they don't re-sign Carlos Silva. Yes, I'm serious, and we'll talk about Silva in detail when he signs).

Few expected Torii Hunter to be back in a Twins uniform next season, so the fact that he signed with the Angels for five years and scads of money that the A.P. reports to be $90 million is no surprise. You'll likely still hear friends, neighbors and pundits bemoaning the departure of the star center fielder.

You shouldn't listen.

After you've eaten your last slice of pie and reflected on all you have to be thankful for, you should add this to the list -- that the Twins aren't going to pay Hunter a premium based on what he did in years past. This team needs to look hard at what players are likely to do in the future, and there's a miniscule chance that Hunter is performing up to this contract by year three -- let alone the final two years, when he'll be 36 and 37 years old, respectively.

David Cameron is one of the sharpest baseball minds I know, and he listed Hunter as the most dangerous landmine in the free agent market this month. Carlos Silva was number two. I'll summarize Dave's argument thusly: it doesn't make sense to commit tons of cash to a player who is getting older, and though talented, isn't as stellar as his name value indicates.

In the short term, it'll sting to lose Hunter's offensive punch, especially given the Judy-without-the-Punch offense the Twins are running out there these days. In the long run, though, this is the right move. Especially when your team has chosen not to be a big-budget player, avoiding commitment to players through their decline years is essential. It's frustrating to watch established players leave, and I'm a big Hunter fan. But it makes more sense to catch players on their way up.

Posted by Jeff Shaw at November 22, 2007 5:13 PM | Comments (0)